WarrenCtyWx Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 February 2017 and February 2018 had some sunny, 60+ degree days with low humidity. I think the latter even had a day that was 75+. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 30 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Agree. I hate cloudy and mild in the winter. I would much rather have sun if it's going to be mild. Especially with that amazing green comet coming after 75,000 years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 People out on eastern LI need to watch closely the model runs for Sunday. Big changes right now for Cape Cod / SE Massachusetts on the GFS/CMC with the following ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ry23 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 GFS, CMC, and Euro all went way west tonight. Not sure if it makes it to Long Island but pretty darn close. Cape Cod a hit on all 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 I see no reason for optimism for the rest of January, Feb 4-6 may be the period of change either towards or into a colder wintry setup but it may be a one-shot winter that warms up rapidly again after that one good interval. Colder air masses will probably show up in central Canada after about the 20th and edge slowly (too slowly for most) towards the interior northeast US, but a coastal storm track of any note seems unlikely before early February. As you know, a record high was tied recently with 1950 and that January was somewhat similar (although much colder in western interior regions). Another surge of warmth occurred around 25th and 26th of January that winter, then things improved slowly and the best winter synoptics were mid-Feb to mid-Mar. With the weaker stand by cold air this winter, I figure it may come in one brief shot. And with that warm pool to the east, its best chance of being operational may be the climatological peak of winter storm frequency, early to mid February. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Morning thoughts… Showers are likely this morning. A steadier rain could develop late this afternoon or tonight. It will turn much milder. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 50s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 55° Philadelphia: 56° Rain will end tomorrow. A seasonably cool weekend will follow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.3°; 15-Year: 40.2° Newark: 30-Year: 39.8°; 15-Year: 40.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.1°; 15-Year: 42.0° 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Today will become the 309th consecutive day during which Central Park has received no measurable snowfall. That will tie March 15, 1997 - January 17, 1998 for the 5th longest stretch without measurable snowfall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Today will become the 309th consecutive day during which Central Park has received no measurable snowfall. That will tie March 15, 1997 - January 17, 1998 for the 5th longest stretch without measurable snowfall. The record is 332 Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 40degs.(35/45) or +7. Month to date is 45.5[+11.1]. Should be 43.1[+9.3] by the 20th. Reached 42 here yesterday. Today: 40 to 51, T rising to 51 by tomorrow AM, rain, windy later. Snow situation: EURO is 0% till the 22nd. and the GFS is 0% till the 26th. Do these BN heights get here by the end of the month in a meaningful way or not? EURO/GFS Ensembles are similar: 44*(70%RH) here at 6am.{was 40* at midnight}drizzle. 48* at Noon. 50* at 6pm. Thunder/rain-5:25pm-5:50pm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 58 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: The record is 332 Don? Yes. The record for JFK and Central Park is 332 consecutive days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 8 hours ago, Tatamy said: People out on eastern LI need to watch closely the model runs for Sunday. Big changes right now for Cape Cod / SE Massachusetts on the GFS/CMC with the following ULL. 6z Euro is even more west Nice for eastern LI and Cape Cod 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Saw two flashes in the sky this morning from central Union County NJ looking towards the east. Doesn't seem lightning is present. I didn't hear of any electrical stations being sabotaged... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 IMO the most likely way for Central Park to score a half inch or more in a la Nina setup is something similar to the below. Not saying this one, however an overrunning event. Usually occurs with an RNA and some semblance of blocking (50/50 low for instance). A typical la Nina pattern in February WITH BLOCKING has historically produced snowfall in this way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 34 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes. The record for JFK and Central Park is 332 consecutive days. We have a chance at this futility record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: IMO the most likely way for Central Park to score a half inch or more in a la Nina setup is something similar to the below. Not saying this one, however an overrunning event. Usually occurs with an RNA and some semblance of blocking (50/50 low for instance). A typical la Nina pattern in February WITH BLOCKING has historically produced snowfall in this way. a half inch is meaningless, we want the record and I'm a snowfall purist GIVE ME ALL SNOW OR GIVE ME NOTHING 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Saw two flashes in the sky this morning from central Union County NJ looking towards the east. Doesn't seem lightning is present. I didn't hear of any electrical stations being sabotaged... There is very loud construction happening on my block for the last two mornings yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: a half inch is meaningless, we want the record and I'm a snowfall purist GIVE ME ALL SNOW OR GIVE ME NOTHING Yeah I kind of want to get the Central Park record out of the way. Finish what 97/98 couldn't. The only think I don't want is the overreacting that may come with it (i.e. this is the new norm, we should get used to it, winters like 14/15 are extinct, NY is the new Atlanta, etc etc). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 40 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes. The record for JFK and Central Park is 332 consecutive days. Another 23 days should be easy to do. Nothing on the horizon for the next 2 weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Another 23 days should be easy to do. Nothing on the horizon for the next 2 weeks At least 1 more week of this mild airmass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 Kuchera 24 hour snowfall from 06z/12 EC OP cycle as ocean storm backing onto coast possible? 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 37 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: IMO the most likely way for Central Park to score a half inch or more in a la Nina setup is something similar to the below. Not saying this one, however an overrunning event. Usually occurs with an RNA and some semblance of blocking (50/50 low for instance). A typical la Nina pattern in February WITH BLOCKING has historically produced snowfall in this way. There is some chance this 19th/20th feature suppresses S-E in time. The advertised pattern change nearing and especially post the 20th, may be indirectly involved in why. Noticing in both the GGEM and Euro solutions...riding is approaching the western continent and coming on board over the end frames of the 00z run. That may influence the aspects already over the eastern continent. May be evidenced in the NAO telecon, which is slumping through the period, ... moving a scalar mode of ~+1SD toward neutral. While not a phase reversal, I suspect that is responding to the 'crunch' of the wave spacing across N/A ( transitively causing the NAO domain heights to begin to rise 2ndary/ or non-linear wave response if we wanna get into a popsicle headache). But that backs us into a plausibility for less Lakes cutter. The thing is... the EPS and GEPs are not interested - so that puts this into a low confidence, albeit still non-zero chance for success. Sometimes, however, the souped up main operational versions begin to converge on an idea and through rarer, the less refined dispersed solutions then gather in the other direction. I wouldn't bother to mention this post but...we in fact have modeled hemispheric en mass circulation modulation taking place that offers feasibility. So we'll see 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 16 minutes ago, wdrag said: Kuchera 24 hour snowfall from 06z/12 EC OP cycle as ocean storm backing onto coast possible? Walt, it's a personal view ...but I suspect it ...and the 19th/20th ..et al, trending very recently, may be transitively related to the pattern change. Noting the deep layer tropospheric circulation mode over much of central and northern Asia is changing from a westerly predominating flow to a north, in as little as 48 hours! That sends a robust signal down stream and resets the dial across the Pac... Not sure why the GFS has been resisting, but the 0z GEF mean resumed... I don't believe a progressive/native GFS bias is well suited for where the hemisphere is heading post the 20th... so that's negotiable. But the GGEM and Euro are already pressing a latitude ridge signal into western continent by the end of their runs ... The ocean storm in the foreground may be a coincidence, but it actually fits where the hemisphere will be about a week later - fascinating. 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 42 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: IMO the most likely way for Central Park to score a half inch or more in a la Nina setup is something similar to the below. Not saying this one, however an overrunning event. Usually occurs with an RNA and some semblance of blocking (50/50 low for instance). A typical la Nina pattern in February WITH BLOCKING has historically produced snowfall in this way. SWFE events rarely produce for people near the coast here. We need blocking or something to force redevelopment and we all see how the SE Ridge is usually under modeled. Doesn’t do us much good to start a pattern where I-90 Boston to Buffalo starts getting nailed but at least our rain is colder after an hour of slush. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 33 with some light snow, coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 SWFE events rarely produce for people near the coast here. We need blocking or something to force redevelopment and we all see how the SE Ridge is usually under modeled. Doesn’t do us much good to start a pattern where I-90 Boston to Buffalo starts getting nailed but at least our rain is colder after an hour of slush. In a canonical La Niña February (-PNA/RNA, Aleutian ridge, SE ridge) pattern, you would need a west-based -NAO block with a 50/50 low to produce in the metro area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1 hour ago, Dark Star said: Saw two flashes in the sky this morning from central Union County NJ looking towards the east. Doesn't seem lightning is present. I didn't hear of any electrical stations being sabotaged... I’m right in the direction you were looking, I’ll post if I hear / see anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: In a canonical La Niña February (-PNA/RNA, Aleutian ridge, SE ridge) pattern, you would need a west-based -NAO block with a 50/50 low to produce in the metro area You pretty much need that here for any condition, not just Ninas. Btw this year has behaved more like a strong Nino than a Nina. You don't typically see days of flooding rains in southern California during a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: We have a chance at this futility record. It will be tough. We'd have to go through all of January and then through the first five days of February to set the mark. It's not impossible, but a lot can change over a 3-week timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Another 23 days should be easy to do. Nothing on the horizon for the next 2 weeks A lot can change on the guidance in that timeframe. It does look to get back to at least a period of seasonably cold weather as the month nears an end. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 This has been trending west for some time now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now