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Historic Christmas Lake Effect Blizzard

BuffaloWeather
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BuffaloWeather
BuffaloWeather

Cheektowaga last night 

cleetussnow
cleetussnow

Let me get this straight: 4 to 5 feet of snow 70 MPH winds wind chills to -25 That is weather porn that not even The late James from Harwich could dream up.  

BuffaloWeather
BuffaloWeather

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

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I live in NH but just checking out this thread.  Wow.  So sorry for all the people that lost their lives.  It must have been a horrible way to go, slowly freezing in your car or outside.  I know we talk about climate change and events.  I am curious as to the lake water temperatures this fall.  Were they above normal which would lead to heavier lake events?  If so I wonder if the lake water was closer to normal might the snow bands be slightly weaker?  Of course a storm of this magnitude would produce heavy snow no matter what but warmer lake water temperatures in the future may increase the likely hood of heavier lake effect. Snow  

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USCG RS

USCG RS

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

14 people found outside…

 

I wonder how the County Exec is characterizing an EMS Delay, because that is opening the County up to a pretty significant lawsuit. Obviously, we do not have the facts surrounding it, but... I am surprised he would characterize it that way. 

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USCG RS

USCG RS

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12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I think around 6-7". It was melting quick with the rain and warmth before the storm hit. That is solid concrete now.

OT Question - The wife and I are looking to potentially move to the area. Any recommendations? We would likely start in an Apt to get the lay of the land

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USCG RS

USCG RS

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25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Are you moving here for the snow or for work? What's most important to you conveniences, land, close to the lake?

Long Island is getting out of hand regarding expenses and my brother owns a company in the Buffalo area. Plus, I tend to think Buffalo is going to be 1 of the next major up and coming cities in the US. 

Regarding work, I am remote in all I do - thankfully; so all I need is High Speed Internet. Though I think Buffalo needs some help regarding their Emergency Management :poster_oops:

We do not mind driving, however, we do not want to be completely rural either - if that makes sense. 

I would personally prefer a place with a garage. Other than that, we regularly use the gym and we tend to eat either pasture raised or organic foods - so I am not sure if certain areas would be easier to shop (we do order alot online for delivery - so not the worst thing if nothing close). 

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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13 hours ago, USCG RS said:

Long Island is getting out of hand regarding expenses and my brother owns a company in the Buffalo area. Plus, I tend to think Buffalo is going to be 1 of the next major up and coming cities in the US. 

Regarding work, I am remote in all I do - thankfully; so all I need is High Speed Internet. Though I think Buffalo needs some help regarding their Emergency Management :poster_oops:

We do not mind driving, however, we do not want to be completely rural either - if that makes sense. 

I would personally prefer a place with a garage. Other than that, we regularly use the gym and we tend to eat either pasture raised or organic foods - so I am not sure if certain areas would be easier to shop (we do order alot online for delivery - so not the worst thing if nothing close). 

If you're looking for the snowiest city in Erie county with modern conveniences that would 100% be Springville. It's about a 40-45 minute drive from the city of Buffalo. They average around 200" per year. If you're looking for the secondary snowbelt only 25-30 minutes away from the city that would be Colden/Boston Hills area. Where I live in Hamburg is the immediate southtowns where I can walk to everything I need and still average 110-120" per. I can drive to downtown Buffalo in 15 minutes and I can get to the lake in 5 minutes. Which I love in the summer as the sun sets in the west over lake Erie. The sunsets here in the summer are incredible. The farther away you get from the lake the better snow retention as the elevation increases pretty quickly from west to east across the county.  If you don't want a lot of snow you want to move north of Buffalo, some the averages up there are 70-80" per year. The taxes are pretty high in every suburb. The farther you go out from the city the lower the taxes on average. If you want to go for maximum snowfall in Western New York you want to head even further south into ski country. Towns like Perrysburg, Mayville, South Dayton all average 200"+ per year but are about 45 minutes-1 hour away from the city of Buffalo. They get the  best of both worlds with maximum elevation and orographic lift off the hills off of the lake. 

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Buffalo Bumble

Buffalo Bumble

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Picked up about 8” here (Chaumont) last night as the Lake Ontario band strengthened and moved through. A calm, moderate snow with cotton ball flakes is falling now as this five day storm draws to a close. Headed home to Buffalo tonight where I’ll be greeted by 3-4 feet of snow in my driveway and along my sidewalks and probably 5’ at the end of the driveway. Woohoo!  

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Buffalo Bumble

Buffalo Bumble

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19 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

I live in NH but just checking out this thread.  Wow.  So sorry for all the people that lost their lives.  It must have been a horrible way to go, slowly freezing in your car or outside.  I know we talk about climate change and events.  I am curious as to the lake water temperatures this fall.  Were they above normal which would lead to heavier lake events?  If so I wonder if the lake water was closer to normal might the snow bands be slightly weaker?  Of course a storm of this magnitude would produce heavy snow no matter what but warmer lake water temperatures in the future may increase the likely hood of heavier lake effect. Snow  

IMO any increase in lake temps due to AGW has a negligible if not totally de minimis affect on lake effect snow totals. The intensity of lake affect snow depends on so many variables. Wind direction in lower and upper levels, wind speed, available moisture and, yes, air/lake water temp differential. I think if this same event happened and the lake temp was 3 degrees warmer because of AGW, maybe somewhere gets one inch more. Negligible. 

I’m sure there’s a scientific analysis you could run to pin this down but my hunch is the numbers would show little to no effect. 

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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6 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

IMO any increase in lake temps due to AGW has a negligible if not totally de minimis affect on lake effect snow totals. The intensity of lake affect snow depends on so many variables. Wind direction in lower and upper levels, wind speed, available moisture and, yes, air/lake water temp differential. I think if this same event happened and the lake temp was 3 degrees warmer because of AGW, maybe somewhere gets one inch more. Negligible. 

I’m sure there’s a scientific analysis you could run to pin this down but my hunch is the numbers would show little to no effect. 

I agree with this. I think the only hypothesis that could be made based on AGW are the constant thaws after nearly every event. In a "normal" winter lake Erie is frozen by the 2nd/3rd week of January. The last 10 years or so we're seeing the lake effect season last well into February. We saw 2 examples of that already this year. 80" in the November event and then a massive thaw and again with this event we are going to see 10 days of 40+ degrees. This results in Lake Eries lake effect potential lasting far longer than in past years. KBUF is going to have an above average Nov/Dec in terms of temperature, and they already had 100"+ of snow. That statistic is absolutely insane....

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Posted 
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a small risk for flooding during the upcoming weekend, with
any flooding likely to be more of the minor/nuisance variety.

Much warmer weather is on the way, and significant snow melt will
start on Thursday when highs reach into the 40s. Warm weather will
continue through the weekend and into next week with highs in the
lower 50s at most locations. There is high confidence in this,
however snow melt alone rarely causes flooding.

Latest model guidance suggests a couple weak systems will bring
generally light rainfall to the region during the weekend, with
rainfall amounts generally around a half inch. This is likely to
push many of the Buffalo area Creeks and the Black River to action
stage, but it should take around an inch of rain from this system
before flooding becomes a concern. There`s a small risk this will
happen, but in general the flood risk is low but non- zero.

Outside of creek flooding, there could be issues with flooded
basements in urban areas as the extensive snow pack gradually melts
this weekend and into next week. Typically, this would not prompt
a flood warning, but this still could be an impact.

One other thing to note, is that there are some ice jams frozen in
place on some creeks. For example, the gauge at Ebenezer on Cazenovia
Creek is reading erroneously high due to an ice jam, and there`s
likely a freeze up ice jam on Sandy Creek. Ice thickness is marginal
to support ice jams, but these will have to be monitored as the
warmer weather moves in.
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Thinksnow22

Thinksnow22

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I agree with this. I think the only hypothesis that could be made based on AGW are the constant thaws after nearly every event. In a "normal" winter lake Erie is frozen by the 2nd/3rd week of January. The last 10 years or so we're seeing the lake effect season last well into February. We saw 2 examples of that already this year. 80" in the November event and then a massive thaw and again with this event we are going to see 10 days of 40+ degrees. This results in Lake Eries lake effect potential lasting far longer than in past years. KBUF is going to have an above average Nov/Dec in terms of temperature, and they already had 100"+ of snow. That statistic is absolutely insane....

What’s interesting with AGW would be the average snowfall totals have risen at KBUF in the last 30 years, but more so recently. I remember as a kid in the ‘80’s and ‘90’s the average snowfall was 93.2 and has since risen to 95.6” average. I don’t believe this is coincidental as BW has alluded to that we now have a longer lake effect season and the weather pattern has changed so we’re seeing more storms cut to our west leaving the area with more SW wind events than there are NW wind events which is why planes like Rochester and Syracuse are seeing fractions of their annual snowfall as they did when clipper systems were more prevalent 

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