January 2023

[Uniblab]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Might need to take another trip to Iceland to see some snow lol

One thing that is clear-- there is never a guarantee of snow around here, no matter the pattern or signal lol.

I think the closest we can ever come to a guarantee anywhere in the East is that there will always be lake effect snow lol.

 

Not looking to good around there. 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Might need to take another trip to Iceland to see some snow lol

One thing that is clear-- there is never a guarantee of snow around here, no matter the pattern or signal lol.

I think the closest we can ever come to a guarantee anywhere in the East is that there will always be lake effect snow lol.

 

I wanted to go back so bad to experience their coldest Dec in a hundred years, you have no idea. Was almost begging my wife. We missed the onset by a couple weeks. Snow in Reykjavik is actually less common than here and the capital roads were even crazy and covered. We toured the north and while there was plenty of snow and cold, it wasn’t nearly as cold as it can get there even in November. And I think by now you know my almost fetishistic feelings on cold weather lol. 

[Allsnow]

CMC and gfs both with a huge flooding event next weekend 

[Volcanic Winter]

The Capital Region in the southwest recorded -20C readings recently, and the interior southwest was colder than the North. Very unusual for Iceland, at least AFAI understand their climate after four trips there. The North is insanely gorgeous though. 

[winterwx21]

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Monster cutter, no cold air and basically an endless run of the same ol pattern....

What a shock that next weekend's storm is already turning into a warm cutter on the models, lol. It fits with everything that has been happening in this terrible winter. It appears that we're heading towards one of our least snowy winters ever. We're probably going to get to late January without anything more than a dusting of snow here for the winter. Sad, but nothing we can do about it so I'm doing my best to enjoy the warm weather by doing a lot of stuff outdoors. 

[Allsnow]

PAC jet just won’t quit…it’s either congrats msp or ots 

[Snowstorms]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Might need to take another trip to Iceland to see some snow lol

One thing that is clear-- there is never a guarantee of snow around here, no matter the pattern or signal lol.

I think the closest we can ever come to a guarantee anywhere in the East is that there will always be lake effect snow lol.

 

Lake effect is extremely localized. So it's really only a guarantee for maybe 5-10% of people living near the Great Lakes. The other 90-95% of us just get mood flakes and that one 5 minute burst of heavy mood flakes. Take it from me, I live near Lake Ontario and we only get 1-2 decent chances, at best, per winter lol. And that too, no more than 3-4". Plus there's been no lake effect snow now for 10 days cause it's too warm. 

It's been a very shit winter. 

[WX-PA]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

PAC jet just won’t quit…it’s either congrats msp or ots 

Yea if you like snow this winter has been a disaster so far. 2.7 snow in 1972-73 winter is the least snow..We might take a shot at it. Next winter looks like a weak el Nino which might be better news for us. I guess you have to grin and bear it.

[romba]

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Snowman19 is back

Matter of time 

The data he posted though doesn't bode well for our colder MJO phases

[MJO812]

27 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

CMC and gfs both with a huge flooding event next weekend 

Op runs

You know better

Gefs is way different 

[MJO812]

Just now, romba said:

The data he posted though doesn't bode well for our colder MJO phases

He rips it off twitter

[MJO812]

Gfs is now ranked 5th

Jeez

[Volcanic Winter]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Op runs

You know better

Gefs is way different 

Gotta agree for now not to get too hung up on OP swings. NE thread meteorologists staying more optimistic about this for now, verbatim the OP shows a disaster for them as well. 

Nothing else to add but the obvious, let’s just see what happens. 

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Lake effect is extremely localized. So it's really only a guarantee for maybe 5-10% of people living near the Great Lakes. The other 90-95% of us just get mood flakes and that one 5 minute burst of heavy mood flakes. Take it from me, I live near Lake Ontario and we only get 1-2 decent chances, at best, per winter lol. And that too, no more than 3-4". Plus there's been no lake effect snow now for 10 days cause it's too warm. 

It's been a very shit winter. 

I see there's a snow drought going on up there too, outside of a few select lake belt regions.

Syracuse has been in a snow drought for years.

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Yea if you like snow this winter has been a disaster so far. 2.7 snow in 1972-73 winter is the least snow..We might take a shot at it. Next winter looks like a weak el Nino which might be better news for us. I guess you have to grin and bear it.

and that was an el nino, we can get skunked in any enso lol.

1972-73 was bad but  I can only rank the ones I experienced and I'd say 2001-02 was worse.  I wonder how the worst 5 rank on the WSI (Winter Severity Index) and inversely, how the top 5 rank too.

My worst has to be 2001-02 with 1997-98 a strong second.  Nothing else comes close to those two.

Top winters for me are 1995-96, 2002-03, 2010-11, 2009-10, 1993-94, 2014-15, 2013-14, 2017-18, 2003-04

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I wanted to go back so bad to experience their coldest Dec in a hundred years, you have no idea. Was almost begging my wife. We missed the onset by a couple weeks. Snow in Reykjavik is actually less common than here and the capital roads were even crazy and covered. We toured the north and while there was plenty of snow and cold, it wasn’t nearly as cold as it can get there even in November. And I think by now you know my almost fetishistic feelings on cold weather lol. 

Which was their coldest December in 100 years-- was it recently?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

The Capital Region in the southwest recorded -20C readings recently, and the interior southwest was colder than the North. Very unusual for Iceland, at least AFAI understand their climate after four trips there. The North is insanely gorgeous though. 

I love the Northern Lights too, what's the best place to see those there?

 

[MJO812]

33 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Op runs

You know better

Gefs is way different 

Some big snow hits on there

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Uniblab said:

Not looking to good around there. 

 

Maybe this is also part of some cyclic thing, all this convo about record rains and snows out west-- maybe we are finally going to end that multidecade drought out west.  I haven't heard much about forest fires there the last few months.

 

[donsutherland1]

Snowfall Futility Update for New York City:

[Snowstorms]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I see there's a snow drought going on up there too, outside of a few select lake belt regions.

Syracuse has been in a snow drought for years.

There's been a couple good ones in the last 25 years which is literally every winter in your following post, except 09-10, but we had our version of that 2 years prior (07-08). Also, 04-05 was pretty good too. 

I think the bigger story is the rising winter temps. We've warmed over 3F in the last 40 years lol. And in recent years 60% of the snow we've gotten was with marginal temps. A degree higher and it would've been rain. So unless this is some cycle, at the rate we're all going, it may only get worse. 

So yeah it's pretty bad. 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

and that was an el nino, we can get skunked in any enso lol.

1972-73 was bad but  I can only rank the ones I experienced and I'd say 2001-02 was worse.  I wonder how the worst 5 rank on the WSI (Winter Severity Index) and inversely, how the top 5 rank too.

My worst has to be 2001-02 with 1997-98 a strong second.  Nothing else comes close to those two.

Top winters for me are 1995-96, 2002-03, 2010-11, 2009-10, 1993-94, 2014-15, 2013-14, 2017-18, 2003-04

In the Southeast, Winter 1972-73 was among the snowiest. A video from that winter's benchmark storm:

 

[brooklynwx99]

these types of setups have produced for us historically

[MANDA]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

these types of setups have produced for us historically

That ENS M looks pretty textbook.  Remains to be seen if that solution comes close to reality.  Will be interesting to watch future cycles to see if something at least close to this holds.  It sure looks like something with potential to produce but keeping expectations in check.  At this point I'd say worth watching but not more than that. 

[MJO812]

Eps is beautiful 

[hudsonvalley21]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

these types of setups have produced for us historically

We’ll see. There is a flight scheduled today I believe to analyze the pacific activity. So there will some information inputted into the models. Maybe day or two of updates instead of waiting for theses systems to come onto the west coast.

[hudsonvalley21]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 051858
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0200 PM EST THU 05 JANUARY 2023
SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
         VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z JANUARY 2023
         WSPOD NUMBER.....22-036 AMENDMENT

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72
       A. 07/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 05WSE IOP07
       C. 06/1645Z
       D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY:
          25.0N 125.0W, 25.0N 145.0W, 45.0N 145.0W, AND 45.0N 125.0W
       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 06/2030Z TO 07/0230Z

    2. FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
       A. 07/0000Z
       B. NOAA9 06WSC IOP07
       C. 06/1945Z.....(CHANGED)
       D. 30 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY:
          25.0N 140.0W, 25.0N 160.0W, 45.0N 160.0W, AND 45.0N 140.0W
       E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 06/2330Z TO 07/0230Z

    3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT AND
       THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY TWO CONCURRENT ATMOSPHERIC
       RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE
       08/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.
    4. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT AND
       THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY ANOTHER TWO CONCURRENT
       ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC
       FOR THE 09/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.

$$
SEF

NNNN

[CIK62]

All the EURO Ensemble does is keep the % of at least 1" from being 0% because of the period 13th.-15th:

[Volcanic Winter]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I love the Northern Lights too, what's the best place to see those there?

 

Honestly for us in the northeast? Iceland. 5 hour flight from EWR, October to end of March. Best time IMO is late October through November. Long nights and generally not “full” winter there if you’re not especially interested in dealing with harsh snow and windstorms (the latter being what will actually shut the roads down), though Iceland can get severe squalls and whatnot as early as September even. Weather there is generally luck of the draw. 

But they’re always in the game to see an aurora almost nightly, barring cloud cover. On my two week trip end of Oct into November we saw the lights 8 nights total, but we also were rather lucky this trip. Over four trips there, the worst we did was three nights over a ten day trip. Some people go and never see them, though that seems especially unlucky or you’re not trying “correctly.” Sometimes have to stay outside for a few hours to maximize chances without cutting away and “checking back” because that’s often how you miss them. Sometimes they’ll flare up for 10-15 minutes and then disappear for the rest of the night. 
 

Plainly visible right in Reykjavik this evening. 

[MJO812]

22 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

All the EURO Ensemble does is keep the % of at least 1" from being 0% because of the period 13th.-15th:

Post the members