BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Buf NWS calling this a once in a generation type event. Feet of snow, 70+ mph wind gusts, with whiteout conditions. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...A rapid switch from rain to snow with sharply falling temperatures into the teens and single digits will result in a flash freeze on Friday. From Friday afternoon through most of the weekend, very strong winds, heavy lake effect snow and significant blowing and drifting snow will be possible. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph Friday into Friday night. Localized blizzard conditions are possible. * WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties. * WHEN...From Friday morning through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel for the holiday weekend, including Friday, could be very difficult to impossible at times. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility with whiteouts and localized blizzard conditions possible. The most persistent and worst conditions will be where lake effect snow is most widespread, which is still uncertain at this time. Winds this strong could cause tree damage and power outages. Cold wind chills as low as 10 to 20 below zero this weekend could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ...Once in a Generation Winter Storm to Slam the Region Heading into and THROUGH the Christmas Weekend... Old Man Winter will unleash the full fury of winter upon our region during this period...as an extremely amplified longwave pattern will spawn one of the most intense storm systems in decades to impact the Mid West and Great Lakes region. This system will likely end up setting low pressure records once it passes north of the border and will have the potential to generate at LEAST storm force winds over the Lower Great lakes. As if the very real threat for damaging winds of 60-70 mph were not enough...there will also be the risk for a prolonged...paralyzing heavy lake effect snow event. The very strong to damaging winds, blowing and drifting snow with localized blizzard conditions preceded by a rapid flash freeze all coming right before the Christmas holiday weekend resulted in a *long duration* winter storm watch being issued for western NY. A Winter Storm Watch has also now been issued for Jefferson and Lewis county from midday Friday through Monday. While heavy lake effect snows have already occurred this winter season...this will be the first event with multiple impacts from such intense winds. Winter storm watches are already in effect for parts of western New York with the high component wrapped into the same product. An extremely amplified longwave pattern during this period will spawn one of the most intense storm systems in decades to impact the Mid West and Great Lakes region. This system will likely end up setting low pressure records once it passes north of the border and will have the potential to generate storm force winds over the Lower Great lakes. Explosive cyclogenesis will take place over the mid western states into southern Ontario on Friday...as an anomalously strong 150kt H25 jet will pass through the base of a very deep longwave trough. This will support rapid deepening of a corresponding sfc low that will track southern Ontario by late Friday. The `bombing` low will deepen from roughly 990mb in the vcnty of Lake Erie/Lower Michigan late Thursday night...to 982mb over southernmost Ontario Friday morning to about 968mb near the Ontario-Quebec border by Friday evening... easily meeting the definition of bombogenesis (24mb/24hrs). Such deepening is relatively rare in the LOWER Great lakes...but more common across the UPPER Great Lakes and certainly with Nor`easters along the coast. Some of the parameters of this intense storm are climatologically `off the charts`...such as MSLP and strength of both the low level and upper level jets. One could certainly describe this storm system as a once in a generation type of event. Subtle differences remain...but there remains general model agreement in the overall large scale scenario...which adds confidence. The rapidly intensifying low is forecast to pass just to our west on Friday. Winds will ramp up in the cold air advection and during when max pressure rise/fall couplet crosses. This is about as good as it gets in terms of maximizing winds/gusts to the sfc. Several guidance packages are now advertising wind gusts over the IAG Frontier to near 60 mph late in the day as another intense 70kt LLJ enters the region. This is NOT when the strongest winds are expected though. That is yet to come. In regards to pcpn on Friday...the strong winds will open the door for MUCH colder air to pour across our forecast area. This will result in a RAPID change over of the rain to snow with deep frontogenetic forcing leading to a burst of moderately heavy snow that will yield accumulations of several inches expected by late afternoon. Temperatures that will start the day in the low to mid 40s in most areas will PLUMMET into the single digits across the Srn Tier by the end of the day...while readings will range from the teens across the remainder of wrn NY to the lower 30s east of Lake Ontario. This dramatic plunge in temperatures will likely result in a flash freeze of the snow/water/slush. As the extremely deep storm system further deepens in place over the Ontario-Quebec border Friday night...a strong secondary cold front/sfc trough will plow across our forecast area. This will be accompanied by the second 70kt low level jet that...being found in the cold sector...should largely mix to the sfc at times. The threat for high winds at the sfc will be greatest in the typical corridor from Lake Erie and the IAG Frontier to Rochester and then to the Thousand Island region. Increased winds some in these corridors. Power outages will be a concern as will be blowing snow and drifting snow. The widespread synoptic snow during the first half of Friday night should then taper off as the deepest forcing exits and limited drying arrives in the mid levels. Meanwhile...a 230-240 flow of -20c H85 air will promote an area of lake snow to become established Buffalo northward...across IAG and the Northtowns. The snow... whether it be synoptic or lake induced in nature...will be blown around by +50 mph winds so significant blowing and drifting can be anticipated along with near zero visibility and at least localized blizzard conditions. As is typically the case...the very strong southwest flow will also shove a great deal of water up to the Buffalo end of Lk Erie...so lakeshore flooding will be a possibility. More specifics on that in the lakeshore flooding discussion. A very tight sfc pressure gradient will remain in place across our forecast area on the day before Christmas...so while the winds should diminish as bit by way of a weaker LLJ especially later in the day, they will still be strong enough to possibly cause issues and certainly to support continued blowing snow. Models have trended a bit quicker with veering of winds, to more of 240-250 flow so that more of the Buffalo Metro would be impacted by lake snows Saturday into Saturday night with the visibility remaining near zero at times within the band. It will be quite cold with Saturdays highs ranging from the single digits over the Srn Tier to the teens and low 20s elsewhere resulting wind chills falling to as low as 10 to 20 degrees below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 GFS and GEM going nuts, ratios will be higher in this event than the last 2 with the colder temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 Higher res are slightly further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 UK a little further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 Been following weather for 20+ yrs and never seen anything like what's coming this weekend. Blizz of 77/85 are comparables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS and GEM going nuts, ratios will be higher in this event than the last 2 with the colder temps. Is there over 70 inches near Redfield? Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 Anyone from upstate region or chasing this one send me PM for discord invite. We have over 60 members that joined. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Is there over 70 inches near Redfield? Wow 4-5' south of Buffalo and 5-6' off Ontario 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 Kuch ratios are likely a bit too high with the wind speeds that are coming, but models are spitting out almost 4" of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Anyone from upstate region or chasing this one send me PM for discord invite. We have over 60 members that joined. Post pics man I loved the last ones I'm tired of seeing asphalt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Post pics man I loved the last ones I'm tired of seeing asphalt. Will be posting a ton on Twitter and YouTube. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Will be posting a ton on Twitter and YouTube. What a season in your area. Congrats. We're on the sidelines again for this event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, NEOH said: What is a season in your area. Congrats. We're on the sidelines again for this event. Syracuse area? They have been getting screwed by lake effect recently . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Syracuse area? They have been getting screwed by lake effect recently . I'm in the Northeast Ohio snowbelt. It has been a "lake plain" year from Ohio through WNY with the west/southwest wind direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 17 minutes ago, NEOH said: What is a season in your area. Congrats. We're on the sidelines again for this event. Just unreal start to winter. Not even sure if its possible to get a better one. Hopefully you guys can get in on the action soon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 12z high res Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 Just through sat 5 am. This event goes into Monday evening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 Noon runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 UK has over 5" of QPF..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 Lakeshore flood warnings issued ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Significant lakeshore flooding expected. The lake level at Buffalo may exceed 11 feet above low water datum which would be more than 3 feet above flood stage. * WHERE...Niagara, Erie, and Chautauqua counties. * WHEN...From 7 AM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...The rapid rise in water levels will result in SIGNIFICANT lakeshore flooding along the Lake Erie and Upper Niagara River shores. Along the Lake Erie shore, flooding is likely along Route 5 in Hamburg, Buffalo Harbor, Canalside, Buffalo Riverworks, Dunkirk Harbor, Hoover Beach in Hamburg, Old First ward in South Buffalo, and other flood prone locations. Along the Upper Niagara River, flooding is likely to affect Grand Island, Cayuga Island, and beneath the North Grand Island bridge at the Lasalle Expressway ramps. Very high wave action will also result in significant shoreline erosion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Hope you get smoked again. Looks like another event of major headlines in the area but likely getting skunked (or flash frozen) here in SE Monroe County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 Through Sunday morning. It snows until Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 So I think I’m headed up!! I have enough PTO time etc. Timing is bit of an issue. I work tonight until around 12-1, gotta wake up early get some food for the trip. Stock up emergency stuff. Im coming from Philadelphia so about 6 hour trip I imagine. Probably drive through some bad weather in NY state but should make it with plenty of time. Any hotel recommendations or locations in general at this stage? . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2022 Author Share Posted December 22, 2022 I can't believe I have another forecast like this Friday Rain before 9am, then snow. High near 41. Wind chill values as low as -10. Windy, with a southwest wind 17 to 27 mph increasing to 27 to 37 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. Low around 11. Very windy, with a southwest wind 38 to 41 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 16. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. Low around 14. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Christmas Day Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 18. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Sunday Night Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday Snow showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23. Chance of precipitation is 60%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2022 Author Share Posted December 22, 2022 RGEM goes nuts with over 4" of QPF and still snows for another day after this run ends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2022 Author Share Posted December 22, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Is this unusual for Buffalo ? What lake takes long to freeze over during the winter ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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