LibertyBell Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 11 hours ago, bluewave said: There is no way to know what the weather is going to be beyond the effective 10 to sometimes 15 day model limit. All we know is that the models have been pushing back the good pattern further out into time since late November. Just look at the model discussions at the beginning of the December thread. We can remember some of the longer range runs showing a possible snowstorm that turned out to be a record cutter right before Christmas. While the models missed the magnitude of cold behind the cutter, it only lasted 3 days. Then the current warm up beat expectations. At least the models were in good agreement longer range on the extreme block north of Alaska which drove that cold. Fast Pacific flow patterns can be tricky for snow even if we can sneak in a few closer to average days in an otherwise mild pattern. We usually have the issue of primary lows running to the Great Lakes. Then the secondary low can get suppressed to our south. Plus models may keep showing snow chances day 6-10 that can’t make it to under 5 days. I wouldn't even look at anything beyond 10 days....and we have to use the dreaded analogs if we want to get into any discussions of what might happen beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Anthony love your passion you are one of the many reasons I keep coming back. Winters in Brooklyn I miss them. Even though I am in New Jersey now, I still love serving the great city in the world. Our jobs are both different, you fight crime. I supply electricity.both dangerous yet rewarding. Keep the fight my brother your doing great things!!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Look at the temps, marginal at best. No cold air around. We would need a dynamic system to get it done in the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Look at the temps, marginal at best. No cold air around. We would need a dynamic system to get it done in the metro That's based off the ukie and there is cold air on the model. This is a threat on all the models. Finally something to track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 9 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I wouldn't even look at anything beyond 10 days....and we have to use the dreaded analogs if we want to get into any discussions of what might happen beyond that. Yeah, 8-10 days is the effective limit before the model skill quickly drops off. But sometimes there are aspects of the day 10-15 teleconnection forecasts that the models are able to pick up on. The record block north of Alaska showing up day 10 and beyond was a big model win. But the models didn’t catch on to the block linking up with the SE Ridge until under 8 days. So little details which determine the actual storm tracks take longer to resolve. The record Western Atlantic warm pool and the La Niña cause the models to underestimate the strength of the SE Ridge beyond 7 days. https://frontierweather.dtn.com/verification.html 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly to mostly sunny and mild. High temperatures will reach the lower 50s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 55° Philadelphia: 56° Temperatures will be above to much above average into at least the middle of next week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 40.6°; 15-Year: 41.5° Newark: 30-Year: 41.1°; 15-Year: 42.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 42.4°; 15-Year: 43.4° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 December ended at 38.5[-0.6] but +2.6 versus the 30 Year Normal of the 60's. The first 8 days of January are averaging 46degs.(42/50) or +13. Critical THKs conditions will be met for a while on Saturday AM for some snow. But really nothing spectacular during first half of January, based on the Ensemble: Reached 56 here yesterday. Today: 53-56, wind w., p. sunny, 47 tomorrow AM. 51*(94%RH) here at 6am. 50* at 8am. 53* at 11am. (Crowd beginning to gather for Polar Bear Dip) 54* at 1pm. 56* at 3pm. Reached 58* at 4pm. 52* at 6pm. 50* at 10am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Anthony love your passion you are one of the many reasons I keep coming back. Winters in Brooklyn I miss them. Even though I am in New Jersey now, I still love serving the great city in the world. Our jobs are both different, you fight crime. I supply electricity.both dangerous yet rewarding. Keep the fight my brother your doing great things!!!What crime are you fighting? The lies the models tell all of us?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 50F as of 9AM. Topped out at 52 yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 13 hours ago, sussexcountyobs said: Exactly. Posts like this make me laugh! From mid November till TODAY, we've had 9.5" of snow. Believe it or not. There are still small piles of snow from shoveling and the plows. 9.5" inches in basically just December, is not a bad start. Ewr nyc lga JFK phl all have a trace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 LGA has 0.4 for snowfall https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202212121321-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 GFS with a snow threat 1/6 CMC with a snow threat 1/9 As I said two days ago the pattern doesn't look that horrendous for January after the middle of this week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: GFS with a snow threat 1/6 CMC with a snow threat 1/9 As I said two days ago the pattern doesn't look that horrendous for January after the middle of this week. Rain on the 6th 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Rain on the 6th Your both right. It's rain to snow. IF happens would likely be snow for at least part of the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Ewr nyc lga JFK phl all have a trace That’s a shame. Signed, your northern neighbor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Rain on the 6th Precip type doesn't really matter this far out but it's rain to snow verbatim for the city. Also as another poster said would be snow for some of subforum at least, but it's not far off from snow to the coast. I don't want to overanalyze though because the gfs is the only model that even has a storm on 1/6 but my point is we are seeing chances within 10 days and not just non stop torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 23 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: That’s a shame. Signed, your northern neighbor The snowfall so far has been all elevation and lake effect dependent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Almost feel lucky to be sitting at 1.5 inches on the CT coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 So LGA is the only NYC airport with accumulating snow of 0.4 Goes with the recent trend of east is best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Of all the ratters I have experienced, this one has been the most frustrating by far (obviously 3 more months to go). Other than 89/90, I do not remember having this little luck without it being a total no chance look like the others. December had one that was a bit too warm and only half the forum scored. One was too amped, northern stream and nw of us. One was too weak and SE of us. If the 2nd storm was somewhat weaker it could have allowed the 3rd wave to amplify. Sometimes it works out and we hit on all three, sometimes one. I would still take that December look again in a heartbeat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 42 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: GFS with a snow threat 1/6 CMC with a snow threat 1/9 As I said two days ago the pattern doesn't look that horrendous for January after the middle of this week. Agree We will snow soon 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 35 minutes ago, bluewave said: The snowfall so far has been all elevation and lake effect dependent. I expect similar outcome this month with all the pac air 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I expect similar outcome this month with all the pac air All month ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: All month ? Yup. Then rna for February and it’s over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Yup. Then rna for February and it’s over What’s RNA? I can’t keep up with you kids and the new-fangled acronyms.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 January cases following past years with no measurable snowfall at Central Park through December 31st. A median line is included, because winter 2015-16 skews the mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 20 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yup. Then rna for February and it’s over Bold canceling winter on January 1 . We shall see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 6 minutes ago, North and West said: What’s RNA? I can’t keep up with you kids and the new-fangled acronyms. . Negative PNA If we have blocking we can snow with an RNA. Without blocking it gets really warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Euro doesn't have anything for us on friday. It just brushes southern NJ with a little rain. CMC has pretty much nothing too. For people hoping 12z GFS is right, the problem is we're coming off warm weather and it's a rain changing to snow situation. Rain changing to snow situations don't usually work out for areas near the coast unless it's a strong system. This is a weak system, so I'd be very skeptical of any model run that shows NYC getting an inch or two of snow. This event is a real longshot. Probably nothing, but if we do get something you'd probably have to go well northwest to see accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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