andyhb Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 I mean by definition, it would be extremely rare to have two historic LES events over the course of just over a month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2022 Author Share Posted December 22, 2022 Insane… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 8 hours ago, MJO812 said: Is this unusual for Buffalo ? What lake takes long to freeze over during the winter ? Erie freezes the quickest. There will likely be a quick freeze on the western basin this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2022 Author Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedskater Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 from Google The average depth of Lake Erie is only about 62 feet (210 feet, maximum). Lake Huron measures 206 miles across and 183 miles north to south, with an average depth of 195 feet Lake Michigan is approximately 118 miles wide and 307 miles long. Averaging 279 feet in depth Lake Ontario is similar to Lake Erie in length and breadth. Yet with its greater average depth (approximately 283 feet) Lake Superior with an average depth approaching 500 feet, Superior also is the coldest and deepest (1,332 feet) of the Great Lakes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Hey all, I’m headed up soon. Staying (at least at the moment) at Country Inn near West Senaca. Doing last prep…Seems 12z NAM ticked S a touch . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2022 Author Share Posted December 22, 2022 91" on 3km with it snowing for another 30 hours after this. Once in generation storm coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2022 Author Share Posted December 22, 2022 10 hours ago, MJO812 said: Is this unusual for Buffalo ? What lake takes long to freeze over during the winter ? Our biggest LES events come early in the season before the lake freezes. Our end of the lake takes the longest to freeze as its the deepest. On average it freezes by 3rd week of January, but with the recent warm winters it rarely completely freezes over now. In terms of this season being rare, I don't think we have anything on record like it. We've had an 80" event, a 22" event, and now this one which could be the worst yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 47 minutes ago, Heisy said: Hey all, I’m headed up soon. Staying (at least at the moment) at Country Inn near West Senaca. Doing last prep… Seems 12z NAM ticked S a touch . Please don't neglect the Philly subforum when you post your experience. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2022 Author Share Posted December 22, 2022 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2022 Author Share Posted December 22, 2022 WRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2022 Author Share Posted December 22, 2022 Are there anymore warnings that could be issued? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2022 Author Share Posted December 22, 2022 .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ...A DANGEROUS WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND... True blizzard conditions are rare in Western NY, and it`s unusual to even consider blizzard headlines this far in advance of a storm. However, the magnitude of this storm justifies this consideration. The worst conditions will be downwind of the lakes, particularly Lake Erie where the southwest winds will be the strongest. Expect the combination of lake effect snow and very strong winds to produce Blizzard conditions across the Niagara Frontier starting Friday afternoon and lasting into Saturday night. Confidence is a bit lower, but near blizzard conditions are also possible in Jefferson County, and counties adjacent to the Blizzard Warning. A trough will dig across the Mississippi Valley, becoming negatively tilted with an intense surface low developing across Southern Ontario province on Friday. Surface pressure drops rapidly (about 20 mb in only 12 hours) to around 970mb, with the 00Z GFS/ECMWF intensifying the low to around 963mb. The low will pivot across southern Quebec as it becomes vertically stacked Friday night and Saturday. A strong cold front will move across the region Friday as this low rapidly intensifies. Daybreak Friday, a sharp Arctic front tied to the deepening low over the central Great Lakes will be entering far western NY. The front will quickly make it to eastern Lake Ontario region by early afternoon. Along the front, expect an abrupt change from rain to snow with intensity increased due to frontogenesis along the front. An inch or two of snow could occur then conditions will worsen as temps free fall into the teens by afternoon and single digits west and teens east by nightfall. Expect a rapid freeze of the snow and any slush, leading to icy conditions. Strong gusty winds will also arrive with the front, with cold air advection allowing winds aloft to readily mix to the surface. Expect wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph near Lake Erie, from the Niagara Frontier to Monroe county, to Jefferson County with gusts to 50 mph inland Friday and Friday night. It`s important to note that multiple hazards are addressed in the WSW product, including the strong winds and dangerously cold wind chills. In addition to upgrading the remaining watches to a Winter Storm Warning, also issued a winter weather advisory for the snow and flash freeze in addition to the wind related hazards. Blowing snow will quickly become an issue, due to the strong winds and very dry snow. Moving into Friday night through Saturday morning, this is when the worst conditions in terms of a combined hazard from heavy snow, blowing snow, and localized blizzard conditions will occur. Travel will be very difficult, but more likely impossible where the heaviest snow and strongest winds are occurring concurrently. Winds will be very strong on Friday night in the mixed layer that are even shown to exceed 70 kts at times. This is the period when wind damage will potentially be the highest and power outages could become widespread. This is a real concern especially with the cold temps expected for the holiday weekend. A note about the coverage of snow Friday night into Saturday morning. Given such strong winds, do not anticipate a classic narrower plume of heavy lake enhanced snow for this time frame. Instead a more widespread footprint to the moderate to heavy snow is more likely as the strong winds will spray the heaviest snow around and cause locations of heaviest snow to vary based on where localized convergence occurs which will be hard to tell given such strong winds. That and lower SLRs due to such strong winds (dendrites will be shattered to pieces leaving a more fine snow type) is not good news though as even where snow is not heavy, there will be a more widespread impact with blowing, drifting snow leading to whiteout conditions. Although storm totals will be significantly more, expect amounts in the 6 to 12 inch range across the Niagara Frontier through daybreak Saturday, although this will be more than enough to result in significant issues. A very tight surface pressure gradient will remain in place across our forecast area on the day before Christmas, so while the winds should diminish as bit by way of a weaker LLJ especially later in the day, they will still be strong enough to possibly cause issues and certainly to support continued at least areas of blowing snow. The more efficient (fluffy) snowfall is expected Saturday through Sunday. Winds will continue to gradually diminish through Sunday, with the impacts of blowing snow also diminishing. Because blowing snow impacts will diminish the Blizzard Warning is set to expire Sunday morning, but there still will be lake effect snow and other impacts lasting through Sunday and into Sunday night off Lake Erie There is still some uncertainty in band location, with the NAM (and related high res guidance) a bit more southerly in its wind direction than GFS/RGEM/ECMWF guidance. Favoring the latter guidance due to a more realistic evolution of the surface low. In general expected lake snows off Lake Erie to shift southward on Sunday. Lake snows will continue into Sunday night, with the Lake Erie band shifting back north and weakening late in the night. Storm total snow amounts will be almost entirely from lake effect snow, with 1 to 3 feet of snow expected northeast of Lake Erie and Ontario. Amounts will drop off dramatically outside of the band, although lake snow will carry quite far inland due to the strong winds, with some upslope enhancement across higher terrain. It will be quite cold with Saturdays highs ranging from the single digits over the Srn Tier to the teens and low 20s elsewhere resulting wind chills falling to as low as 10 to 25 degrees below zero. Again, this is why any power outages that last for longer period of time could have bigger impact. Christmas Day will remain cold with highs only in the teens to low 20s and winds to 30 mph generating wind chills of 10 below to just a few degrees abv zero. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Lake effect snow will be ongoing off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Monday morning. Lake band orientation probably not too different than Sunday and Sunday night, with the bulk of the lake snow near and just south of the Buffalo and Watertown areas. Intensity of the lake bands a bit uncertain with increasing shear as surface ridging sliding to our south starts to build in. Environment becoming increasingly less favorable for lake effect Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure to our south slides to the east allowing a warmer return flow to set up. This will bring an end to our lake effect snow, with less frigid conditions expected by mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2022 Author Share Posted December 22, 2022 GFS GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 That Monroe County gradient lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2022 Author Share Posted December 22, 2022 Friday Rain before 8am, then snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow after 10am. Temperature falling to around 11 by 3pm. Wind chill values as low as -15. Very windy, with a southwest wind 13 to 23 mph increasing to 31 to 41 mph. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Low around 13. Wind chill values as low as -10. Very windy, with a southwest wind 39 to 44 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Saturday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. High near 18. Windy, with a southwest wind 32 to 36 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Saturday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Low around 15. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Christmas Day Snow. High near 22. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Sunday Night Snow showers likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Monday A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicarious Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Not looking forward to this storm as someone who does snow plowing. To anyone chasing this event please be prepared with full tanks of fuel, shovel, and a snatch strap or recovery rope 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2022 Author Share Posted December 22, 2022 Will likely be pretty dead in here as everyone migrated to discord, have 65 members in the channel. If any lurkers in here from upstate send me PM for invite. Should be a fun couple of days! My work has already closed, so 4 day weekend to enjoy it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2022 Author Share Posted December 22, 2022 lol 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 So we're basically all in straight down Genesee St now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 No earthquake warning? With all this air and water moving around, the crust will be under stress, would expect a minor earthquake in NY or PA tomorrow or Saturday. Also new moon on 23rd, so a bit of additional tidal force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: No earthquake warning? With all this air and water moving around, the crust will be under stress, would expect a minor earthquake in NY or PA tomorrow or Saturday. Also new moon on 23rd, so a bit of additional tidal force. Earthquake warnings don't exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, Amped said: So we're basically all in straight down Genesee St now? I’d say all of Erie county at this point. The moisture for the first 24 hours makes this basically a lake enhanced event versus pure lake effect snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 70 mph wind gusts, 3-4’ of snow, temps in teens, 24 foot waves. Does it even get any better? I’ll be live streaming along the shore all day tomorrow. Follow my YouTube in my signature. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 Everything is closing until Tuesday except necessities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I’d say all of Erie county at this point. The moisture for the first 24 hours makes this basically a lake enhanced event versus pure lake effect snow. I'm mostly tracking the ice encrusted lake houses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Amped said: I'm mostly tracking the ice encrusted lake houses. They evacuated those. I’ll be there tomorrow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: They evacuated those. I’ll be there tomorrow though. Be safe man and everyone else lurking as I am not even in Buffalo and nerves are shot. Maybe having kids who are sick gives some perspective…I dunno. Feel like there is almost shocking disconnect with some people, like many have zero clue what’s about to happen. They closed schools tomorrow around Cuse burbs and just pray everyone is safe. Happy hunting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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