January 2023

[Volcanic Winter]

59 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It seems you folks are setting the bar rather low. 

Personally ..I'm not worried for the NYC s-forum, not on Jan 10 - not from what I'm looking at.

Will revisit Feb 10... 

Observed pressure and wind patterns in the deep layer troposphere signal an ENSO break-down may be underway. The recent attempt by multi-guidance source on MJO propagation through ( albeit low amplitude) phase 8-1-2 is already in a constructive interference with a firehose Pacific anachronistic NINO flow.  A planetary wave reshuffle toward a NE Pac AB circulation mode is not altogether a terrible fit for a longer resolution, as longitudinal flow tends to precede the materialization of ridging. 

That's the pattern modulation...  where's the goods?  Agreed, but we set the table first.  

Noting some recent GFS cycles did take a primitive stab at an index scaled event ...way out toward 270 - little or no actual deterministic value at the this time.  Give it a week.   

It only takes one event in/when the global pwat budget is what it is.  You could bang out a foot in 6 -9 hours from clipper/NJ model low and still see the sun sun set.   

 

 

I love reading your analyses, Tip. I definitely feel I've learned a lot from you since I began reading the NE subforum recently (especially your thoughts / musings on the MJO). Appreciate coming here offering some re-assurance, tough season for everyone.

[wdrag]

31 minutes ago, romba said:

Nice signal on the GFS, just 9 short days away 

Unfortunately 18z/10 GEFS has NIL NYC and 1" or less remainder NYC subforum, but we have to start somewhere?  

[Winterweatherlover]

Doesn't get more threading the needle than this for most of the subforum. 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2023011018&fh=225&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

[lee59]

 

3 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Truth.  The 70’s and 80’s were a disappointment for those who wanted snow at the coast 

Yes they were

[snowman19]

Unfortunately 18z/10 GEFS has NIL NYC and 1" or less remainder NYC subforum, but we have to start somewhere?  

No way! The GEFS didn’t agree with that asinine op run

[jm1220]

33 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Doesn't get more threading the needle than this for most of the subforum. 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2023011018&fh=225&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

I wish I could move to hr222. Looks like an awesome place.

[495weatherguy]

19 minutes ago, lee59 said:

 

Yes they were

I have said this for many years—I was always told that it’s really difficult for it to snow on Long Island and the coast.  The snow was always north and west.  The Tappan Zee bridge was usually a good divider.  The 2000’s and beyond have been incredible if you want snow.  People do not realize how fortunate they are to have experienced this.  

[lee59]

2 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

I have said this for many years—I was always told that it’s really difficult for it to snow on Long Island and the coast.  The snow was always north and west.  The Tappan Zee bridge was usually a good divider.  The 2000’s and beyond have been incredible if you want snow.  People do not realize how fortunate they are to have experienced this.  

I remember crossing the bridges from Long Island and it would be like another world at times. No snow on Long Island but piles of snow and at least some snow on the ground as you got off the Island. This would happen most often in December.

[495weatherguy]

22 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I remember crossing the bridges from Long Island and it would be like another world at times. No snow on Long Island but piles of snow and at least some snow on the ground as you got off the Island. This would happen most often in December.

You know what this means????

 

We are old!

[Dan76]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

 

Yes they were

Except for 78' just saying.

[CIK62]

Still no indication of Arctic air pouring in here:     Back to Normal or slightly less by the 27th. perhaps if trend continues.

[Winterweatherlover]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

I remember crossing the bridges from Long Island and it would be like another world at times. No snow on Long Island but piles of snow and at least some snow on the ground as you got off the Island. This would happen most often in December.

Same as a kid I remember bare ground in the city and once you hit Westchester there was snow cover and by the tappan zee significant snowcover. Thats why I always thought the rain/snow line sat near the city in most storms. I think now with the new climo the boundary layer rain/snow line seems to have moved NW to Orange/Putnam and points NW.

 

The coast definitely cashed in bigtime early 2010s from all those strong coastals.     

[Winterweatherlover]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

No way! The GEFS didn’t agree with that asinine op run

You don't see this verifying lol?

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023011018&fh=384&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

[Rtd208]

I will remain skeptical on any pattern change until we are within 5-7 days and even then I will remain cautious. The PAC Jet is usually hard to "beat down" so to speak.

[495weatherguy]

34 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Except for 78' just saying.

True.  1 year out of those 2 decades.  

[SnoSki14]

24 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I will remain skeptical on any pattern change until we are within 5-7 days and even then I will remain cautious. The PAC Jet is usually hard to "beat down" so to speak.

Just go mild and 9 out of 10 times you won't lose 

[Rtd208]

28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Just go mild and 9 out of 10 times you won't lose 

Snowman19 does. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

2 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Same as a kid I remember bare ground in the city and once you hit Westchester there was snow cover and by the tappan zee significant snowcover. Thats why I always thought the rain/snow line sat near the city in most storms. I think now with the new climo the boundary layer rain/snow line seems to have moved NW to Orange/Putnam and points NW.

 

The coast definitely cashed in bigtime early 2010s from all those strong coastals.     

I had relatives 'N&W' and growing up in the 80s, especially post '83,  we just took it as a fact of life that if the storm was anything of the coastal variety, I was destined for plain rain or an agonizing changeover on LI, while they would call to say they got a foot plus.  I genuinely started to doubt whether it was possible to get real snow here.

The only type of storm that seemed to drop any real snow was a moderate Alberta clipper, seemingly the storm of choice on LI in the 80s.  By the way, whatever happened to them?  I remember quite a few 4-6" storms (a big deal at the time.)  Can't recall getting much from a clipper in forever.

I'll say this much though - the LI amounts of all those fun storms of the 2000s/2010s were bigger than the vast majority of totals even to the N&W in those 80s storms.  At the time, the 14", 18" they would call about seemed incredible, since my only points of reference were 78 and 83.    That's why the 24, 28, 30" type numbers we saw here were mind-blowing.  That never got old.  Hope it happens again.

 

 

 

[MJO812]

I'm liking that all the models are showing a legit change to colder weather 

[wdrag]

10 hours ago, snowman19 said:

No way! The GEFS didn’t agree with that asinine op run

Probably won't happen, but a snow or ice involved event is possible I84 corridor though for now, would say the 19th is reserved for north of the MA Pike but a precip event seems possible.  Track uncertain. GEPS-CMCE has it for now as I reviewed 00z/11  ensembles. 

All 24 hour positive snow depth change ensembles look slightly better beyond that (21st-26th), but that could be climo and so can't put much weight on anything beyond the 20th.  If everything goes zilch, the ensemble minor 24 hour positive snow depth change I84 corridor should disappear within several days.

[snowman19]

@Bluewave pronounced WAR showing up on the long range ensembles. Wonder if it’s being undermodeled in the long range again?

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Clouds will increase during the afternoon or evening following a variably cloudy morning. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 40s in most areas.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 40°

Newark: 42°

Philadelphia: 45°

Rain is likely tomorrow night into Friday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 39.4°; 15-Year: 40.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 39.9°; 15-Year: 41.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.2°; 15-Year: 42.1°

[North and West]

[mention=564]Bluewave[/mention] pronounced WAR showing up on the long range ensembles. Wonder if it’s being undermodeled in the long range again?

What the heck is WAR? Are we doing sabremetric weather now?


.

[snowman19]

What the heck is WAR? Are we doing sabremetric weather now?


.

West Atlantic Ridge

[donsutherland1]

Central Park's measurable snow drought will reach 308 consecutive days today, which will rank as the 6th longest such streak. In addition, Winter 2022-2023 will become just the 7th winter to go through January 11th without any measurable snowfall.

[snowman19]

Probably won't happen, but a snow or ice involved event is possible I84 corridor though for now, would say the 19th is reserved for north of the MA Pike but a precip event seems possible.  Track uncertain. GEPS-CMCE has it for now as I reviewed 00z/11  ensembles. 
All 24 hour positive snow depth change ensembles look slightly better beyond that (21st-26th), but that could be climo and so can't put much weight on anything beyond the 20th.  If everything goes zilch, the ensemble minor 24 hour positive snow depth change I84 corridor should disappear within several days.

The questions are how fast does the cold build up and move east? The other one is, is it just seasonable or actually arctic? The ensembles have different ideas

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, North and West said:

What the heck is WAR? Are we doing sabremetric weather now?


.

WAR is what "Mother Nature" declared on our snow season. WAR = West Atlantic Ridge

[North and West]

Central Park's measurable snow drought will reach 308 consecutive days today, which will rank as the 6th longest such streak. In addition, Winter 2022-2023 will become just the 7th winter to go through January 11th without any measurable snowfall.

.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging     40degs.(35/46) or +7.

Month to date is     46.4[+11.9].          Should be      43.6[+9.7] by the 19th.

Reached 41 here yesterday.

Today:    39-42,wind e., variable clouds, 40 tomorrow AM.

Waiting for a BN day.?     Last one was Dec. 27th.        Here is the highest % in the next 15 days of <-1 BN..     It is at the end of the run.  1/14,15 have minor chance.     From 1/16-1/23 the chance is flat out 0.      Pacific rains and 250mb jet should let up by 1/20 but no dramatics for us a week later.

 

39*(58%RH) here at 6am.       38* at 7am.      40* at 9pm.       41* at 10am.        42* at 1pm-2pm.      39* at 7pm.       back up to 41* at 9pm.

[kat5hurricane]

19 hours ago, Allsnow said:

2010 was a fun few weeks but 13-14 was the better winter 

I actually liked '14-'15 more. Consistent snowfall Jan-March with prolonged cold and snowcover. Probably the closest thing to a wall to wall winter that I've witnessed in my lifetime here.