Brian5671 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, eduggs said: It amazes me that people keep looking at ensemble charts out beyond 14 days. They have effectively no skill. We have seen it over and over, yet people don't learn the lesson. If there's light way out there at the end of tunnel, you won't see it coming until it's much closer. Often it will just surprise you in the mid-range. This. It's been mostly LR fantasy this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 7 hours ago, MJO812 said: You have been on the mark but you are still the only one that thinks winter is over. Then I have been the only one that’s been correct…. I guess no more PM’s from you…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: You have been on the mark but you are still the only one that thinks winter is over. Thats actually not true, I think we are pretty much cooked this winter also. If we get a one hit wonder 30" blizzard so be it. 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Then I have been the only that’s been correct…. I guess no more PM’s from you…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 2 hours ago, Big Jims Videos said: 54 degrees in Clifton where I am now for work. This “winter” is trash. FYP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Thats actually not true, I think we are pretty much cooked this winter also. If we get a one hit wonder 30" blizzard so be it. So we should just all quit this forum and stop tracking for the rest of the winter. Very premature calls by a few people on here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 1 hour ago, North and West said: Additionally, putting AGW aside for a moment (not discounting it, just not having it in the conversation for the time being), this is very much like the early and late 1990s for those too young to remember. We’ve had these winters before. (Yes, I know that it’s warmer; I’m referring to the rain and then cooldown then cutter, repeat) I distinctly remember daytime thunderstorms in or around January 1991, because I remember Sam Champion going over the radar on Channel 7 on the news when I got home from grammar school. . Any winter where we have a raging zonal Pacific jet will be a failure for us. The whole continent is flooded with maritime air, it encourages the SE Ridge and any threat is ruined because it will want to cut way west of us. We need major changes- for the PV to reestablish on our side of the pole, the PNA to amplify and some blocking to appear which would hopefully make a dent in the corresponding raging SE Ridge. I see some hope in the longer range but nothing I would jump on. Quite likely Jan is ruined and now we’re hoping for Feb to improve. Feb in a Nina is usually horrible in the East (although I know what’s going on resembles a Nino in some ways). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Typical Nina but this weather pattern isn't acting like a Nina.Not yet because of the Nino like PAC jet extension. Once it retracts and the MJO (Phases 3-6) convection starts constructively interfering with the La Niña come the start of February you should see a climo canonical Niña pattern take over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: So we should just all quit this forum and stop tracking for the rest of the winter. Very premature calls by a few people on here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: More weenies for you since you cancel all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: More weenies for you since you cancel all the time. Got to take off the snow goggles-3 of the last 4 years have not been great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Currently, Winter 2022-2023 ranks among the 10 worst winters to date in NYC through January 12th (standardized temperatures and snowfall). 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 ignorant question, but i dont really know anything aside from looking at models and i just want some damn snow. if there were to be a nor'easter this season, about how fast do they develop? they're relatively fast forming storms right? just wondering if it would be hard for a model to pick up on one more than 5 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 I wonder how many times the AO was -4 or lower in December that it DID NOT return later that Winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Just now, vegan_edible said: ignorant question, but i dont really know anything aside from looking at models and i just want some damn snow. if there were to be a nor'easter this season, about how fast do they develop? they're relatively fast forming storms right? just wondering if it would be hard for a model to pick up on one more than 5 days out Big storms are usually sniffed out 10 days in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Currently, Winter 2022-2023 ranks among the 10 worst winters to date in NYC through January 12th (standardized temperatures and snowfall). It definitely feels like a late 90s winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I wonder how many times the AO was -4 or lower in December that it DID NOT return later that Winter? 5/11 (45%) cases. January-February Lowest AO in such winters: 1950-51: -2.718 1963-64: -3.371 1965-66: -2.225 1995-96: -3.607 2010-11: -3.806 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 50 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Not yet because of the Nino like PAC jet extension. Once it retracts and the MJO (Phases 3-6) convection starts constructively interfering with the La Niña come the start of February you should see a climo canonical Niña pattern take over I think you attribute too much causal certainty to ENSO, MJO, and other climate indices. Most of the correlations are weak, and the indices themselves, broadly defined. There is a lot of randomness in weather outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Any winter where we have a raging zonal Pacific jet will be a failure for us. The whole continent is flooded with maritime air, it encourages the SE Ridge and any threat is ruined because it will want to cut way west of us. We need major changes- for the PV to reestablish on our side of the pole, the PNA to amplify and some blocking to appear which would hopefully make a dent in the corresponding raging SE Ridge. I see some hope in the longer range but nothing I would jump on. Quite likely Jan is ruined and now we’re hoping for Feb to improve. Feb in a Nina is usually horrible in the East (although I know what’s going on resembles a Nino in some ways). I’ll be honest with you: half of the stuff you just said to me sounded like the nanny in Muppet Babies.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Agree. Also WRT your AGW comment, I feel like if I do not acknowledge AGW in a post about the past I ruffle feathers for some reason. That should never be the case though. I too believe that we are warming for a couple of reasons, but I disagree with some who believe we are in a new era and we are the next Miami (I hope someone does not feel the need to reply and argue my opinion). We will have another great period again in the future just hope we do not wait 30 years again Right. Is it happening? Absolutely. Are we now Atlanta? Ehh…I feel more and more like my dad who counseled me to have patience when I had ZERO snow days in grammar school (1987 through 1993) until the absolute last minute, March 1993.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 58 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Any winter where we have a raging zonal Pacific jet will be a failure for us. The whole continent is flooded with maritime air, it encourages the SE Ridge and any threat is ruined because it will want to cut way west of us. We need major changes- for the PV to reestablish on our side of the pole, the PNA to amplify and some blocking to appear which would hopefully make a dent in the corresponding raging SE Ridge. I see some hope in the longer range but nothing I would jump on. Quite likely Jan is ruined and now we’re hoping for Feb to improve. Feb in a Nina is usually horrible in the East (although I know what’s going on resembles a Nino in some ways). We could have gotten a coastal snowstorm this weekend if the multiple shortwaves interacted just a little differently. The trof axis has good amplitude and orientation and there is sufficient cold air available. Snowstorms are local phenomena that depend on nuances in features and their evolution. Yes the background airmass and longwave jet structure is important, but it's usually the minor details that deliver snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Maybe the WAR gets this a bit further west? Eastern LI keep watching. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Maybe we can at least get the 84 corridor back in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: So we should just all quit this forum and stop tracking for the rest of the winter. Very premature calls by a few people on here. Not at all! We should stay on the forum, both to commiserate and to continue learning from one-another. There is definitely much to be gained from refining our abilities to sniff out the warning signs of a crumby winter in advance and theorize about what might get us out of the snow slump we are in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Maybe the WAR gets this a bit further west? Eastern LI keep watching. Yeah there's enough time for it to do so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 CMC/gfs both trended way colder and now show some snow for our region with the storm late next week. Probably won’t happen but at this point desperate enough to track anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Maybe we can at least get the 84 corridor back in the game The late weekend system + the early week shortwave create some confluence for the following one. Best case is some sort of SWFE which will benefit northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Maybe we can at least get the 84 corridor back in the game Cmc also There will be wintry times coming up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 I'd take those OP GFS and CMC runs through the end of the mid-range. Couple of wintry threats there. Ensembles say these likely end up weak, dampened waves or cutters. Let's see if the EC shows any movement in the same direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Just now, eduggs said: I'd take those OP GFS and CMC runs through the end of the mid-range. Couple of wintry threats there. Ensembles say these likely end up weak, dampened waves or cutters. Let's see if the EC shows any movement in the same direction. I think our best bet for snow is through SWFEs. You need the shortwaves to stay weak though. Even in bad patterns it can still find a way to snow and we're approaching our most favorable climo period for snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 2 hours ago, eduggs said: I don't remember any winters like this. Back then there were low snow years and warm periods, but the temperature still went below freezing regularly. This winter is not comparable in that regard. Where did you spend those winters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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