January 2023

[LibertyBell]

52 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A lot can change on the guidance in that timeframe. It does look to get back to at least a period of seasonably cold weather as the month nears an end.

that could easily be dry and cold, and sunny, that's a lot better than snow changing to rain which I dislike above all else

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Walt, it's a personal view ...but I suspect it ...and the 19th/20th ..et al, trending very recently, may be transitively related to the pattern change.

Noting the deep layer tropospheric circulation mode over much of central and northern Asia is changing from a westerly predominating flow to a north, in as little as 48 hours! 

That sends a robust signal down stream and resets the dial across the Pac... Not sure why the GFS has been resisting, but the 0z GEF mean resumed... I don't believe a progressive/native GFS bias is well suited for where the hemisphere is heading post the 20th... so that's negotiable. But the GGEM and Euro are already pressing a latitude ridge signal into western continent by the end of their runs ... 

The ocean storm in the foreground may be a coincidence, but it actually fits where the hemisphere will be about a week later - fascinating.  

February 1989 type storm but farther east?

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah I kind of want to get the Central Park record out of the way. Finish what 97/98 couldn't. 

The only think I don't want is the overreacting that may come with it (i.e. this is the new norm, we should get used to it, winters like 14/15 are extinct, NY is the new Atlanta, etc etc).

Not new normal, but we're going to see a lot more winters like this-- boom or bust is the new norm, which means fewer average winters and much more nothing or everything winters.

 

[snowman19]

This has been trending west for some time now

Looks like maybe the eastern forks of Long Island get brushed by it

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Looks like maybe the eastern forks of Long Island get brushed by it

Yeah it reminds me of a farther east version of February 1989...a busted forecast of course.

Back in the 80s and 90s we had a lot of blown forecasts when either the storm didn't go as far west as expected (more common) or went farther west (rare) and we got a positive bust.  Sometimes (like in December 1989) they went too far west and we got a rainstorm in the middle of a very cold pattern lol.

 

[Volcanic Winter]

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Looks like maybe the eastern forks of Long Island get brushed by it

If that’s any semblance of accurate the strip of frozen precip is wildly narrow. The cape went from jackpot to rain in a couple runs. 

A 20 mile stripe of frozen is definitely par for this winter’s course .

[weatherpruf]

This has got to be the most boring winter here I can remember since joining this site. Day after day of nothing happening....we are just about mid-Jan. I'm already looking at seed catalogs. Hopefully we won't have yet another cool spring that delays planting: I held off til May 31 last year after losing too many eggplants and peppers to cold temps.

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

If that’s any semblance of accurate the strip of frozen precip is wildly narrow. The cape went from jackpot to rain in a couple runs. 

A 20 mile stripe of frozen is definitely par for this winter’s course .

FWIW I just sent my SIL back to ME this morning; no snow OTG there in Lewiston area. 

[Winterweatherlover]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

IMO the most likely way for Central Park to score a half inch or more in a la Nina setup is something similar to the below. Not saying this one, however an overrunning event. Usually occurs with an RNA and some semblance of blocking (50/50 low for instance). 

A typical la Nina pattern in February WITH BLOCKING has historically produced snowfall in this way.

12Z run went warmer, these setups sometimes work out for decent front end frozen in the interior parts of our region, rarely on the coast unless there is a true artic airmass in place. 

[SnoSki14]

25 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

This has got to be the most boring winter here I can remember since joining this site. Day after day of nothing happening....we are just about mid-Jan. I'm already looking at seed catalogs. Hopefully we won't have yet another cool spring that delays planting: I held off til May 31 last year after losing too many eggplants and peppers to cold temps.

I have a bad feeling it'll be another crappy spring. Worst case is if we see a SSW event in late Feb or early March. 

[EastonSN+]

23 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

12Z run went warmer, these setups sometimes work out for decent front end frozen in the interior parts of our region, rarely on the coast unless there is a true artic airmass in place. 

I was just using that image as an example not specifying a particular storm.

Coastal plain does get accums on the front end of these on occasion. Interior does better but I live in the coastal plain in CT and have received a coating to as much as 8 in similar setups.

I believe our November 2019 storm was this type as well.

[LibertyBell]

44 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

This has got to be the most boring winter here I can remember since joining this site. Day after day of nothing happening....we are just about mid-Jan. I'm already looking at seed catalogs. Hopefully we won't have yet another cool spring that delays planting: I held off til May 31 last year after losing too many eggplants and peppers to cold temps.

I'm thinking/hoping for a 2002 repeat

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I have a bad feeling it'll be another crappy spring. Worst case is if we see a SSW event in late Feb or early March. 

No, the trend has been for warmer and drier less humid springs and summers and I expect that to continue

 

[LibertyBell]

46 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

This has got to be the most boring winter here I can remember since joining this site. Day after day of nothing happening....we are just about mid-Jan. I'm already looking at seed catalogs. Hopefully we won't have yet another cool spring that delays planting: I held off til May 31 last year after losing too many eggplants and peppers to cold temps.

What-- last spring and the one before it were hot and dry (my favorite pattern).

 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No, the trend has been for warmer and drier less humid springs and summers and I expect that to continue

 

Only one year was drier, the rest were wetter than normal. There's no dry trend as of now. 

Water temperatures are well above normal, which should continue with the mild winter and that'll favor more convection this spring/summer. 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Only one year was drier, the rest were wetter than normal. There's no dry trend as of now. 

Water temperatures are well above normal, which should continue with the mild winter and that'll favor more convection this spring/summer. 

That dry weather was spreading east last year.  I think we are going towards more of an 80s type pattern, which is good, because it means less bugs.

Looks like the Antarctic sea ice is also suffering now.

 

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Only one year was drier, the rest were wetter than normal. There's no dry trend as of now. 

Water temperatures are well above normal, which should continue with the mild winter and that'll favor more convection this spring/summer. 

I guess you'll get that convection more inland, we generally don't see that near the coast (very much like coastal Florida.)

 

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That dry weather was spreading east last year.  I think we are going towards more of an 80s type pattern, which is good, because it means less bugs.

Looks like the Antarctic sea ice is also suffering now.

 

Antarctic sea ice extent is running at record low figures right now.
 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Antarctic sea ice extent is running at record low figures right now.
 

no kidding ...?

LOL

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

February 1989 type storm but farther east?

 

Mm... the post was not to intended to aver any actionable course correction - just in case    You have to specific/qualify a post or there's a tendency to interpret.  I figure you know that... 

But, I was offering a suggestion (plausible) to offer some insight as to why-for some tendencies we are seeing in recent guidance evolution. 

[dWave]

Central Park and LGA have yet to get to freezing or below this month. Last time was Dec 27th.

Looks like it'll take just about half the month to happen.

[Typhoon Tip]

I am noticing propensity in the GFS toward a -EPO rendition of pattern modulation...  That version does slow the penetration E across the continent with distribution of cyclone track and cold, during the 20 to 26 time frame.

The EPS cluster is more +PNA ...getting there quicker, with less obvious positive g-hgt over the Alaska sector. 

There is room for either version to manifest.  Just a word of advice as we tick days closer to a possible if not likely, winter recovering mode for mid latitude continent. 

Having said that... the EPS might offer hope for winter enthusiasts, sooner, with more commitment to EC.  But the GFS version could also perform in overrunning "Minnesota squeeze" type mixy results. 

I suspect the operational GFS is too extreme, either way. How much or how little -

[Winterweatherlover]

12Z Euro actually getting real close for Eastern LI

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&rh=2023011212&fh=72

[bluewave]

48 minutes ago, dWave said:

Central Park and LGA have yet to get to freezing or below this month. Last time was Dec 27th.

Looks like it'll take just about half the month to happen.

It’s a first for NYC staying above freezing from 12-28 to 1-12. Also the first time that White Plains hasn’t dropped under 25° for the same stretch. Both locations beat their warmest minimum by 4°.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Lowest Min Temperature Dec 28 to Jan 12	Missing Count
1	2023-01-12	33	1
2	1889-01-12	29	0
3	1937-01-12	27	0
4	2007-01-12	26	0
-	1975-01-12	26	0
5	2006-01-12	25	0
-	1992-01-12	25	0
-	1983-01-12	25	0
-	1949-01-12	25	0
-	1932-01-12	25	0

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Lowest Min Temperature Dec 28 to Jan 12	Missing Count
1	2023-01-12	26	1
2	2021-01-12	22	0
-	2007-01-12	22	0
3	2006-01-12	21	0
-	2003-01-12	21	0
4	2020-01-12	20	0
-	1987-01-12	20	1

[SnoSki14]

58 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I am noticing propensity in the GFS toward a -EPO rendition of pattern modulation...  That version does slow the penetration E across the continent with distribution of cyclone track and cold, during the 20 to 26 time frame.

The EPS cluster is more +PNA ...getting there quicker, with less obvious positive g-hgt over the Alaska sector. 

There is room for either version to manifest.  Just a word of advice as we tick days closer to a possible if not likely, winter recovering mode for mid latitude continent. 

Having said that... the EPS might offer hope for winter enthusiasts, sooner, with more commitment to EC.  But the GFS version could also perform in overrunning "Minnesota squeeze" type mixy results. 

I suspect the operational GFS is too extreme, either way. How much or how little -

Don't you think it's a bit naive to assume any of that will play out given it's 10-14+ days out at the minimum. 

What we've seen thus far this winter is that the -PNA always corrected stronger and the WAR ridging trended stronger as a result. I don't suspect that will change.

Ssts are off the charts too off the New England & Atlantic coast further enhancing that probability 

Also what are the odds we rat the rest of the way and NYC sees 0 snow for the first time in recorded history. 

[Winterweatherlover]

10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Don't you think it's a bit naive to assume any of that will play out given it's 10-14+ days out at the minimum. 

What we've seen thus far this winter is that the -PNA always corrected stronger and the WAR ridging trended stronger as a result. I don't suspect that will change.

Ssts are off the charts too off the New England & Atlantic coast further enhancing that probability 

Also what are the odds we rat the rest of the way and NYC sees 0 snow for the first time in recorded history. 

Hard to see NYC going 0 snow with such a warm and dynamic ocean just to our right. Whether it hooks this weekends storm west or not, eventually one of those storms in the atlantic is going to be a hit.  The ocean influence can destroy winter precip on the coast but can also be a savior, just need one big hit.      

[bluewave]

54 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

What we've seen thus far this winter is that the -PNA always corrected stronger and the WAR ridging trended stronger as a result. I don't suspect that will change.

Yeah, pretty reliable day 11-15 model bias for at least the last 90 days.

https://frontierweather.dtn.com/verification.html

 

[Dark Star]

58 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Hard to see NYC going 0 snow with such a warm and dynamic ocean just to our right. Whether it hooks this weekends storm west or not, eventually one of those storms in the atlantic is going to be a hit.  The ocean influence can destroy winter precip on the coast but can also be a savior, just need one big hit.      

We do need a cooler air mass.  

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Don't you think it's a bit naive to assume any of that will play out given it's 10-14+ days out at the minimum. 

What we've seen thus far this winter is that the -PNA always corrected stronger and the WAR ridging trended stronger as a result. I don't suspect that will change.

Ssts are off the charts too off the New England & Atlantic coast further enhancing that probability 

Also what are the odds we rat the rest of the way and NYC sees 0 snow for the first time in recorded history. 

Pattern looks really good on all the ensembles.  This time looks real .

Get ready 

[CIK62]

Taken literally this averages 41degs.(36/46) or +8.

This would bring us to    42.0[+9.2] by the 29th.       Damn close to an all time record January.