January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z global ensembles look really decent between d10-15 w/ abundant AN heights at high latitudes.  That is a big league cold signal.  

[Carvers Gap]

During chess, great players count moves.  I have played against players who can see moves at a ridiculous range - and no, I don't play chess well, but I can play.  Sometimes in weather, folks "count moves."  I do.   In chess, the board is two dimensional and limited in space.  With weather, to echo Boone, people talking like 15-30 day forecast are gospel are making educated guesses.  I may "think" something is going to happen...but modeling is only good at very broad patterns at that range.  They don't see embedded storms and often miss cold shots or warm-ups.  And when people are "right", they often are simply playing a game of chance.  Nina climatology has its biggest cluster of solutions which are warm IMBY for Jan and into Feb.  I made my winter forecast during June by using that.  There is a cold cluster which I didn't use, but certainly is showing up in LR modeling.  I think our best chance for winter weather this seasons will be from Jan10 to the end of the month.  Then, at some point...this is likely going to flip back west at 500 and we do it all again during February.  And that is counting moves....BUT the weather is not bound by the dimensions of a chess board.  It exists in chaos, and does not obey computer algorithms nor the opining of the human mind.  Cosgrove should have an update tonight.  I will be interested to see what he says.  

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yep, Twitter group think is real.  Whatever viewpoint one wants, it is on Twitter.  LOL.  The first 5 days will likely be super warm which makes a warm January highly likely.  But as we found w/ December, warm starts don't tell the entire story.  I do think this side of the Apps is far better situated for cold and even in western NC.   And Boone, I know you know this.  I am not really interested if the month is base warm.  What I look for are winter storm windows.  Cold helps, but we get some leeway during January which we don't have during other months.  To me, I see 2-3 storm windows with increasing chances as each week passes.  We are going to be fighting source regions, but the MJO rotations have generally looked not hostile.   And the MJO is moving so slowly, if it gets into 8...it may take some time to get it out of there.  I have seen winter end during January, and this is not how it usually looks when that occurs.  Right now, it looks like the pattern is going to slowly reload like it did during November.

Yeah, I agree wholeheartedly. The Month will probably end warmer than average but, not outrageously so. That's base Nina. Almost a given . However, if we can get things to align right if that MJO gets into cold ph. and crawls, there's a chance for maybe a somewhat cooler than avg. Month . Tough to do in a Nina as we all know but, it can and has happened. 

  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

...STRATOSPHERIC POLAR VORTEX WATCH IS ISSUED IN FOR THE LAST HALF OF JANUARY

* WHAT...GFS has honked harshly for significant warming at 10 mb for the past few runs. 
At 6z 1/1/23 it showed temperatures warming above 32 degrees over N. Siberia. 



No split was indicated, only a general stretching and weakening of the top of the vortex. 



There are however some indications of a connection between the blocking over 
central Canada at H5 and a higher geopotential heights at 50 mb in the medium range:



* IMPACTS...Plan on hype from the usual suspects on wxtwitter and a potential 
for hazardous model mayhem in the upcoming weeks. 


* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Remember a WATCH is issued when there are hints of a 
significant SPV disruption. The actual event has NOT happened yet and may not 
occur, but there have been enough model runs that I feel confident there is a
higher than normal chance after mid month of significant stratospheric disruptions 
which COULD percolate to the CONUS 2 - 3 weeks after the event. High latitude 
blocking has already occurred this year and is ongoing, so there could be, IMO, a higher than usual 
potential for any SPV disruptions to more easily impact H5 patterns. But again this would not 
be until early to mid Feb, if it even happens. 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

For some reason it wouldn't embed my gifs, so I'll try again here:

warming

elongation and shearing of the SPV

 

 

 

50mb ridging and 500 mb ridging below that

 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z EPS is textbook cold MJO phases.  It is quite chilly at 300+ and continues the look from overnight.  IF the MJO is heading into cold phases quite slowly...modeling should begin to show some cold looks mid month.  The EPS certainly does that.

[*Flash*]

Lots of people cliff-jumping over in SouthernWx this week. I'm guessing things are looking a tad brighter for us in TN/KY as opposed to NC/SE/GA?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

46 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Lots of people cliff-jumping over in Southernwx this week. I'm guessing things are looking a tad brighter for us in TN/KY as opposed to NC/SE/GA?

Let's hope so, lol. For us to get a good hit it usually means they are ridged and warm nosed. IMO things don't look better or worse for us or them.

18z GFS ushers in bowling ball season early:

 

[Carvers Gap]

I think our forum does a good job of separating emotion from wx.  Nina winters are winters of extremes.  We all braced for that once winter started.  I suspect that continues.  The GEFS has a +EPO late in its run which I am sure must be part of the consternation.  The 12z EPS looks more like what MJO progressions are showing.  So, I am riding with it.  There are places along the EC which haven't seen a flake yet.  We all have pretty much had some winter already.  Anyway, this is a snapshot just past 300 hours of the 12z EPS...

[Carvers Gap]

So, it looks like we get a window of decent storminess(systems passing potentially below our latitude, but w/ marginal temps) during the 5th-9th.  We get another warm-up, and then I am hypothesizing that we see a more productive cold shot around the 15th.

[Matthew70]

1 hour ago, *Flash* said:

Lots of people cliff-jumping over in Southernwx this week. I'm guessing things are looking a tad brighter for us in TN/KY as opposed to NC/SE/GA?

Key word there is SouthernWx. 
 

This forum is very chill & informative.  You don’t see the bipolar here. Yes disappointment & ups & downs are normal in following wx.  I have enjoyed these warmer days.  
A question for everyone.  I have some bushes that look dead after that hard freeze & 0 temps we had. Will they come back or could it have killed them?  My neighbor also asked me the same question. Even the hollies took a beating.   

[matt9697]

1 hour ago, Matthew70 said:

Key word there is SouthernWx. 
 

This forum is very chill & informative.  You don’t see the bipolar here. Yes disappointment & ups & downs are normal in following wx.  I have enjoyed these warmer days.  
A question for everyone.  I have some bushes that look dead after that hard freeze & 0 temps we had. Will they come back or could it have killed them?  My neighbor also asked me the same question. Even the hollies took a beating.   

Things like nandina's will lose their leaves, mine looked brown and have started to drop; the english iv is now a very dark purple; the southern magnolia leaves are splotchy, so hopefully we can stay away from the real cold the rest of the year

[Itryatgolf70]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

So, it looks like we get a window of decent storminess(systems passing potentially below our latitude, but w/ marginal temps) during the 5th-9th.  We get another warm-up, and then I am hypothesizing that we see a more productive cold shot around the 15th.

Carver, if the mjo is legit, the models should reflect that type scenario panning out sooner or later. It may not happen, but would like to see another -epo develop 

[Carvers Gap]

During the past couple of days, I have started noticing potential GFS long range warm bias(remember that back in Nov/Dec?) starting to show its presence again.  This is how global operational models are comparing to the GFS right now over time.  Red is the Euro.  Black is the GFS.  Mustard is the UKMET.  Green is the CMC. American modeling is MUCH different than the Euo/EPS right now.  Most MJO modeling now gets into phase 8 which is cold, and takes its time there. 

I know Cosgrove hinted yesterday at strat warming occurring.  When you see a gigantic WAR(western Atlantic ridge for newcomers) connected to the SER during winter, that is likely doing some damage to the SPV.  I think he is correct on this.  Whether it reaches the official definition of SSW, who knows.  What we are looking for is the PV to get jostled.  It tightened up recently which is why NA likely warmed quickly after the previous disturbance.  How quickly does it work down to the surface?  Generally, IF it is going to affect the tropospheric polar vortex (TPV) that will occur about 2-3 weeks once the event begins.  I am going to use the GEFS here. I doubt its surface is right, but it has done well w/ strat warming, and I don't have access to the EPS LR strat stuff.  Notice the tightly wound vortex at 50mb(68k') is at the beginning of the run.   10mb which is usually the first place we notice warming at about 100k'.  Then notice it get perturbed as air warms around it as the run progresses.   I will say the Euro strat stuff(which I do have access to) looks quite similar to the d10 GEFS.  In past years, we have seen cold patterns disrupted by SSWs.  This time, it is disrupting a currently warmer pattern at the surface.  So, I say bring it on.

 

Here is the link to convert millibars to altitude.  

https://www.sensorsone.com/altitude-pressure-units-conversion/

 

 

 

[Itryatgolf70]

21 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

During the past couple of days, I have started noticing potential GFS long range warm bias(remember that back in Nov/Dec?) starting to show its presence again.  This is how global operational models are comparing to the GFS right now over time.  Red is the Euro.  Black is the GFS.  Mustard is the UKMET.  Green is the CMC. American modeling is MUCH different than the Euo/EPS right now.  Most MJO modeling now gets into phase 8 which is cold, and takes its time there. 

I know Cosgrove hinted yesterday at strat warming occurring.  When you see a gigantic WAR(western Atlantic ridge for newcomers) connected to the SER during winter, that is likely doing some damage to the SPV.  I think he is correct on this.  Whether it reaches the official definition of SSW, who knows.  What we are looking for is the PV to get jostled.  It tightened up recently which is why NA likely warmed quickly after the previous disturbance.  How quickly does it work down to the surface?  Generally, IF it is going to affect the tropospheric polar vortex (TPV) that will occur about 2-3 weeks once the event begins.  I am going to use the GEFS here. I doubt its surface is right, but it has done well w/ strat warming, and I don't have access to the EPS LR strat stuff.  Notice the tightly wound vortex at 50mb(68k') is at the beginning of the run.   10mb which is usually the first place we notice warming at about 100k'.  Then notice it get perturbed as air warms around it as the run progresses.   I will say the Euro strat stuff(which I do have access to) looks quite similar to the d10 GEFS.  In past years, we have seen cold patterns disrupted by SSWs.  This time, it is disrupting a currently warmer pattern at the surface.  So, I say bring it on.

 

Here is the link to convert millibars to altitude.  

https://www.sensorsone.com/altitude-pressure-units-conversion/

 

 

 

Carver, I hope we get another opportunity at a cold enough pattern here that supports winter storm opportunity. If the mjo actually gets into the colder phases, the models should respond to that. Hopefully we aren't chasing unicorns all winter lol. It was nice seeing it cold in December, but we are in winter and hate to waste winter on warmer weather.

[Carvers Gap]

In reference to my earlier post above, I would expect to see some signs of high latitude blocking continue to develop in the LR.  So, just take a wrench and throw it in modeling after d7.  It is very likely modeling in the LR is going to be all over the place right now.  That said IF the MJO is correct and the SSW is also somewhat correct, that would mean the cold could POTENTIALLY dump into the East in the 15-25day range which would be phase one.  Just spitballing, but that is how it might work.  Below is the GEFS-EXT(looks very similar to the ECMWF and last Thursdays EMON MJO.

Let's see if modeling adjusts to the MJO above.  I will add that we are definitely dealing w/ source region issues.  That said, Canadian origin cold will work.  It just doesn't stay around as long.  If the warming of the PV verifies, we are then looking at cold moving to lower latitudes in either Asia, NA, or both.

[Carvers Gap]

4 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Carver, I hope we get another opportunity at a cold enough pattern here that supports winter storm opportunity. If the mjo actually gets into the colder phases, the models should respond to that. Hopefully we aren't chasing unicorns all winter lol. It was nice seeing it cold in December, but we are in winter and hate to waste winter on warmer weather.

I actually don't think we have chased unicorns at all up to this point which is a plus!  That can always change.  We usually work winter through about early April.  LOL.  So far though, this is textbook Nina progression for our region.  Cold/seasonal December -> warm Jan -> warmer February but w/ Jan and Feb featuring extreme swings.  Again of note, there is a colder cluster of analogs for year 3 Ninas.  If it continues to follow that path, we should see one or two more maybe severe shot of cold east of the MS.  Think Memphis a couple of years ago.  Honestly, the analog from a couple of years ago is similar off the top of my head.  Early cold and snow.  Then there was a warm-up.  Then the middle and western areas of our forum got hammered w/ a multi day overrunning event.  The thing to look for if severe cold is on the horizon is A LOT of flip flopping by operationals and some by the ensembles.    

And of course it can always stay warm.....the current CPC 8-14d analog package is full of warm January years.  That said, during December it was full of cold January years.  So, it can adjust.  Oddly, the GFS/GEFS had been doing remarkably well w/ catching the Jan5-10th cold front...but seems overly warm after that.  You can almost see on the verification charts above...it begins to slip.  American modeling warmed in the LR last time we saw HL blocking/strat warming show up in modeling during early December.  For now, it is all spitballing and speculation at this range.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I think one of the problems models are having in the medium to long range right now, is that the Pac jet is about to retract pretty abruptly from a basin wide extension to one that is more normal for a Nina:

You had this a couple of days ago:

 

and you are going to something that looks a lot more choppyL

 

I think that's partly why the GFS or all models seems to have done so well with the pattern we are in now. The jet was pretty much overwhelming everything and it was pretty easy to see where individual shortwaves would end up. As that breaks apart though, you get individual shortwaves still flying with the speed that jet imparted, but without it aiming them all to one place. So we get the bowling ball type pattern past day 10. 

I will also be interested to see how all this adjusts if and when the MJO actually makes some head way into 8/1

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Interesting stuff.   One of the guys in the NE or MA forum was talking about it as well.   It will potentially allow for the Jan 5-10th trough to quickly retract westward which we see right after the 10th.  I think the trough during La Nina is default Mountain West anyway.  The trick is seeing if the cold will spread eastward.  

Ultimately, I think the MJO, strat split, and potential ensuing block(where does the cold dump?) are going to be the drivers.  At some point if Nina continues to hold on, the trough is going to stick in the West and hold.  I don't think we are there quite yet.  What we need is for El Nino climatology to high the QBO/Nina pattern.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z CMC is close to a lot of decent looks.  Temps are marginal at best, but lots of sliders and lows beneath us.  Again, I think the GFS is struggling right now.  It really has since the week during fall.  It definitely has problems w/ the Pacific contruct for lac of a better phrase.  

[Itryatgolf70]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

I actually don't think we have chased unicorns at all up to this point which is a plus!  That can always change.  We usually work winter through about early April.  LOL.  So far though, this is textbook Nina progression for our region.  Cold/seasonal December -> warm Jan -> warmer February but w/ Jan and Feb featuring extreme swings.  Again of note, there is a colder cluster of analogs for year 3 Ninas.  If it continues to follow that path, we should see one or two more maybe severe shot of cold east of the MS.  Think Memphis a couple of years ago.  Honestly, the analog from a couple of years ago is similar off the top of my head.  Early cold and snow.  Then there was a warm-up.  Then the middle and western areas of our forum got hammered w/ a multi day overrunning event.  The thing to look for if severe cold is on the horizon is A LOT of flip flopping by operationals and some by the ensembles.    

And of course it can always stay warm.....the current CPC 8-14d analog package is full of warm January years.  That said, during December it was full of cold January years.  So, it can adjust.  Oddly, the GFS/GEFS had been doing remarkably well w/ catching the Jan5-10th cold front...but seems overly warm after that.  You can almost see on the verification charts above...it begin to slip.  American modeling warmed in the LR last time we saw HL blocking/strat warming show up in modeling during early December.  For now, it is all spitballing and speculation at this range.

A guy at 33andrain.com said the mjo won't effect the atmosphere unless it gets into a decent amplitude when it gets there

[Carvers Gap]

12 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

A guy at 33andrain.com said the mjo won't effect the atmosphere unless it gets into a decent amplitude when it gets there

I very rarely read other sites than AmWx, but I have read similar thoughts on this forum(maybe MA).  Our weather has responded accordingly so far this winter to MJO cycles.  Within four days of it going into warm cycles, it turned very warm here right after Christmas.  Is it possible that it decouples?  Sure.  That happens.  We have been cold during warm phases before.  I am sure the opposite could happen.  But until it actually decouples, I will give it weight.  The waffling in LR modeling actually parallels nicely the MJO trying to loop back in 7.  

[Met1985]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I very rarely read other sites than AmWx, but I have read similar thoughts on this forum(maybe MA).  Our weather has responded accordingly so far this winter to MJO cycles.  Within four days of it going into warm cycles, it turned very warm here right after Christmas.  Is it possible that it decouples?  Sure.  That happens.  We have been cold during warm phases before.  I am sure the opposite could happen.  But until it actually decouples, I will give it weight.  The waffling in LR modeling actually parallels nicely the MJO trying to loop back in 7.  

Carver we have been in a back and fourth pattern really since September.  Cold then warm then cold. We actually had a great Fall here. I see nothing to change my mind of that same pattern continuing right through the end of the season although March and April can be wildcard months for us. This pattern recognition is extremely stable in my opinion with obvious extremes worked in as we have see the past few weeks. 

The cold snap was historical if you asked me but some have downplayed this for some reason.  This warm-up is nothing new really with what we've seen the past few winters...

[John1122]

33 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

A guy at 33andrain.com said the mjo won't effect the atmosphere unless it gets into a decent amplitude when it gets there

This is false. GaWx has shown before using his records that the atmosphere reflects the phase, even when it is in the CoD.  

[Carvers Gap]

17 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Carver we have been in a back and fourth patter really since September.  Cold then warm then cold. We actually had a great Fall here. I see nothing to change my mind of that same pattern continuing right through the end of the season although March and April can be wildcard months for us. This pattern recognition is extremely stable in my opinion with obvious extremes worked in as we have see the past few weeks. 

The cold snap was historical if you asked me but some have downplayed is for some reason.  This warm-up is nothing new really with what we've seen the past few winters...

Ditto.  Well said.

[tnweathernut]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

This is false. GaWx has shown before using his records that the atmosphere reflects the phase, even when it is in the CoD.  

I was about to chime in with the same.  I thought I remembered Larry proving this.   

I'm not yet convinced we see a SSW.  Getting jostled around is much easier than a true splitting and wind reversal.  I guess time will tell, but several of the stratospheric experts are also not on board with a split yet.  I'm on record with not wanting a split.  Too many unknowns and opportunities for failure.  In the south we do failure well in relation to all things winter.

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I very rarely read other sites than AmWx, but I have read similar thoughts on this forum(maybe MA).  Our weather has responded accordingly so far this winter to MJO cycles.  Within four days of it going into warm cycles, it turned very warm here right after Christmas.  Is it possible that it decouples?  Sure.  That happens.  We have been cold during warm phases before.  I am sure the opposite could happen.  But until it actually decouples, I will give it weight.  The waffling in LR modeling actually parallels nicely the MJO trying to loop back in 7.  

Exactly. If you just look at where the Model's have the MJO, you'll see the correspondence in the 500 Chart's.

     It carries alot of weight. 

[Itryatgolf70]

Carver, check out Alan Huffman's post on twitter when you get a chance. It makes alot of sense imo

[*Flash*]

We can work with a neutral or -PNA and hope we get favorable Omega block orientations. Problem is I don't see any teleconnection support for western/eastern troughs simultaneously at this time (apart from what we hope verifies). I think Holston's post from earlier is somewhat an antidote to Huffman's post. If primary modeling struggles to capture a Pineapple Express deceleration, makes sense to see D11-15 inconsistency and waffling. Either way, I'm taking a DT approach for now and crossing my fingers. Hopefully whatever week 2-3 clarity we glean in the short term will prove educational at the very least. 

[Carvers Gap]

To echo @Met1985, I think we can can get caught-up in lots of causal stuff when really the pattern has been repeating for some time.  It is quite literally the MJO cycle which has been quietly driving the pattern.  The HB bay block is the issue right now.  I will have to go back and look at a previous winter.  Nearly the exact same HB block occurred occurred.  A southerly displaced HB block locked-in.  We had great tracks but not as much cold due to maritime influence.   As for this month, the PNA/EPO ridge was an error by late December modeling - it never developed.  When we lost the NAO, things went warm.  As @Daniel Boone noted, the GOA low is the issue.  The counter clockwise rotation when it hits the southern jet....  That GOA low is locked in tandem w/ the HB block.  It is kind of a chicken and egg argument.  

The Euro Weeklies actually look decent this evening.  If I get time, I will post some follow-up thoughts after this post.  It is just kind of a back-and-forth pattern.  The Weeklies weaken the HB block and eventually a trough/ridge cycle returns to the US which looks quite similar to November.   Kind of like unplugging a drain line when that block eases....  The upcoming SE trough retrogrades briefly into the west, but as the HB block dissipates, it pushes into the nation's mid-section and then eastward.  The EPS and Weeklies have been pretty consistent with this look.  The CFSv2 is looking similar today.

AtlanticWx had a post yesterday in the MA forum about the jet extension.  I knew I had read it somewhere.  I am not sure where he got it.