Allsnow Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Msp gets crushed again on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 even if this wasn't a big hit verbatim, this is a really nice setup with lots of cold air if the confluence develops. great run to show the potential here IMO 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: even if this wasn't a big hit verbatim, this is a really nice setup with lots of cold air if the confluence develops. great run to show the potential here IMO Gfs shows something similar. We might be in business here if it holds . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Still struggling to Slam Dunk at least 1": Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Ensembles hinting at more record warmth around the 20th!!! Might be the warmest January on record I highly doubt that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 20 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs shows something similar. We might be in business here if it holds . I'll check back in 5 days and see what happens 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Would love to read Bluewave’s take soon as well. I’m returning home from work early today with 68 on the Tempest and lots of darker cloud cover. No doubt that’s stopping me from the 70 mark right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 hours ago, the_other_guy said: So basically and unprecedented El Nino storm or a gutter ball! I’ll go with the gutter ball at this point. The question is how low will the snowfall total be? The most common ranges 10"-20" seasonal snowfall might be feasible. I suspect the worst case scenario would be one where the City receives less than 1" snowfall (1997-98 came close only to be bailed out by a 5" snowfall in March). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 12 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: Would love to read Bluewave’s take soon as well. I’m returning home from work early today with 68 on the Tempest and lots of darker cloud cover. No doubt that’s stopping me from the 70 mark right now. Very fast Pacific flow on 12z Euro and CMC. So the storms on the runs today get suppressed to our south. Hard to get a phase with systems constantly coming ashore out West acting as kicker lows. But maybe we can put something together in later runs. Just wouldn’t count on anything until it comes under 120 hrs with both the Euro and CMC in agreement. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 hours ago, cleetussnow said: I got 64 at HPN It reached a daily record 65 there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: Very fast Pacific flow on 12z Euro and CMC. So the storms on the runs today get suppressed to our south. Hard to get a phase with systems constantly coming ashore out West acting as kicker lows. But maybe we can put something together in later runs. Just wouldn’t count on anything until it comes under 120 hrs with both the Euro and CMC in agreement. Excellent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 17 minutes ago, bluewave said: Very fast Pacific flow on 12z Euro and CMC. So the storms on the runs today get suppressed to our south. Hard to get a phase with systems constantly coming ashore out West acting as kicker lows. But maybe we can put something together in later runs. Just wouldn’t count on anything until it comes under 120 hrs with both the Euro and CMC in agreement. Only thing I’m counting on is continued learning and hopefully, eventually a surprise or two. Thanks for weighing in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Ever go to musconetcong? No I've never been to Musconetcong. I know it's beautiful though so I'll check it out soon. Today I did some hiking in Readington. I also like to go to Great Swamp, Round Valley Recreation Area and Swartswood State Park. Swartswood State Park up in Sussex County is my favorite hiking area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 36 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I've been saying this since before Christmas. The pattern breakdown is temporary. The 12z GEFS actually reloads the pattern by early next week and it gets progressively warmer towards the third week of January. If true, we're looking at +5-7C or average daytime highs in the upper 40's and lower 50's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 42 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 0z We don't even know what's going to happen mid month with the storm chances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 0z We don't even know what's going to happen mid month with the storm chances. The warmth is coming back 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 51 minutes ago, Allsnow said: This could end up being a wetter version of 01-02 or 11-12-both were snowless outside of a 7-10 day period in mid to late Jan where we got a moderate 3-5 inch storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Another day, still no measurable snow for NYC. There are some hints in the extended range, but no consensus exists and the timeframe is a low-skill one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 12 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The warmth is coming back We might see early growth if that's the case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: We might see early growth if that's the case. Ticks r really bad currently 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 49 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The warmth is coming back I know you're serious, but you have to be enjoying yourself a little bit lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 I am officially ending winter, futility records are our best bet 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 I think I just heard thunder even though nothing on radar. I'm not sure though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, qg_omega said: I am officially ending winter, futility records are our best bet This def increases the odds of a big storm at some point. 5 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 31 minutes ago, qg_omega said: I am officially ending winter, futility records are our best bet Want a cookie ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: I've been saying this since before Christmas. The pattern breakdown is temporary. The 12z GEFS actually reloads the pattern by early next week and it gets progressively warmer towards the third week of January. If true, we're looking at +5-7C or average daytime highs in the upper 40's and lower 50's. We need to be going for all time monthly record if that happens right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 This def increases the odds of a big storm at some point. Probably April 3 or something incredibly inconvenient.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 19 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: We need to be going for all time monthly record if that happens right? 1932 may be tough to beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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