January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread

[EastTNWeatherAdmirer]

But I guess we didn’t have much snow this December in the Southeast because we didn’t have much help from the Pacific, Carvers? Maybe that could be the case or the HB block(-NAO) is behaving differently than your typical -NAO. If it behaved like a traditional -NAO we would have had a shot at several December snows. An example of the HB block being a good thing(as itryatgolf70 is saying) was December and January of 2010 when we had the HB block much more “CLOSED OFF” and also perhaps had help from back west, allowing cold air to actually be blocked by the -NAO(Hudson Bay) block. It does seem like the -NAO has behaved a little different this year in December 2022 than your typical one that blocks cold air over the south and east, forcing big southern snow and overrunning. It’s almost like the block over the HB region this year wasn’t fully autonomous but had a connection with the SER(as golf man was saying), instead of there being a massive 50/50 low, as in 2010. This year’s NAO does seem like it has created zonal flow like Carvers was saying but traditionally is pretty good for significant snow in the south when it’s not trying to connect with the SE ridge or hurt by the pacific pattern, as it was this year. 
 

Plenty of snow in December 2010 defying the climo I suppose. 

[Daniel Boone]

2 minutes ago, EastTNWeatherAdmirer said:

But I guess we didn’t have much snow this December in the Southeast because we didn’t have much help from the Pacific, Carvers? Maybe that could be the case or the HB block(-NAO) is behaving differently than your typical -NAO. If it behaved like a traditional -NAO we would have had a shot at several December snows. An example of the HB block being a good thing(as itryatgolf70 is saying) was December and January of 2010 when we had the HB block much more “CLOSED OFF” and also perhaps had help from back west, allowing cold air to actually be blocked by the -NAO(Hudson Bay) block. It does seem like the -NAO has behaved a little different this year in December 2022 than your typical one that blocks cold air over the south and east, forcing big southern snow and overrunning. It’s almost like the block over the HB region this year wasn’t fully autonomous but had a connection with the SER(as golf man was saying), instead of there being a massive 50/50 low, as in 2010. This year’s NAO does seem like it has created zonal flow like Carvers was saying but traditionally is pretty good for significant snow in the south when it’s not trying to connect with the SE ridge or hurt by the pacific pattern, as it was this year. 

Actually, a key missing component this year has been the 50-50 Low. Without it the strong -NAO linked with the SER and resulted in a full latt. Eastern Ridge at times. 

[EastTNWeatherAdmirer]

Here is one response I got on Southern WX when I inquired about the NAO earlier this month. Basically, yeah it’s the absence of the 50/50 low which was caused trouble and this is because the block over the HB region is much less closed off than it was in 2010. Here are some more images which help to tell the story:

[EastTNWeatherAdmirer]

The Greenland block is much less closed off this year. If it was closed off that we would have no problem with warm coming up the eastern seaboard ahead of the cold air intrusions. 

[Itryatgolf70]

2 minutes ago, EastTNWeatherAdmirer said:

Here is one response I got on Southern WX when I inquired about the NAO earlier this month. Basically, yeah it’s the absence of the 50/50 low which was caused trouble and this is because the block over the HB region is much less closed off than it was in 2010. Here are some more images which help to tell the story:

The nao did help some, but we didn't get the real benefits from it, especially since it was so strong and west based. This December, the trough was too much on the west cost instead of off the west coast. We got crazy cold from the -EPO and WPO. Hopefully the SSW event materializes for us but they can be tricky as well know

[Itryatgolf70]

6 minutes ago, EastTNWeatherAdmirer said:

The Greenland block is much less closed off this year. If it was closed off that we would have no problem with warm coming up the eastern seaboard ahead of the cold air intrusions. 

Hopefully we will have another opportunity at a -nao that will be in a better position for us. I know at one time HM has been hinting at that potential 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Y’all are wanting to not just beat the dead horse but resurrect it lol. I was going to try and keep peace and let it go, but since the horse is getting shocked by those chest pads…. 
 

I’ll poke a little bit too and say that the -5 standard deviation EPO schmaybe had something to do with the cold and snow we just experienced. I’ll grant that the NAO helped aim it, but I don’t think we would have had such cold if the EPO hadn’t dislodged it. 

[Carvers Gap]

56 minutes ago, EastTNWeatherAdmirer said:

But I guess we didn’t have much snow this December in the Southeast because we didn’t have much help from the Pacific, Carvers? Maybe that could be the case or the HB block(-NAO) is behaving differently than your typical -NAO. If it behaved like a traditional -NAO we would have had a shot at several December snows. An example of the HB block being a good thing(as itryatgolf70 is saying) was December and January of 2010 when we had the HB block much more “CLOSED OFF” and also perhaps had help from back west, allowing cold air to actually be blocked by the -NAO(Hudson Bay) block. It does seem like the -NAO has behaved a little different this year in December 2022 than your typical one that blocks cold air over the south and east, forcing big southern snow and overrunning. It’s almost like the block over the HB region this year wasn’t fully autonomous but had a connection with the SER(as golf man was saying), instead of there being a massive 50/50 low, as in 2010. This year’s NAO does seem like it has created zonal flow like Carvers was saying but traditionally is pretty good for significant snow in the south when it’s not trying to connect with the SE ridge or hurt by the pacific pattern, as it was this year. 
 

Plenty of snow in December 2010 defying the climo I suppose. 

 

I am very aware of 09-10 and it is an anomaly re: December snow.  You are missing the point.  My point is that NAO blocking is effective as you just effectively proved.  We normally don't get great NAO's early in the season and that conflicts directly w/ December's climatology in the eastern valley. One might make the case that December's climatology is actually not favorable for snow as blocking often develops later in winter.  That might be why we don't have many 09-10 examples in the past 50 years.  Snow is often just luck of the draw in regards to timing.  The STJ, if I remember correctly, was more active during the cold snap of 09-10.  Heck, the actual snow were got was terribly forecasted as many were caught on the road during rush hour.  We entered this December in a drought.  That is a pretty big difference.  If the STJ had been active this December...different result.

[Carvers Gap]

41 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Y’all are wanting to not just beat the dead horse but resurrect it lol. I was going to try and keep peace and let it go, but since the horse is getting shocked by those chest pads…. 
 

I’ll poke a little bit too and say that the -5 standard deviation EPO schmaybe had something to do with the cold and snow we just experienced. I’ll grant that the NAO helped aim it, but I don’t think we would have had such cold if the EPO hadn’t dislodged it. 

Yeah, it is just off in the weeds rounding back on the same points.

[Carvers Gap]

37 minutes ago, EastTNWeatherAdmirer said:

Here is one response I got on Southern WX when I inquired about the NAO earlier this month. Basically, yeah it’s the absence of the 50/50 low which was caused trouble and this is because the block over the HB region is much less closed off than it was in 2010. Here are some more images which help to tell the story:

Yeah, we posted the 10-11 analogs back in mid November in the December thread - nearly those exact images.

 

[Carvers Gap]

PNA DRIVER?  Moving the conversation forward.  Afternoon modeling points towards an easterly displaced PNA ridge(almost a Plains ridge at times) which at times may hook into the HB block.  It is not a great position for the PNA - need it back west just a tad.  That said, I don't think modeling has this totally nailed down yet.  If we were wanting to play the Nino card...the BN weakness over east w/ the PNA hooked into HL blocking looks almost textbook in the d10-15 EPS run.  Will it have a source region for cold?  TBD...and an important question to be answered moving forward.  Of importance, our climatology begins to favor snow.  There is less working against us.  And sometimes....it just snows where it wants to snow regardless of the pattern.  I have seen snow during warm patterns.  And as we noted over the summer, Nina set-ups tend to favor middle and west TN.  Does the waning Nina begin to release that grip and allow E TN snow?  TBD...or Does Nina hang on and send the trough back to the northwest?  TBD. Again, I like the 10-11 analog.  Let's see if it still works in January.

 

[Carvers Gap]

And continuing to look forward, some things I have seen in modeling just to review or add to:

1.  The MJO generally looks like it will traverse the cold phases at low amplitude.

2.  The CFSv2 is not enthused w/ cold until later in the month on about every-other-run.

3.  Ensembles are a buffet of PNA and/or HB blocks w/ generally BN heights over the SE and E by Jan 8-10.  We lose the Greenland block for some time.  There are hints it may return.

4.  Be happy you live on this side of the Apps in regards to cold and snow. If indeed this is the start to winter(and not the totality of winter as seen in 89), last week was a great start.

5.  The Euro Weeklies (difficult to know if bias is in play there), takes the trough back northwest during the fourth week of January, and never looks back.  That is plausible and is even in my winter forecast which I put out in June.  I am not overly confident the Weeklies are correct there, but they could be.  I tend to think the same pattern (cold builds in the Mountain West and spreads eastward) is the base pattern w/ a standing SER in the SE during the interludes.

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Y’all are wanting to not just beat the dead horse but resurrect it lol. I was going to try and keep peace and let it go, but since the horse is getting shocked by those chest pads…. 
 

I’ll poke a little bit too and say that the -5 standard deviation EPO schmaybe had something to do with the cold and snow we just experienced. I’ll grant that the NAO helped aim it, but I don’t think we would have had such cold if the EPO hadn’t dislodged it. 

To paraphrase Bob Chill today, in order to have big storm on the East Coast, we need the Atlantic to be good, and....we just need the Pacific to be not hostile.  As soon as the Pacific became less hostile, the dam broke.  Had the NAO not been there, we would have torched the entire month IMO.  It saved us from a continuation of fall.  I honestly do not understand the debate that the NAO didn't produce.  I have been watching weather a very long time....these types of Decembers are rare birds.  O9-10 is a rare bird.  The Christmas snow that we had two years ago...rare.  Generally, December is a step down to winter.  No matter the synoptic set-up, it is generally not snow.  For every, 09-10 I can provide 25 examples to the counter re: December.  This December has featured record cold, crazy low wind chills, snow in middle and west TN, nearly record high (edit)  pressures in Montana, blizzards, and more.  Just because one doesn't get snow in their own backyard doesn't mean the NAO was not effective.  As we all know snow requires a bit of "luck." Right now, the NAO helped ward off a rising QBO and terrible Pac.   In fact, this December would rival many January and February patterns.  I just hope folks can appreciate that what just occurred is not the norm, and is far from it.  We were fortunate to track it and witness it.  That big red ball over Greenland surely beats the big red ball over the Aleutians.  And I am speaking as probably someone who received the least snow in the entire forum this month outside of Chattanooga.  

 

I would add that the NAO has been far more present during the past 2-3 years.  I don't think it an accident that middle and west TN have experienced more snowfall(compared to putrid previous years) during that timeframe either.  The Nina kicks that cold to the mid-section, but the cold is available.   I certainly agree that having Pacific healthy is a good thing.  I just strongly disagree that the NAO didn't produce.

[EastTNWeatherAdmirer]

Hi Carvers, thank you for your responses. 
Do you think there is any particular reason there was no 50/50 low with this negative NAO? If the strong - NAO wasn’t a factor in it being present this year, then there must be something else at play, some confounding variable that is or isn’t inclined to the development of a 50/50 low. 
And subsequently without this low, no Mid-Atlantic snowstorm was generated where the -NAO usually brings big snow. 
 

One of the images below is the snowfall anomaly trend with -NAOs and the other is the snowfall we have seen this season so far. There has been very little to no snow where the most snow typically falls with a -NAO(such as the western N.C. Piedmont), as I have highlighted in the black boxes.  

[Itryatgolf70]

27 minutes ago, EastTNWeatherAdmirer said:

Hi Carvers, thank you for your responses. 
Do you think there is any particular reason there was no 50/50 low with this negative NAO? If the strong - NAO wasn’t a factor in it being present this year, then there must be something else at play, some confounding variable that is or isn’t inclined to the development of a 50/50 low. 
And subsequently without this low, no Mid-Atlantic snowstorm was generated where the -NAO usually brings big snow. 
 

One of the images below is the snowfall anomaly trend with -NAOs and the other is the snowfall we have seen this season so far. There has been very little to no snow where the most snow typically falls with a -NAO(such as the western N.C. Piedmont), as I have highlighted in the black boxes.  

Imo, if we can get another -epo/wpo combo and or develop another -nao coupled with a stj that's active, we will be in good shape. We really haven't had an active stj while it's been cold yet

[Carvers Gap]

41 minutes ago, EastTNWeatherAdmirer said:

Hi Carvers, thank you for your responses. 
Do you think there is any particular reason there was no 50/50 low with this negative NAO? If the strong - NAO wasn’t a factor in it being present this year, then there must be something else at play, some confounding variable that is or isn’t inclined to the development of a 50/50 low. 
And subsequently without this low, no Mid-Atlantic snowstorm was generated where the -NAO usually brings big snow. 
 

One of the images below is the snowfall anomaly trend with -NAOs and the other is the snowfall we have seen this season so far. There has been very little to no snow where the most snow typically falls with a -NAO(such as the western N.C. Piedmont), as I have highlighted in the black boxes.  

I read a lot of the MA forum.  Those guys really depend on the 50/50.  Just gleening from them, December is rarely a good month for snow.  I am guessing that feature is more prominent Jan-March but not certain.  Good stuff, man!

[tnweathernut]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

To paraphrase Bob Chill today, in order to have big storm on the East Coast, we need the Atlantic to be good, and....we just need the Pacific to be not hostile.  As soon as the Pacific became less hostile, the dam broke.  Had the NAO not been there, we would have torched the entire month IMO.  It saved us from a continuation of fall.  I honestly do not understand the debate that the NAO didn't produce.  I have been watching weather a very long time....these types of Decembers are rare birds.  O9-10 is a rare bird.  The Christmas snow that we had two years ago...rare.  Generally, December is a step down to winter.  No matter the synoptic set-up, it is generally not snow.  For every, 09-10 I can provide 25 examples to the counter re: December.  This December has featured record cold, crazy low wind chills, snow in middle and west TN, nearly record low pressures in Montana, blizzards, and more.  Just because one doesn't get snow in their own backyard doesn't mean the NAO was not effective.  As we all know snow requires a bit of "luck." Right now, the NAO helped ward off a rising QBO and terrible Pac.   In fact, this December would rival many January and February patterns.  I just hope folks can appreciate that what just occurred is not the norm, and is far from it.  We were fortunate to track it and witness it.  That big red ball over Greenland surely beats the big red ball over the Aleutians.  And I am speaking as probably someone who received the least snow in the entire forum this month outside of Chattanooga.  

If you got a dusting last night, you got me beat...........  lol  

I agree with the bold above ........One of the companies I represent is working toward 1,000 pipe break claims to show how unique this cold snap has been.  They have less than 8% of the market share in the state of Tennessee.  State Farm and Farm Bureau have around 50%.  I can only imagine how many total water claims there will be from all the companies combined.  

[John1122]

Certain parts of the forum, because it's laid out so far West to East, depend on different drivers for snow to large extent. Mountain ranges also significantly affect things. 

Our golden ideal is +PNA/-NAO/-AO.  That pattern is more likely to promote Southern sliders that don't warm nose and get basically everyone from Dyersburg and Memphis to Chattanooga and Bristol VA. 

But there are other ways to skin the cat. The Pacific can drive the whole bus for us all, but especially Plateau and West. The NAO has a tougher time overcoming a hostile Pacific but a neutral Pacific can let it make hay. 

The Pacific fueled the extreme winter of 2014-15.  That was very nearly all EPO driven. Those are still broad pattern drivers but smaller drivers ultimately decide the actual weather. That's why it can rain in a favorable patten and snow in a bad one. 

 

Give me a banana high in Iowa and  Pennsylvania with a low in the gulf and I'll take my chances in any winter month. 

[John1122]

21 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I read a lot of the MA forum.  Those guys really depend on the 50/50.  Just gleening from them, December is rarely a good month for snow.  I am guessing that feature is more prominent Jan-March but not certain.  Good stuff, man!

I live in a reasonably snowy area of the forum and my normal for December is 3 inches. Pretty much everywhere in the state that got 2 inches already are above normal for December snow. 

My average goes up to 7.5 in January and 9.5 in February, then 3.5 in March. March is a snowier month than December on average. 

 

[Itryatgolf70]

6 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I live in a reasonably snowy area of the forum and my normal for December is 3 inches. Pretty much everywhere in the state that got 2 inches already are above normal for December snow. 

My average goes up to 7.5 in January and 9.5 in February, then 3.5 in March. March is a snowier month than December on average. 

 

13-14 winter was also epo/wpo driven. Incredible winter for us imo. You want the pacific on your side in terms of cold. 

[beavis1729]

25 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I live in a reasonably snowy area of the forum and my normal for December is 3 inches. Pretty much everywhere in the state that got 2 inches already are above normal for December snow. 

My average goes up to 7.5 in January and 9.5 in February, then 3.5 in March. March is a snowier month than December on average. 

 

I hope you all don’t mind the perspective of an outsider…but part of the frustration (even up here in N IL) is that, if you don’t get the cold and snow to produce when the pattern is “good”, then you have to suffer through the other times. It would be nice if you didn’t need a million things to go right to actually have wintry weather in winter. In other words, it should be wintry simply because the calendar says it’s winter. 
 

Even up here, it will be in the 40s and 50s later this week…and we only got 1-2” of snow over the past couple of weeks. So, all of that effort of the decent pattern will be wasted, as the little bit of snow we did get ends up melting over the next few days. 
 

For snow lovers, you just want winter to be winter. The problem is that our non-good patterns aren’t wintry at all. I like to say “we don’t have winter; we only have wintry periods”. Even in the depth of winter (January), our average high is 32…meaning that some snow (if there even is any on the ground) melts on half the days. And it’s even worse in Dec and Feb. 
 

To me, that’s not winter. In order to live in a climate that truly has a winter season, you need 80%+ of the days in DJF to be “wintry”…which I define as a high temp of 32 or colder AND at least 2” of snow cover. We never come close to that 80% number here, because there are too many thaws. Our best winters like 1978-79 and 2013-14 are probably around 60-70%.
 

The ironic thing is that, if you drive 200 miles due north of here into central WI, it changes dramatically…as average DJF temps are 5-10F colder (driven by colder nights due to snow cover and no UHI) with about 25% more snowfall. There’s a very large Midwest winter gradient. 
 

In JJA, the weather often feels like summer…like it should. I just want winter to feel like winter, and not have to worry about the snow melting.  Seasons in seasons. 
 

Forgive my rant, and carry on. I love the discussion in this forum, so I hope you don’t mind my brief venting. Yes - we winter lovers often have unrealistic expectations. 

[John1122]

1 minute ago, beavis1729 said:

I hope you all don’t mind the perspective of an outsider…but part of the frustration (even up here in N IL) is that, if you don’t get the cold and snow to produce when the pattern is “good”, then you have to suffer through the other times. It would be nice if you didn’t need a million things to go right to actually have wintry weather in…winter.
 

Even up here, it will be in the 40s and 50s later this week…and we only got 1-2” of snow over the past couple of weeks. So, all of that effort of the decent pattern will be wasted, as the little bit of snow we did get ends up melting over the next few days. 
 

For snow lovers, you just want winter to be winter. The problem is that our non-good patterns aren’t wintry at all. I like to say “we don’t have winter; we only have wintry periods”. Even in the depth of winter (January), our average high is 32…meaning that some snow (if there even is any on the ground) melts on half the days. And it’s even worse in Dec and Feb. 
 

To me, that’s not winter. In order to live in a climate that truly has a winter season, you need 80%+ of the days in DJF to be “wintry”…which I define as a high temp of 32 or colder AND at least 2” of snow cover. We never come close to that 80% number here, because there are too many thaws. Our best winters like 1978-79 and 2013-14 are probably around 60-70%.
 

The ironic thing is that, if you drive 200 miles due north of here into central WI, it changes dramatically…as average DJF temps are about 5F colder with about 25% more snowfall. There’s a very large Midwest winter gradient. 
 

In JJA, the weather often feels like summer…like it should. I just want winter to feel like winter, and not have to worry about the snow melting.  Seasons in seasons. 
 

Forgive my rant, and carry on. I love the discussion in this forum, so I hope you don’t mind my brief venting. Yes - we winter lovers often have unrealistic expectations. 

I think down this way we want one good storm each year and get really happy with more. Imby we can go a month with snow on the ground but it's much more common to get snow that's gone 48 hours later. 

Winters for me lately have been feast or famine. Either well above normal snow or virtually nothing.  The virtually nothing years are made even worse because they've tended to turn wintery in spring and be cold too late. Those winters also seem to coincide with locations around the globe that rarely see anything, getting unusual snow or even blizzards. 

[Daniel Boone]

The debate over the -NAO and whether it produced or didn't is a matter of opinion, I guess. I'll say that it did as far as squelching what would have a very mild month into basically an average one Temp wise by months end.

    Otoh, to say it wasn't far from bringing what a typical -NAO of that magnitude does is just wrong as well. I can bring up plenty of examples going way back to the 60's and even with a crap Pacific and western trough we saw systems bring snow in a west to east fashion. However, if you look at those years you find a formidable "50-50" in place. 

    Some say the Alaskan Block caused the -NAO to not produce in the SE. I don't see nor get that, tbh.?...

   As John noted, the snowmageddon Feb.2015 was all Pac driven. One thing of interest regarding that period however, was the parade of LP's that just trained over the area around Newfoundland. They essentially acted like a "50-50"(more a 60-50) in that they helped funnel arctic air along with the tall western Ridge south into the Eastern US instead of the +NAO wrapping it around and under eastward. 

  That is a rare pattern but, one heck of a cold and snow Producer. So, no you don't have to have a -NAO to get plenty of snow but, it can make it easier and more likely if other parameters line up with it.

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

And continuing to look forward, some things I have seen in modeling just to review or add to:

1.  The MJO generally looks like it will traverse the cold phases at low amplitude.

2.  The CFSv2 is not enthused w/ cold until later in the month on about every-other-run.

3.  Ensembles are a buffet of PNA and/or HB blocks w/ generally BN heights over the SE and E by Jan 8-10.  We lose the Greenland block for some time.  There are hints it may return.

4.  Be happy you live on this side of the Apps in regards to cold and snow. If indeed this is the start to winter(and not the totality of winter as seen in 89), last week was a great start.

5.  The Euro Weeklies (difficult to know if bias is in play there), takes the trough back northwest during the fourth week of January, and never looks back.  That is plausible and is even in my winter forecast which I put out in June.  I am not overly confident the Weeklies are correct there, but they could be.  I tend to think the same pattern (cold builds in the Mountain West and spreads eastward) is the base pattern w/ a standing SER in the SE during the interludes.

I'm with you on all you mention. I think the weeklies may be at err with the end of Jan. onward, particularly if the Nina continues weakening. The MJO I would think would be more aggressive and assertive in cold phases then.

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, tnweathernut said:

If you got a dusting last night, you got me beat...........  lol  

I agree with the bold above ........One of the companies I represent is working toward 1,000 pipe break claims to show how unique this cold snap has been.  They have less than 8% of the market share in the state of Tennessee.  State Farm and Farm Bureau have around 50%.  I can only imagine how many total water claims there will be from all the companies combined.  

It has been really bad over here.  I spoke to someone who was in the Lowe's plumbing department yesterday - slammed.  I can only imagine what regional industries are having to deal with right now.  -20F to -30F wind chills over an entire plant - oof.  Honestly, I am glad for some warmer weather.  

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

I hope you all don’t mind the perspective of an outsider…but part of the frustration (even up here in N IL) is that, if you don’t get the cold and snow to produce when the pattern is “good”, then you have to suffer through the other times. It would be nice if you didn’t need a million things to go right to actually have wintry weather in winter. In other words, it should be wintry simply because the calendar says it’s winter. 
 

Even up here, it will be in the 40s and 50s later this week…and we only got 1-2” of snow over the past couple of weeks. So, all of that effort of the decent pattern will be wasted, as the little bit of snow we did get ends up melting over the next few days. 
 

For snow lovers, you just want winter to be winter. The problem is that our non-good patterns aren’t wintry at all. I like to say “we don’t have winter; we only have wintry periods”. Even in the depth of winter (January), our average high is 32…meaning that some snow (if there even is any on the ground) melts on half the days. And it’s even worse in Dec and Feb. 
 

To me, that’s not winter. In order to live in a climate that truly has a winter season, you need 80%+ of the days in DJF to be “wintry”…which I define as a high temp of 32 or colder AND at least 2” of snow cover. We never come close to that 80% number here, because there are too many thaws. Our best winters like 1978-79 and 2013-14 are probably around 60-70%.
 

The ironic thing is that, if you drive 200 miles due north of here into central WI, it changes dramatically…as average DJF temps are 5-10F colder (driven by colder nights due to snow cover and no UHI) with about 25% more snowfall. There’s a very large Midwest winter gradient. 
 

In JJA, the weather often feels like summer…like it should. I just want winter to feel like winter, and not have to worry about the snow melting.  Seasons in seasons. 
 

Forgive my rant, and carry on. I love the discussion in this forum, so I hope you don’t mind my brief venting. Yes - we winter lovers often have unrealistic expectations. 

Come on over any time, Beavis, and commiserate!  

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

I'm with you on all you mention. I think the weeklies may be at err with the end of Jan. onward, particularly if the Nina continues weakening. The MJO I would think would be more aggressive and assertive in cold phases then.

And truly, snow patterns (snow on snow stuff) have never been the the norm at my elevation.  Those patterns generally involve entrenched cold.  I did wonder if the atmosphere was still able to get severely cold up until last week(like 84-85 cold).  I now know it can.  If snow had been on the ground, we would have approached the all time stuff which is incredible to me.

[Itryatgolf70]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

And truly, snow patterns (snow on snow stuff) have never been the the norm at my elevation.  Those patterns generally involve entrenched cold.  I did wonder if the atmosphere was still able to get severely cold up until last week(like 84-85 cold).  I now know it can.  If snow had been on the ground, we would have approached the all time stuff which is incredible to me.

The good news is that the chances of seeing anything remotely close to last weekend is slim to none for probably another 20-30 years. We just want cold enough for winter weather around here. Hate to waste the coldest month out of the year

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

I think down this way we want one good storm each year and get really happy with more. Imby we can go a month with snow on the ground but it's much more common to get snow that's gone 48 hours later. 

Winters for me lately have been feast or famine. Either well above normal snow or virtually nothing.  The virtually nothing years are made even worse because they've tended to turn wintery in spring and be cold too late. Those winters also seem to coincide with locations around the globe that rarely see anything, getting unusual snow or even blizzards. 

Very true.  These past two Nina winters have featured a several early season cold outbreaks, and some December snow....then IMBY(NE TN for those new to the forum) after December - zip.   The primary storm track is right over E TN which means snow to my west and rain here.  Middle and west TN, after MANY subpar winters, are poised to take the third straight season of of "most snow."  Even TYS and MRX have been getting more snow during these Nina winters.  In a normal winter, TRI usually gets far more snow other than your region.  The problem for us during Nina's is storm track(no coastals which we need here), and drought which causes dry conditions during fall.  Drought begets drought here.  It takes a while to break it which means when temps are colder during Ninas(Dec), dry conditions persist, and it is nearly impossible to line-up cold and precip.   14-15 was rare IMBY, because we got northwest flow in Kingsport which is not normal.  Sometimes it just snows where it is gonna snow.

[Carvers Gap]

5 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

The good news is that the chances of seeing anything remotely close to last weekend is slim to none for probably another 20-30 years. We just want cold enough for winter weather around here. Hate to waste the coldest month out of the year

I would go 50/50 we see temps below zero again.  I generally try to keep my "gut" feelings out of the thread, and just stick to model observations/interpretation.  This winter just has the feeling that we are going to see this pattern repeat.  I have some in-house(meaning in my head) analogs which have been doing pretty ok.  10-11 is a good start.  But this winter has some HL blocking that is old school in nature.  '89 haunts me, and this has some characteristics of that....but some great winters started strong, had a thaw, and then went gangbusters.  That is all I will say or I will have egg on my face!