January 2023

[Rjay]

35 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Warmup doesn't look like a big deal anymore 

 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Huh? We are going to be ridiculously above avg with a trace of snowfall for knyc so far this season lol 

It's hard accepting winter's demise

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

 

Looks like a snow pattern for Brooklyn NY 

[Rjay]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

It's hard accepting winter's demise

Winter isn't over by any means but the next couple of weeks will likely be well above average. 

[NJwx85]

37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Warmup doesn't look like a big deal anymore 

How are upper 50's/ Low 60's in January not a big deal?

It's the equivalent of temps being 20-30 degrees below normal in early July.

[Allsnow]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

It's hard accepting winter's demise

Some can’t deal, the minute you accept that it’s out of your control and it’s going to do what it wants to do it gets better. 
 

We do summer very well around here now so their is always that 

[NJwx85]

Just now, Rjay said:

Winter isn't over by any means but the next couple of weeks will likely be well above average. 

If you toss most of January its going to be a very short Winter at the coast, even if February over performs.

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Winter isn't over by any means but the next couple of weeks will likely be well above average. 

History has shown this is the beginnings of the blueprint to a bad bad winter. Will it be a 5-10 inch winter or 2019-2020 is still up for debate 

[NJwx85]

For anyone grasping at straws, the 12z GFS has another PV intrusion around mid January but it's in completion contradiction with the GEFS which have a huge torch.

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

History has shown this is the beginnings of the blueprint to a bad bad winter. Will it be a 5-10 inch winter or 2019-2020 is still up for debate 

You know the writing is on the wall for strong -NAO blocking to show up in April right?

It's going to be a way above normal Winter and a cold and nasty Spring.

[jm1220]

22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

You know the writing is on the wall for strong -NAO blocking to show up in April right?

It's going to be a way above normal Winter and a cold and nasty Spring.

I have no idea if winter will be a complete fail or lousy (I’m personally getting more pessimistic since I have a coating to show for a La Nina December which we want to at least be decent if we want a snowy Nina winter), but we’re due for payback for our stretch of big winters since 2000. No question about that. 

[gravitylover]

I guess I kinda have to be ok with my 2"  (for a while anyway) 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's hard accepting winter's demise

It’s only a matter of time before NYC goes T for a winter. You can’t just keep getting warmer and deny that. Unless your JB.

[bluewave]

Very mild pattern for early January as the unusually strong zonal Pacific Jet dominates.
 

 

[nycwinter]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

North America is going to be flooded with mild Pacific air for a while when you see the Pacific Jet go on steroids like this. 
 

 

good for them they need the rain..

[nycwinter]

2 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

You know the writing is on the wall for strong -NAO blocking to show up in April right?

It's going to be a way above normal Winter and a cold and nasty Spring.

i prefer cold springs who wants 90's in april?

[North and West]

You know the writing is on the wall for strong -NAO blocking to show up in April right?
It's going to be a way above normal Winter and a cold and nasty Spring.

going to happen. Warm winter and miserable, cold, muddy April.


.

[WestBabylonWeather]

I have high hopes for a cold second half of January 

but yea, watch it be warm the rest of winter and then extreme record breaking blocking in the spring lol 

[MANDA]

55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

North America is going to be flooded with mild Pacific air for a while when you see the Pacific Jet go on steroids like this. 
 

 

Yep, and it is not going to buckle easily.  Going to be a while.  Terrible pattern, no way to sugar coat it.

[wdrag]

NWS Blend of Models snowfall by Jan 7.  Looks a little optimistic for snowfall, especially LI, possibly skewed by one or two operational cycles.  Will just let it sit as is and maybe we get what seems to be an outlier??? 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Almost looks like a hybrid El Niño/La Niña pattern. That strong Aleutian Low is right out of of the January El Niño playbook. The SE Ridge is classic La Niña. So we get a compromise Pacific Jet location north of STJ and south of the typical La Niña Jet. Plenty of precipitation for places like California and a parade of mild storms across the US. We are probably looking at top 10 or even top 5 warmth for January 1-15. The one bright spot will be reduced heating demand against the record high energy price backdrop. 

 

 

Brutal. 19-20 repeat. Winter is over 

[Northof78]

Starting Jan 5-8 the pattern looks to turn near average/slightly below average temperature wise and quite stormy...should be a pretty good snow pattern after the 1st week of January

[Volcanic Winter]

4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Some can’t deal, the minute you accept that it’s out of your control and it’s going to do what it wants to do it gets better. 
 

We do summer very well around here now so their is always that 

I totally admit it’s extremely upsetting to me. It’s very hard to accept what we’re staring down for a couple weeks .

[wdrag]

fwiw:  This topic started 12/24... in part because I was cued by what I was seeing the 22nd-23rd in the GFS op.  

From 12z/22-18z/29 (4 GFS cycles/day), have seen some sort of broad area positive snow depth change in 15 of the 29 cycles by Jan 7, mainly nw-ne suburbs.   Uncertainty for sure, but a sign that the model is sitting on the fence regarding cold enough for snow-ice in the northwest-northeast suburbs around Jan 6-7.  

Yes, it could be misleading to think it might snow around Fri-Sat Jan 6-7 in the suburbs, but the firehose of disturbances crossing the USA near 35N may provide snow-ice opportunities 6th onward, in part because the 12z/29 50+ member NAEFS (GEFS/GEPS) has the 200mb jet near or south of 35N Jan 6 (00z/7) onward.  If that happens, I would think some cold air will bleed south to near the jet axis. 12z/29 example attached for the BL temp and its model variability at the stated time near 00z/7.  Could this be too cold? From a GFS op standpoint,  this has been an option since 12/22 12z cycle.   Polar Wx probs for >1" of snow are still very low via the GEFS so I need to keep this toned down to the bleak projection of many in the forums.  

In the meantime, I'll take a small starter wintry event here in far nw NJ around Jan 6-7 and be happy. 

[lee59]

Looks like a mild week coming up and then more normal. Turning  cold around mid month.

[gravitylover]

@wdrag I was thinking similarly, if the jet can stay south around 35N we have much better chances. I wasn't here in Jan 93 when it set up like this out west so don't remember the result here but I do remember the result in 94 and it was mostly positive and that was also a west to east firehose. 

[MJO812]

Beautiful GFS run

Same people canceling winter early over and over again. 

[hudsonvalley21]

41 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Beautiful GFS run

Same people canceling winter early over and over again. 

What will the next GFS run show?

 

[JustinRP37]

I do not put much faith in any model over a week out. No model had this near historic heat coming just a few weeks ago, so middle of January flip a coin as to whether it will be warm or cold. I tend to think it will flip back to cold for another few weeks, but I do not think this is going to be a great winter. Just looking at the next week it will be hard to even make snow in Vermont, let alone how much the temps will chew at the already predominately man made base. I feel more and more each year for the smaller mountains having to charge astronomical rates just to cover the costs of covering the mountain in man-made snow. Even if we have a warm winter it would be nice to at least have 20 degree nights in the mountains to pump out the snow. 

[Rmine1]

6 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s only a matter of time before NYC goes T for a winter. You can’t just keep getting warmer and deny that. Unless your JB.

I had zeroes across the board for most of the area! I can’t wait for my free dinner.