January 2023

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Yeah, my 20 year old daughter just looked outside and said, we really aren't getting any snow this winter? I said probably not. Remember, she has grown up with some real blockbusters. Stuff I never witnessed as a kid. 

my now 13 yrs olds were shocked winter of 19-20-all the previous winters they could remember had multiple snowstorms and great patterns

[Volcanic Winter]

2009-2011 was drool worthy for me. My place in Long Branch while going to school at MU got buried in that Dec storm, and then I spent Boxing Day and the rest of that insane winter in North Brunswick in an apartment with my future wife. We moved south shortly after but still had some really awesome winters in the 2010’s and a few extremely memorable events. The past few years have been wholly dispiriting, though of course with some brighter moments like last Jan. The Feb 1 2021 storm I only experienced at work (18 inches), my house got about 5. 
 

I too grew up in an era of big snow in Central NJ, so perhaps many of us are just spoiled. Never knew the 80’s doldrums. 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

2009-2011 was drool worthy for me. My place in Long Branch while going to school at MU got buried in that Dec storm, and then I spent Boxing Day and the rest of that insane winter in North Brunswick in an apartment with my future wife. We moved south shortly after but still had some really awesome winters in the 2010’s and a few extremely memorable events. The past few years have been wholly dispiriting, though of course with some brighter moments. 
 

I too grew up in an era of big snow in Central NJ, so perhaps many of us are just spoiled. Never knew the 80’s doldrums. 

Ha.  You are lucky.   Dreadful is too kind of a word.   It's not like how it is now where it's warm/wet.   It was cold/dry following up by rain/warm then often back to cold dry.    Other years were just incredible blowtorches from front to end. Models were horrific so there were many busts-a few good busts mixed in...

[North and West]

2009-2011 was drool worthy for me. My place in Long Branch while going to school at MU got buried in that Dec storm, and then I spent Boxing Day and the rest of that insane winter in North Brunswick in an apartment with my future wife. We moved south shortly after but still had some really awesome winters in the 2010’s and a few extremely memorable events. The past few years have been wholly dispiriting, though of course with some brighter moments like last Jan. The Feb 1 2021 storm I only experienced at work (18 inches), my house got about 5. 
 
I too grew up in an era of big snow in Central NJ, so perhaps many of us are just spoiled. Never knew the 80’s doldrums. 

.

[North and West]

Yeah, my 20 year old daughter just looked outside and said, we really aren't getting any snow this winter? I said probably not. Remember, she has grown up with some real blockbusters. Stuff I never witnessed as a kid. 

Imagine having zero snow days in elementary school and zero snow days in high school. Middle school and 1994 and 1996, but yea… recency bias.


.

[Volcanic Winter]

Busting out the Cersei memes, it must’ve been bad. Though I for sure would’ve appreciated the 80’s cold waves. I’m a bit of an arctic… arcto..phile?

[the_other_guy]

It rarely happens… but I love when the fog is so dense in Hastings on Hudson that The ships on the Hudson River have to sound their foghorns.

 

so ancient, but yet so necessary

[brooklynwx99]

huge signal on the EPS for next week

potent shortwave coinciding with a PNA spike and confluence in SE Canada. the HP in SE Canada has trended a good bit stronger as well - more of a banana HP look than yesterday

 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Busting out the Cersei memes, it must’ve been bad. Though I for sure would’ve appreciated the 80’s cold waves. I’m a bit of an arctic… arcto..phile?

Yeah I guess it's better than dry and warm though now that I'm older I don't mind the milder winters if it's not going to snow

[Stormlover74]

 

 

[forkyfork]

this is so bad for our ecosystems 

[Stormlover74]

I expect to see spotted lanternflies tomorrow 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

It rarely happens… but I love when the fog is so dense in Hastings on Hudson that The ships on the Hudson River have to sound their foghorns.

 

so ancient, but yet so necessary

Ahhhhh that’s what I have been hearing on the uws. My campus is only a block from the Hudson. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this is so bad for our ecosystems 

Exactly from 7 to 70. Early bulbs like daffodils and crocuses will be popping up by the end of the week 

[Brian5671]

34 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Busting out the Cersei memes, it must’ve been bad. Though I for sure would’ve appreciated the 80’s cold waves. I’m a bit of an arctic… arcto..phile?

Dec 1980, Dec 1983 and Dec 1989 were arctic hound classics.   Very little snow with them however.  

[EasternLI]

Regarding the Pacific jet. Watch the following loop. It begins with a -EAMT. This wants to retract the Pacific jet. Which it does, as you can see the Aleutians low retrograding closer to Russia. The problem is, there's a massive +EAMT event rapidly approaching right after that. So the Pacific jet is re-extended, wasting no time. I believe this is what is driving matters out there that we're seeing on ensembles lately. 

This seems to be driven by the re-emerging Urals block that's been gaining traction on ensembles recently. As those have been linked to Siberian high pressure episodes. A Urals block could lead towards a strat PV split, if that continues trending with the state of affairs being set in motion in the Pacific already. That's in addition to what I mentioned with the jet. 

Just pointing out some important features when they present themselves as good enough examples on current guidance. To be clear, there is no SSW modeled currently on any guidance. There is only some warming being modeled with some distortion currently. That is, however, highly dependent upon how the 500mb plays out. So I will continue watching these matters including the Pacific. With that Urals blocking possibility being a relatively new development also now.

[Uniblab]

35 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Exactly from 7 to 70. Early bulbs like daffodils and crocuses will be popping up by the end of the week 

Already are. 

 

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Dec 1980, Dec 1983 and Dec 1989 were arctic hound classics.   Very little snow with them however.  

70s 80s and 90s were in large part trash for snowfall.

[weatherpruf]

58 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I expect to see spotted lanternflies tomorrow 

I just put the garbage out and there were bugs all over the inside of the trash can. Looked like some kind of fruit flies.

[Stormlover74]

Gfs has a storm Monday now but borderline temps 

 

[kat5hurricane]

5 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

This is peak depression climo for me. Warm heavy rain in January. Doesn’t get much more dispiriting. 

Cold heavy rain is nightmare fuel for weenies. If it's going to rain, might as well be warm.

[JustinRP37]

Everyone can blame me this year buying a new snowblower AND new skis. That is the perfecta. Of course I will take credit should it turn around ;). 

[donsutherland1]

With respect to fantasy range (> 240 hours out) storminess suggested by some ensemble members, below are the 500 mb clusters. The first set (23 members) would favor a storm that moves off the coast too far to the south and east to pose much of a winter weather threat for the northern Middle Atlantic Region (confirmed by the 1000 mb cluster). The second set (16 members) might hold the most promise. In short, it is premature to have a great deal of confidence in what looks like a potential snowstorm on some of the ensemble members through the mists of fantasy range. For a fresh reminder of the importance of waiting for more data--particularly in the higher skill range of the guidance--the operational ECMWF had a significant to major snowstorm at the end of its 1/3 0z run. 12 hours later, the 1/3 12z cycle had no such event.

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Exactly from 7 to 70. Early bulbs like daffodils and crocuses will be popping up by the end of the week 

I have garlic greening up today.

@JustinRP37Catskills foothills? I hope you weren't thinking Patterson. That's solidly in the southern Taconics.

Someone mentioned spotted lanternflies coming out. We should hope so, they'll freeze and die before being able to breed and lay eggs again. 

[JustinRP37]

Just now, gravitylover said:

I have garlic greening up today.

@JustinRP37Catskills foothills? I hope you weren't thinking Patterson. That's solidly in the southern Taconics.

Southern Taconics then haha. Too many to think about. Drove up to the Catskills today then back to Poughkeepsie. Last day off for my son before school tomorrow. He had his heart set on skiing this break... but alas can't count on Christmas skiing anymore.  

[EastonSN+]

Snow map so I know but just for fun, imagine if parts of North Carolina and DC area pull ahead of us in snowfall......

[CIK62]

BRUTAL FACTS:

1. GFS Ens. can not show even  1 high % BN day, in the next 15

2. The best chance for a Low <32 is Jan. 12---then  a retreat into Canada for the 32's.

3. JB thinks he may be wrong about the cold returning.

A  scary thought:    Back in the 82-83 season I coined the phrase for myself  "The Ten Day Winter".     It did snow in December---but the Christmas Holiday Season was in the 60's, and I watched the tourists holding their winter coats in their arms while they waited for the Statue of Liberty Ferry in Battery Park---which can generate nice wind chill values usually.      Then for about a week in February it went BN and we squeezed in a 22" snowstorm---which was quickly gone.      The Scary Thought is:   What if we already have had the 10 Day Winter w/o the snow?

In other words:  

 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Snow map so I know but just for fun, imagine if parts of North Carolina and DC area pull ahead of us in snowfall......

Gfs has the big storm that the eps is showing 

[Volcanic Winter]

Hey, this is better than not having anything at all. Let’s see how things evolve.

[donsutherland1]

Exceptionally warm air began pushing into the region today. Parts of the Middle Atlantic region saw record warmth today. Records included:

Baltimore: 69° (old record: 68°, 2000)
Sterling, VA: 69° (old record: 68°, 2000)
Washington, DC: 69° (old record: 68°, 2000 and 2004)
Wilmington, DE: 64° (tied record set in 2000)
Wilmington, NC: 77° (tied record set in 2000 and tied in 2020)

Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy and very warm. The temperature will likely soar into the 60s as far north as southern New England. Some parts of the Middle Atlantic region could see the thermometer reach or exceed 70°.

Overall, readings will average 10°-15° above normal during the first week of the month. The second week of January could see some cooling from the first week's exceptional warmth, but a cold outcome is unlikely.

2022 became the 14th year during which New York City received no measurable snowfall through December 31st. During the 13 prior years, mean seasonal snowfall was 16.0" (median seasonal snowfall: 16.3"). Just 8% of those winters rallied to see 30" or more seasonal snowfall. 31% of those winters wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. Just under half (46%) had 20" or more seasonal snowfall. The lowest seasonal snowfall for those cases of 2.8" was recorded in 1972-1973. The highest seasonal snowfall for those cases was 32.8", which occurred during 2015-2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter before fading to neutral conditions.

The SOI was +19.23 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.318 today.