January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, tnweathernut said:

If you got a dusting last night, you got me beat...........  lol  

I agree with the bold above ........One of the companies I represent is working toward 1,000 pipe break claims to show how unique this cold snap has been.  They have less than 8% of the market share in the state of Tennessee.  State Farm and Farm Bureau have around 50%.  I can only imagine how many total water claims there will be from all the companies combined.  

Man, I went running last evening.  I drive a truck, but decided to take the van instead.  Bad decision.  We got caught in that band south of Kingsport.  It was pouring in Colonial Heights.  I got to my house, and nada.  We got a very slight dusting which makes our second.

[Carvers Gap]

This is ONLY an example as it is too far out there to be taken seriously.  This is my concern w/ the HB block.  Because of the configuration in the Pac(PNA is weak), this is all zonal maritime air.  We have seen this during at some point during the past three winters.  I remember being excited about the HB block when it first showed up a few years ago.  I soon was faced with the reality that it wasn't going to deliver as once thought.  The source region was hot garbage.  We got a ton of storms which passed to our south, and got a ton of rain.   I think we do OK immediately after this, but if this locks....not good.

 

[Carvers Gap]

This is a much better look....

[John1122]

38 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Very true.  These past two Nina winters have featured a several early season cold outbreaks, and some December snow....then IMBY(NE TN for those new to the forum) after December - zip.   The primary storm track is right over E TN which means snow to my west and rain here.  Middle and west TN, after MANY subpar winters, are poised to take the third straight season of of "most snow."  Even TYS and MRX have been getting more snow during these Nina winters.  In a normal winter, TRI usually gets far more snow other than your region.  The problem for us during Nina's is storm track(no coastals which we need here), and drought which causes dry conditions during fall.  Drought begets drought here.  It takes a while to break it which means when temps are colder during Ninas(Dec), dry conditions persist, and it is nearly impossible to line-up cold and precip.   14-15 was rare IMBY, because we got northwest flow in Kingsport which is not normal.  Sometimes it just snows where it is gonna snow.

Those coastals get trapped and turn into 50/50 lows during the -NAO. We just didn't have one this time. 

The pattern broke down faster than normal too. Usually a block that delivers this kind of cold, delivers multiple shots. No go this time. 

We still have all our prime snow climo left. Doesn't mean we see another flake but I'll be shocked if we don't get a good storm in the area, even if it doesn't land imby. 

[Carvers Gap]

I was taking just a few minutes to look at generalized temp patterns during La Nina winters.  December is textbook Nina.  The atmospheric river is about to take care of any precip deficits on the West coast.

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

I posted the above in order to show how hostile climatology is towards coastal storms - aka as why E TN has less snow during some(certainly not all) Nina winters.  Dial up whatever pattern we want...and climo is pretty hostile to colder weather from the spine of the Apps to the East coast.  It took a record cold snap to drive cold to the coast this time around.  There are some notable exceptions.  Some of the very worst winters in my lifetime were weak La Ninas - snow, ice, cold.  Some of the dries/coldest are weak La Ninas.  They are extreme winters.  Conversely, Nino winters are 40s/50s for highs w/ rain all winter long - not a lot of variability.  Nina winters are HIGHLY variable as we are seeing this winter.   

When one looks at modeling, we can see the clusters of cold Nina cold winters from time to time.  We also see the ones where winter gets progressively warmer which is also textbook Nina, especially for E TN.   It was an easy call to say cold was coming for December.  I am wary of a mirage for January as cold runs against the more weighted cluster of winters which warm as winter progresses.  OTH, there are some winters which warmed, and then flipped back cold.  I seriously doubt outside of a good guess(and excluding skilled, elite wx forecasters), many have a good handle on what comes after Jan5th and include me in the bunch which don't know.  I lean cold, but am much less certain than the December call.

[Carvers Gap]

I will keep it short and sweet.  12z suite in three words so far in the LR....HB block, zonal

[Carvers Gap]

The CMC at 12z is probably our best path forward.  After nice runs at 6z and 12z, the GFS wen puke city both in the operational and ensemble.  The CFSv2 may need some credit as it has been fairly decent over the past few days in sniffing out more warmth than the other models did.  That said, this is far, far from over as the first seasonal front(not really cold) is due just after the 5th and maybe e cold front by the 8th.  

[Carvers Gap]

Definitely can kicking today.  The EPS has the pattern change now after 300+.  The GFS/GEFS was much too quick w/ the return to cold.  I do wonder if we see it return during January at all, but I suspect we will.  The HB block is no friend in its current configuration (w the Pac).  We are about to find out what happens w/ no block over Greenland in combination w/ a bad Pac.  I have my doubts that the PNA shows up at all.  We may be waiting for the NAO to show-up again.  This could still flip around as this is still way out there.  My guess is more can kicking and cold around Jan15th. 

...sign the waiver

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Definitely can kicking today.  The EPS has the pattern change now after 300+.  The GFS/GEFS was much too quick w/ the return to cold.  I do wonder if we see it return during January at all, but I suspect we will.  The HB block is no friend in its current configuration (w the Pac).  We are about to find out what happens w/ no block over Greenland in combination w/ a bad Pac.  I have my doubts that the PNA shows up at all.  We may be waiting for the NAO to show-up again.  This could still flip around as this is still way out there.  My guess is more can kicking and cold around Jan15th. 

...sign the waiver

Yeah, may be another 3 weeks overall mild stretch. Fits what's been happening. 

[Carvers Gap]

59 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, may be another 3 weeks overall mild stretch. Fits what's been happening. 

I still think we have a storm window between the 7th-10th just due to nothing more than a decent storm track in early January. I think we are looking at a minimum of 3 weeks before the cold returns, possible 6 weeks if this is a new pattern.  Modeling will hopefully tell us more during the next 3-4 days.  Today's trends were 10/10 in terms of bad trends!  LOL.

[Daniel Boone]

24 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I still think we have a storm window between the 7th-10th just due to nothing more than a decent storm track in early January. I think we are looking at a minimum of 3 weeks before the cold returns, possible 6 weeks if this is a new pattern.  Modeling will hopefully tell us more during the next 3-4 days.  Today's trends were 10/10 in terms of bad trends!  LOL.

Yep. Hopefully, we can luck out in that small window. 

[Itryatgolf70]

I think we need to take a break until mid January, and at that point if things look bad, may be time to waive the white flag lol. Hopefully we have a few more opportunities at cold and snow here at some point this winter.

[Carvers Gap]

Mega path-out-of-the-eastern ridge post.  Both the 18z GEFS and CFSv2 showed either some noise in today's trends or are tending back.  50/50 as to what.  I looked at the MJO to see why the LR had gone to crap today.  See the loop....That is the pause or the kick-the-can which we saw today.  The GEFS below:

But the CFSv2 has this, and I have been waiting for its own model output to reflect the progression below:

And here is the 18z 7day panels beginning on Jan8th:

It is understandably quite cold under those BN height looks.  I do think the pattern flips west at some point unless the Nina can take hold.  Notice the NAO showing back up?  

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Re: the above...The 13th-20th would be ideal in terms of both storm track and temps.  THAT is how a HB block should work.  One thing which is showing up on some model runs today(and has to be watched) is AN heights sneaking back into Alaska.    The CFSv2 has done pretty well this winter at 500mb, and that is only one run(sign the waiver).  It will bounce around some, but it is nice to see a run which reflects its slow moving MJO.  Speaking of slow moving, IF the MJO gets into 8...it might not be in a hurry.   I think the saving grace this winter will be the eventual return of the NAO later in January.  

And nah, this place never shuts down.  LOL.  I will get out and enjoy the weather before it gets cold again.  Many people up here are having to fix pipes.  We need the warmth to get things fixed.  I talked to the check-out lady at Home Depot today.  She said it was slammed on Monday w/ the majority of sales being plumbing.  I had some relatives w/ a pipe break.   A lot of people lost water on Saturday and w/ stores closed on Sunday...had to sit for 48 hours with no water.  So yes, we are good w/ a warm-up for once!

 

[Carvers Gap]

The 6z GFS has lots of activity into marginal temps.  Coastals, sliders, and cutters.   It looks like an active STJ during prime climatology.  We may have to thread the needle a bit, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see someone in the forum area score some snow between Jan 5-15th.  Let’s see if modeling continues those good trends...

[Carvers Gap]

Since we are in some down time...let's play guess that analog.  I have been digging around looking for HB blocks in the middle of January.  So far, not many.  The 0z EPS and 6z GEFS below are IMHO a southward displacement of that analog.  That displaced look is yielding very different results in modeling than the analog, but the look was strikingly comparable.  Now, assuming I didn't leave an unforeseen time stamp on that analog, which one is it(without going to the re-analysis page)?

 

 

 

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Since we are in some down time...let's play guess that analog.  I have been digging around looking for HB blocks in the middle of January.  So far, not many.  The 0z EPS and 6z GEFS below are IMHO a southward displacement of that analog.  That displaced look is yielding very different results in modeling than the analog, but the look was strikingly comparable.  Now, assuming I didn't leave an unforeseen time stamp on that analog, which one is it(without going to the re-analysis page)?

 

 

 

I think 09-10 actually had that a time or two and we scored once while eastern slopes and MA did from both. 

[Carvers Gap]

35 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

I think 09-10 actually had that a time or two and we scored once while eastern slopes and MA did from both. 

Very good and I didn't expect any less from you!  Yes, that is January 2010.  

[Carvers Gap]

That is a very cold run of the 12z GFS.  

[Carvers Gap]

We can live with the global deterministic(operational) runs today.  Storm track is really good.

[matt9697]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

That is a very cold run of the 12z GFS.  

Careful what we wish for

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, matt9697 said:

Careful what we wish for

To clarify..I want standard run-of-the-mill cold and not bust-my-pipes cold.  

[Carvers Gap]

Weeklies looked really good.  If I get time I will try to get a break down of them.  When you see snow in the GOM.  But I do bring this nugget(Euro control):

 

[matt9697]

8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

To clarify..I want standard run-of-the-mill cold and not bust-my-pipes cold.  

Yea i have to fix some tomorrow 

[Carvers Gap]

12 minutes ago, matt9697 said:

Yea i have to fix some tomorrow 

I did just replace our kitchen faucet, but it just finally broke down(not due to cold).   I put it off long enough until finally the water on the kitchen floor made me pay attention to it.   I was glad that was all it was as the outside faucet is hooked into that line, and I thought it broke.  I was relieved to find that the faucet was all it was.  

[Carvers Gap]

The Euro Weeklies.  First image is the 30day control run(Jan13-Feb13).  Please refer to the Jan 2010 analog above.  Next two are temp and precip.  If the Weeklies are correct, they will work.  The storm around the 7th-8th begins to erode the warmth.  Looks like the real fireworks begin around the third week of January.  My guess is the ensemble is a bit too slow w/ that progression.  That is a really good look on the control - really good.  

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, matt9697 said:

Careful what we wish for

Euro control during middle of January.  That is a seven day running average for that image..........

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GFS has a storm signal for middle and west TN at 168, and has been pretty consistent in that look for several days(maybe a week).  E TN could score w/ the redevelopment in the Piedmont of a slp.

[Carvers Gap]

Overall, trends have been quite good today.  If I didn't remember yesterday, I would be pretty bullish.  The GFS has cold returning on Jan 5th which is within 7 days now.  Honestly, the warmth today was a welcome respite.  If the Euro control is anywhere close to being correct, we had better enjoy it while it lasts!