LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 51 minutes ago, nycwinter said: i liked the blizzard of 2010 better more wind in that storm then 1996 a real blizzard Jan 2016 was stronger than either and should have been the third Cat 5 blizzard but the NESIS people didn't properly account for the high totals around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 48 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: That was another awesome blizzard. That the models suddenly trended from an offshore solution to a blockbuster storm made it even more memorable. For maximum extent though Jan 1996 PD2 and February 1983 rank at the top for megalopolis blizzards. None of the other snowstorms we've had have delivered the entire megalopolis such high snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Since we're in nostalgia mode, here is more from 1996, including additional maps at the bottom: https://www.northshorewx.com/19960108.html PS, I was in Pine Hill yesterday (very close to the base of Belleayre Mountain) and there is almost no snow left in the Catskills, including at elevation. Snow on the ski trails is a ribbon of slush. I'm hoping to ski at the end of next week, but I might be skiing on grass if no improvement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Continuation of the warm pattern for at least the next few weeks on all the ensembles as the Pacific Jet won’t let up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Poor Lake Placid. Hosting the World University Games next week. Whiteface has 42 of 96 trails open. Their Olympics were a similar weather disaster. You can blame them for this awful weather! Hey Ho…32F in Westchester this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Continuation of the warm pattern for at least the next few weeks on all the ensembles as the Pacific Jet won’t let up. April is going to be cold and rainy, isn’t it?Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 10 minutes ago, North and West said: April is going to be cold and rainy, isn’t it? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk It’s so warm, that the storm track really doesn’t matter. Notice how the Euro has a coastal near the Carolinas in about a week. Very rare to see above freezing temperatures into Canada with this type of storm track in January. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: For maximum extent though Jan 1996 PD2 and February 1983 rank at the top for megalopolis blizzards. None of the other snowstorms we've had have delivered the entire megalopolis such high snowfall totals. Here’s the list. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/rsi/nesis 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 39degs.(34/45) or +6. Reached 50 here yesterday. Today: 43-45, wind w. to nw., p. cloudy-clearing, 32 tomorrow AM. By the 22nd. we look as far away as ever from any cold. GFSens. is similar. Week 3, say 14-22 looks like +10 record pace. 38*(77%RH) here at 6am. 39* at 7am. 40* at 9am. 41* at 10am. 43* at Noon. 46* at 1pm. 44* at 3pm. 42* at 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny and mild. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 40s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 46° Newark: 48° Philadelphia: 48° After a dry weekend, a weak system could bring some rain or wet snow to the region Sunday night into Monday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.7°; 15-Year: 40.7° Newark: 30-Year: 40.2°; 15-Year: 41.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.6°; 15-Year: 42.5° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 The nostalgia for the 96 Blizzard is because it was the first in a series of mega snowstorms that ultimately ended 7 years ago with the largest snowfall ever. It was a great period to be a snow lover in NYC and ultimately ushered in a much warmer winter climate 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 27 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Here’s the list. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/rsi/nesis Don how did Dec 2022 make this list up at 4? It didn't snow in any really populated megalopolis city? Also has anyone wrote to them complaining about the error of the map for Jan 2016, there was a large stripe of 30+ snow that went west to east from Harrisburg to Allentown right to JFK and Oceanside....they have us in 20-30, it should be in the "red zone"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Prospects for a January 13-15 snowfall--never more than a low probability for a big snowfall, but a moderate probability for measurable snowfall in the NYC area for a time--are diminishing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 The 0z CMC and even EC are incredible. Days and days of rain beginning next weekend. Presumably coastal flooding too. Most northeast ski areas would probably have to shut down. Peak winter climo season. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Prospects for a January 13-15 snowfall--never more than a low probability for a big snowfall, but a moderate probability for measurable snowfall in the NYC area for a time--are diminishing. Looks like the chances are more likely it will rain (even inland) rather than go offshore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, eduggs said: The 0z CMC and even EC are incredible. Days and days of rain beginning next weekend. Presumably coastal flooding too. Most northeast ski areas would probably have to shut down. Peak winter climo season. Best skiing is in the Rockies. Most of the skiiers will probably be going there from now on. And California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 16 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: The nostalgia for the 96 Blizzard is because it was the first in a series of mega snowstorms that ultimately ended 7 years ago with the largest snowfall ever. It was a great period to be a snow lover in NYC and ultimately ushered in a much warmer winter climate I guess you could say Jan 2016 was a fitting end to the snowy era. I wanted to get a 30" snowstorm and I got it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, eduggs said: The 0z CMC and even EC are incredible. Days and days of rain beginning next weekend. Presumably coastal flooding too. Most northeast ski areas would probably have to shut down. Peak winter climo season. I'm still going to bed and waking up early to see If the models become favorable lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 hour ago, North and West said: April is going to be cold and rainy, isn’t it? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk No thats going to be May. I just hope we follow the 2002 pattern and transition to warm/hot and dry and less humid when the warm season arrives. Errrr, "warm(er)" season lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: I'm still going to bed and waking up early to see If the models become favorable lol You set your alarm clock by the models don't you lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 20 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: The nostalgia for the 96 Blizzard is because it was the first in a series of mega snowstorms that ultimately ended 7 years ago with the largest snowfall ever. It was a great period to be a snow lover in NYC and ultimately ushered in a much warmer winter climate Wall to wall snow and cold from November to April has been tough to come by in our warming climate. Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1995-1996 3.0 13.3 20.2 19.0 12.0 9.6 77.1 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1995-1996 42.7 31.4 30.4 32.3 36.2 48.9 37.0 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 45.6 39.1 32.3 34.0 40.5 49.9 40.2 2021-2022 44.6 41.7 28.8 34.7 42.4 50.0 40.4 2020-2021 49.4 37.2 32.9 32.2 42.4 50.9 40.8 2019-2020 41.8 36.8 37.3 38.2 44.8 47.1 41.0 2018-2019 43.5 38.1 31.1 34.4 38.7 51.9 39.6 2017-2018 45.4 33.8 30.1 39.1 38.0 45.9 38.7 2016-2017 47.7 36.6 36.2 37.8 37.1 53.4 41.5 2015-2016 49.9 48.4 33.3 35.7 45.5 49.5 43.7 2014-2015 43.9 39.6 28.7 21.6 35.2 49.3 36.4 2013-2014 43.4 37.1 27.7 29.7 35.8 48.8 37.1 2012-2013 42.0 40.5 33.1 32.1 38.3 49.7 39.3 2011-2012 49.8 40.5 36.2 38.1 47.3 52.2 44.0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Just now, bluewave said: Wall to wall snow and cold from November to April has been tough to come by in our warming climate. Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1995-1996 3.0 13.3 20.2 19.0 12.0 9.6 77.1 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1995-1996 42.7 31.4 30.4 32.3 36.2 48.9 37.0 2002-03 too! The two greatest winters I can remember.... That was our last wall to wall winter wasn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 The 0z CMC and even EC are incredible. Days and days of rain beginning next weekend. Presumably coastal flooding too. Most northeast ski areas would probably have to shut down. Peak winter climo season.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: You set your alarm clock by the models don't you lol Just keep my phone near me when I go to sleep . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Cfs shows a nice pattern at the end of this month. Let's see if it's real. Mjo finally going into 8 and 1 also 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm still going to bed and waking up early to see If the models become favorable lol The amplifying and severely negatively tilting trof that's modeled is fun to look at. There's actually a little cold air to our north to work with initially, and this is still 6 days out. So I keep checking too. Problem is all guidance is showing a relatively early phase in the midwest, which quickly scours out the cold throughout the northeast. That means even if a developing coastal slp goes ballistic, there's no available source nearby to tap into. We need to hope for a re-jumbling of the features that shakes out more favorably. 1st goal is to lock in more cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Cfs shows a nice pattern at the end of this month. Let's see if it's real. Mjo finally going into 8 and 1 also . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 2002-03 too! The two greatest winters I can remember.... That was our last wall to wall winter wasn't it? Yeah, 2002-2003 was the last time all 3 winter months averaged colder than normal in the same season for NYC. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html?_page=1&state=NY&stationID=94728&_target2=Next+> Dec…-1.3 Jan….-4.6 Feb….-4.5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 9 minutes ago, North and West said: . Some people downplayed the record warmth to begin the month of November. It was a harbinger of things to come. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Actually hit freezing last night for a short time, first time this month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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