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January 2023


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Thunderstorms affected Philadelphia, Newark, and JFK Airport this evening. Additional rain is likely tonight into tomorrow. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall is likely. Temperatures will be well above seasonal norms.

Following the storm, a seasonably cool air mass will overspread the region for the close of the week. An offshore storm could spread clouds into the region Sunday into Monday. Parts of eastern Long Island and eastern New England, including Boston, could see a period of snow. Farther west, the measurable snow drought will likely continue in Philadelphia and New York City.

Milder weather will then return and persist through much of next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter before fading to neutral conditions.

The SOI was -0.80 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.609 today.

On January 10 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.745 (RMM). The January 9-adjusted amplitude was 0.914 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.6° (6.9° above normal).

 

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30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


We see you how you have been telling us about this good pattern since November. Maybe it will actually happen come February? Or are you thinking March?

Late month and shut up

All the ensembles are showing it.  Have fun now because we know you will dissappear soon.

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26 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Dude are you also trolling ? Brooklyn has been posting maps of the ensembles all the time.

Maybe it's best not to even post on here sometimes and post in the SNE subforum. 

What works for New England doesn't necessarily work for us.   

I respect Brooklyn but I'm not excited looking at the ensembles. 

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Dude are you also trolling ? Brooklyn has been posting maps of the ensembles all the time.

Maybe it's best not to even post on here sometimes and post in the SNE subforum. 

The Jan thread over there is a comical trainwreck...reality is setting in, it's not happening.  MJO skipped right over 8 and 1....so we have a small window...maybe

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6 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

You may be absolutely correct and you’re undoubtedly extremely knowledgeable. I actually really enjoy your posts despite your reputation for being a downer. 

With that said, I do find it kind of odd that on a science forum we have posters telling the professionals here that they’re wrong (or in SnoSki’s case actually calling one “naive?”).  It is also, undoubtedly, much easier to keep calling for essentially a continuation of “warm and shitty” during a warm and shitty winter. 

I think what becomes irksome (at least IMHO) is how you guys have a tendency to imply what you’re saying is verbatim fact and not just an interpretation or opinion. Even if you end up right, I’m still going to lend more weight to what the professional meteorologists that post here have to offer on the subject. 

Of course it doesn’t mean they’re infallible or that you (and others) are wrong, certainly. But the point is we don’t know for certain how things are going to play out. It’s been a very complicated winter to forecast for the multitude of reasons we all know 50x over by now. 

This is America. Expert means nothing to anyone anymore.. er... Maybe they never did? 

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