December 22nd - 23rd Cutter Discussion and Observations

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

People think an ice storm is coming lol. 

The media is back a big deal here but this storm isn't a busy by no means for other parts

We are just going to see heavy rain and winds to possible snow showers and crashing temps.

I doubt there will be Icy roads here in the city

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The media is back a big deal here but this storm isn't a busy by no means for other parts

We are just going to see heavy rain and winds to possible snow showers and crashing temps.

I doubt there will be Icy roads here in the city

The winds have started to calm down now and it's not really raining here much now.  This is probably the lull before the front comes through.

 

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's not done yet and just because you didn't experience anything major doesn't mean it's not significant.

A lot of places are seeing major coastal flooding right now. A lot of places have already had 50+ gusts. 

The temperature drop will be very significant. From mid to upper 50s to single digits with wind-chills in the -10 to -15 range.

I think he wants December 1992 type historic.  This isn't that and was never going to be that extreme.

This isn't historic and has underperformed in MANY parts of the country (I can see them all complaining right now on Twitter lol).....but it is a big event (that word "significant" gets overused).  A big event, probably not the biggest event of the season, but a major storm yes.

In spite of all the snowstorms and storms of the century we have had since. I'll always measure all weather events by what December 1992 did.  From my experience it was every bit as bad as Sandy was.  More extreme in my book because it lasted for 3 days!

 

[bluewave]

Could be the strongest seiche on record for Lake Erie.
 

Intense winds behind the cold front today will produce a
SIGNIFICANT seiche event on Lake Erie which will rival the
highest lake levels ever experienced. Sustained winds to at
least 45 knots with frequent gusts over storm force in the
central and eastern basin will push the lake level well above
flood stage at Buffalo.

Once the winds start ramping up this morning there will be a
very rapid rise in the Lake Erie water level at the eastern end
of the basin. Lake Erie water levels at Buffalo are expected to
reach peak between 9 am today morning and 3 am Saturday
morning, with the potential for lakeshore flooding continuing
through Saturday.

Peak lake levels exceeding 11 feet above low water datum at Buffalo
are almost certain, with even the potential to exceed 12 feet
looking quite likely. If this were to happen it would be near
or even break the previous high lake level at Buffalo set back
on 12/2/1985 of 12.08 feet above of low water datum. For
historical perspective, peak winds for that event reached 66
mph, with this event we are looking at peak gusts at or
exceeding these speeds. Only question is the actual level of the
lake itself. The lake currently is at 2.5 feet above low water
datum at Buffalo which is just under a foot above the long term
monthly mean for December.

The two most recent highest events at Buffalo were 11.12 feet on
11/15/2020 and 10.6 feet on 11/1/2019.

 

 

[FPizz]

High was 56 earlier today.  1.34" of rain.  Highest gust so far 28 mph.  Down to 49 now

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Could be the strongest seiche on record for Lake Erie.
 

Intense winds behind the cold front today will produce a
SIGNIFICANT seiche event on Lake Erie which will rival the
highest lake levels ever experienced. Sustained winds to at
least 45 knots with frequent gusts over storm force in the
central and eastern basin will push the lake level well above
flood stage at Buffalo.

Once the winds start ramping up this morning there will be a
very rapid rise in the Lake Erie water level at the eastern end
of the basin. Lake Erie water levels at Buffalo are expected to
reach peak between 9 am today morning and 3 am Saturday
morning, with the potential for lakeshore flooding continuing
through Saturday.

Peak lake levels exceeding 11 feet above low water datum at Buffalo
are almost certain, with even the potential to exceed 12 feet
looking quite likely. If this were to happen it would be near
or even break the previous high lake level at Buffalo set back
on 12/2/1985 of 12.08 feet above of low water datum. For
historical perspective, peak winds for that event reached 66
mph, with this event we are looking at peak gusts at or
exceeding these speeds. Only question is the actual level of the
lake itself. The lake currently is at 2.5 feet above low water
datum at Buffalo which is just under a foot above the long term
monthly mean for December.

The two most recent highest events at Buffalo were 11.12 feet on
11/15/2020 and 10.6 feet on 11/1/2019.

 

 

Aren't Seiches the lake version of Tsunamis?

For the record my toilet bowl experienced a Seiche in August 2011 when we had that big earthquake here on the east coast (5.8 is big for us!)  Never experienced anything like it and want to again (as long as it doesn't damage anything.)

 

[Allsnow]

1.99 at Knyc 

[Brian5671]

31 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

People think an ice storm is coming lol. 

that's our lovely media hyping everything-a bunch of schools are closed here today LOLZ.

[FPizz]

Gusted to over 30 now.  Wind picked up a lot

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

that's our lovely media hyping everything-a bunch of schools are closed here today LOLZ.

Imagine the hype when we get a 3-6 inch event 

[Rjay]

Well above forecast

 

[snywx]

1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Not much in the wind category here either, though northern Sullivan definitely gusted 40+. Pressure down to 985, the wind threat for you and I probably turns to the front but probably more like gusts 30-40 from here

 

snowpack didn’t get detonated so that’s a plus 

Thankfully most of the excitement stayed well east of here. Very little wind to speak of and now it’s quite a beautiful morning. Partly cloudy skies and 46 degrees 

[wdrag]

Please note CoCoRaHs snowfall map attached as well as NWS local snowfall reports and the CoCoRaHs 24 hour rainfall (not much LI, heavy rain focused Hud Valley). There was some marginal ice from Easton PA yesterday through nw NJ.  Salting was needed and it still was a little icy at 6PM in Wantage where frozen ground kept it slippery despite temps of 33F 

We are not done, back end on its way today. 

Regarding big storms at new-full moon. No idea except with tide cycles more extreme, coastal flooding likely to be larger in a big storm, rather than mid cycle. 

 

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Imagine the hype when we get a 3-6 inch event 

This year that will be a HECS

[allgame830]

Looks the artic front is between Pittsburgh and State College. Current temp in Pittsburgh is 10degrees and State College at 34deg

Now 9 in Pittsburgh and State College at 29…..

[Dan76]

23 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Well above forecast

 

Was up on Atlantic ave at the height of it.

[Dan76]

Now all of this turns into a rock.

[allgame830]

Down to 47 here in Thornwood from a high of 58.

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Well above forecast

 

Wow, over 5 feet?!  Was it timed well with the lunar high tide?

 

[coastalplainsnowman]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow, over 5 feet?!  Was it timed well with the lunar high tide?

 

Not to be overly local here, but heard on radio this morning that Merrick road at the Meadowbrook in Nassau was closed due to flooding.  Doesn't look like there was much rain there overnight, so figuring that was unexpected coastal flooding?

[Dan76]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow, over 5 feet?!  Was it timed well with the lunar high tide?

 

um yes

[gpsnavigator]

One of the stations in western PA is at 3, while the Philly area is recording 46.  Impressive.

[FPizz]

Winter weather advisory just posted 

 

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ

909 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2022

 

DEZ001>003-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ009-010-012-015>019-021-PAZ070-

071-104-106-240315-

/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0020.221223T1409Z-221223T2300Z/

/O.CON.KPHI.WC.Y.0003.221223T2300Z-221224T1500Z/

New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-

Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-

Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland-Delaware-Philadelphia-

Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks-

Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Georgetown,

Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton, Flemington, Somerville,

New Brunswick, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden,

Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Millville, Media,

Philadelphia, Norristown, Lansdale, Morrisville, and Doylestown

909 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2022

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS

EVENING...

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING

TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY...

 

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, a strong cold front

  moving west to east across the area this morning will bring rain

  showers changing to a quick burst of snow with rapidly dropping

  temperatures. Snow accumulation will be limited to a light

  coating up to a half inch but it will fall in a brief period

  leading to a quick drop in visibility and icy conditions. Winds

  gusting as high as 50 mph along and behind the cold front. For

  the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills expected. Wind

  chills as low as 15 below zero.

 

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern Delaware,

  northeast Maryland, central, northern, northwest and southern

  New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

 

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 6 PM EST this

  evening. For the Wind Chill Advisory, from 6 PM this evening

  to 10 AM EST Saturday.

 

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous

  conditions could impact the evening commute. Gusty winds could

  bring down tree branches and result in power outages. The cold

  wind chills could result in hypothermia if precautions are not

  taken.

 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The snow will be brief but icy conditions

  may linger through at least this afternoon.

 

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

 

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a

hat, and gloves.

 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can

be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

 

&&

 

$$

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Dan76 said:

um yes

No I mean to the exact hour, there was some talk that the highest winds might be a few hours before or after the exact time of high tide on the south shore.

 

[Allsnow]

Just now, FPizz said:

Winter weather advisory just posted 

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, a strong cold front moving west to east across the area this morning will bring rain showers changing to a quick burst of snow with rapidly dropping temperatures. Snow accumulation will be limited to a light coating up to a half inch but it will fall in a brief period leading to a quick drop in visibility and icy conditions. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph along and behind the cold front. For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 15 below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central, northern, northwest and southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 6 PM EST this evening. For the Wind Chill Advisory, from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches and result in power outages. The cold wind chills could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The snow will be brief but icy conditions may linger through at least this afternoon.

 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.
 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Not to be overly local here, but heard on radio this morning that Merrick road at the Meadowbrook in Nassau was closed due to flooding.  Doesn't look like there was much rain there overnight, so figuring that was unexpected coastal flooding?

I think so.  There was some hope and talk that winds would switch direction to the SW and that peak winds wouldn't be exactly timed up to high tide but it looks like this storm maximized the coastal flooding potential.

 

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow, over 5 feet?!  Was it timed well with the lunar high tide?

 

New moon. Really couldn't be any better/worse timed.

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Winter weather advisory just posted 

 

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ

909 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2022

 

DEZ001>003-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ009-010-012-015>019-021-PAZ070-

071-104-106-240315-

/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0020.221223T1409Z-221223T2300Z/

/O.CON.KPHI.WC.Y.0003.221223T2300Z-221224T1500Z/

New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-

Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-

Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland-Delaware-Philadelphia-

Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks-

Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Georgetown,

Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton, Flemington, Somerville,

New Brunswick, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden,

Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Millville, Media,

Philadelphia, Norristown, Lansdale, Morrisville, and Doylestown

909 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2022

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS

EVENING...

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING

TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY...

 

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, a strong cold front

  moving west to east across the area this morning will bring rain

  showers changing to a quick burst of snow with rapidly dropping

  temperatures. Snow accumulation will be limited to a light

  coating up to a half inch but it will fall in a brief period

  leading to a quick drop in visibility and icy conditions. Winds

  gusting as high as 50 mph along and behind the cold front. For

  the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills expected. Wind

  chills as low as 15 below zero.

 

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern Delaware,

  northeast Maryland, central, northern, northwest and southern

  New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

 

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 6 PM EST this

  evening. For the Wind Chill Advisory, from 6 PM this evening

  to 10 AM EST Saturday.

 

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous

  conditions could impact the evening commute. Gusty winds could

  bring down tree branches and result in power outages. The cold

  wind chills could result in hypothermia if precautions are not

  taken.

 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The snow will be brief but icy conditions

  may linger through at least this afternoon.

 

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

 

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a

hat, and gloves.

 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can

be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

 

&&

 

$$

 

Wow it's nice they changed the criteria

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

New moon. Really couldn't be any better/worse timed.

Yeah I guess the hope that the winds would switch to SW by the time high tide happened here did not materialize.

 

[Dan76]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I think so.  There was some hope and talk that winds would switch direction to the SW and that peak winds wouldn't be exactly timed up to high tide but it looks like this storm maximized the coastal flooding potential.

 

Meadowbrook was closed south of merrick rd

 

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think so.  There was some hope and talk that winds would switch direction to the SW and that peak winds wouldn't be exactly timed up to high tide but it looks like this storm maximized the coastal flooding potential.