jaxjagman Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 11 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I think Polarwx is his personal website. Right but i wonder if this site is having the same issues,it dont really show any spike in temps until maybe today or tomorrow?Seems like the maps of what JMA shows we've already seen the winds decelerate last few days,not trying to nit-pick anything 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 11 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: Ah, forget about snow days, schools will be getting some flood days instead. Reminds me of February a few years ago, forget which one, but it was rain, rain, rain. Allow me. 2019: 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 See what happens in the long range,Euro today wants to build a Big Rex block into the Ak,thats not good but there is a trough going through East Asia in a few days,seems possibe at least for now we cool down,warm up then a trough in the East into Feb sometimes in the first week of Feb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 3 hours ago, PowellVolz said: Outside a couple of weeks, today sums up our 22’/23’ winter. It’s 45 and drizzle . 43 and foggy/drizzle here all day today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 2 hours ago, Silas Lang said: Ah, forget about snow days, schools will be getting some flood days instead. Reminds me of February a few years ago, forget which one, but it was rain, rain, rain. We were having that discussion today coming out of church. LOL. I think they better hold-on to those days, especially in NE TN. It doesn't take long to burn through them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I think it is definitely decelerating and weakening and looks to weaken quite a bit more: I guess though instead of splitting it as waves break, those waves that bring the warming are being reflected back down across the north pole into Canada. I really wish there was some 3D way to visualize not just the SPV but how a wave would attack the SPV and then be shunted back down to drive the pattern over N America. That will work right there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 We had some minor river flooding w/ the winter weather event a week or so ago. Other than that, this is one of the few recent winters where flooding hasn't run me off of my normal running routes. We need more rain in NE TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 Meanwhile, WWAs have been posted for the E TN mountains and far eastern mountains of SW VA. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 313 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023 VAZ001-002-006-230400- /O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0002.230123T0500Z-230123T2100Z/ Lee-Wise-Russell- Including the cities of Rose Hill, Big Stone Gap, Norton, Wise, Coeburn, Appalachia, Pardee, Hansonville, Lebanon, Dye, Castlewood, Honaker, and Rosedale 313 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to three inches, mainly at elevations above 2500 feet. Locally higher amounts possible over the highest peaks. * WHERE...Lee, Wise and Russell Counties. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 4 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. And.... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 313 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023 TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-230400- /O.UPG.KMRX.WS.A.0002.230123T0600Z-230124T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0002.230123T0500Z-230123T2100Z/ Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi- Southeast Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Including the cities of Doeville, Mountain City, Neva, Shady Valley, Trade, Laurel Bloomery, Hartford, Cedar Creek, Erwin, Unicoi, Limestone Cove, Hampton, Cades Cove, Elkmont, and Gatlinburg 313 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 5 inches mainly at elevations of 2500 feet or higher. Locally higher amounts possible over the highest peaks. * WHERE...The mountains of east Tennessee. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 4 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 The 18z GFS is picking-up on some light snow TR/F after the system on the 25th passes - Plateau, TRI, SE KY, SW VA, Apps. It is the GFS, so who knows if it is right but the CMC had something similar but slightly lighter. Another lighter event(NE TN; SW VA) ensues Saturday per the 18z GFS. That shouldn't be included in those totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 For posterity as we read back over these threads during later years... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 Couple of snippets from the MRX afternoon disco: Colder air will be pushing in tonight behind the exiting cold front as the axis of the upper trough to our west shifts east. As the trough swings across our area some short wave energy will be rounding the base of the trough which will help to enhance lift later tonight/early Monday morning. We will see an increase in showers this afternoon/evening ahead of the main trough axis/short wave, and as the freezing level lowers we will see a transition to snow starting first over the highest peaks by around midnight and then lowering overnight. With the upslope flow/cold advection continuing into Monday, snow showers will linger especially over the normal upslope terrain areas and these locations will likely see significant snow accumulations. Right now it looks like the highest peaks of the E TN mountains will see 5 or 6 inches over an 15-18 hour period, but the snow accumulation is expected to be highly elevation dependent so these amounts will drop off quickly the lower down one gets. Will issue a winter weather advisory for snow for the E TN mountains as well as Lee, Wise and Russell counties in SW VA. The precipitation will diminish in the afternoon and with maybe just a few flurries over the terrain by the end of the day, and clearing will begin working in from the south. and this....(mountain wave??? and more elevation dependent snow) Tuesday will be dry with near normal temps. Tuesday night a Gulf Low will move quickly up the Mississippi Valley with the help of a strong shortwave. Rain chances will increase after midnight with a rain/snow mix possible in colder locations such as SW Virginia and the higher elevations of the East Tennessee Mountains. Little to no snow accumulation is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon with strong WAA with this system. The low will move through the Ohio Valley Wednesday morning. Conditions will be ideal for mountain wave/downslope wind enhancement with a 65 knot low level jet to our west. If the forecast holds, it looks like 60 to 70 mph wind gusts will be possible in the East Tennessee Mountains and adjacent foothills. In the Tennessee Valley, 30 to 40 mph gusts seem reasonable. Timing of the winds will be late Tuesday night through Wednesday. Heavy rain at times may lead to minor flooding issues late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning/early afternoon. The highest rain totals will be in the southernmost counties and the higher elevations of the East Tennessee Mountains. Storm total QPF is one half inch to 1.25 inches for most locations. Wednesday night and Thursday, a changeover to light snow is expected in SW Virginia and the East Tennessee Mountains as northwesterly upper level flow moves into the region along with colder air near the surface. The northwesterly flow may continue through Saturday morning as the trough sits over the Eastern U.S. The best window for snowfall in the higher elevations of the East Tennessee Mountains and SW Virginia will be Wednesday night through Thursday as wrap around moisture lingers behind the low. Thursday night through Saturday morning may see some flurries or light snow at times but moisture will be lacking by that time and accumulation is less likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 18z GFS was a warm run into February. Back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2023 Author Share Posted January 23, 2023 Ensembles, ensembles, ensembles when talking February. The GFS deterministic run at this range is like a single member of the GEFS at this range. It may show us certain trends, but might want to take a look at the ensembles before being swayed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2023 Author Share Posted January 23, 2023 The 18z GFS was not warm end-to-end. The first 1-9 days is seasonal to BN(edit...had to go check). The issue is the MJO. Take a look at those forecasts on the CPC website and that will explain the understandable waffling at this range. FTR, my seasonal forecast has Feb as much above normal....as I basically just used the past two years of Nina winters to create it. As noted in the Feb thread, part of Feb is likely to be VERY warm before cooling back down. I think our window holds util Feb 5th, then warm for ~10 days, then cold again. Then with shortening wavelengths, something could pop within a 3-4 day window. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2023 Author Share Posted January 23, 2023 Day 1-10 GFS deterministic run....that gets us through the end of this month. As noted, the last third of this month would see a pattern change. There it is. Now, we will see if it verifies. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Day 1-10 GFS deterministic run....that gets us through the end of this month. As noted, the last third of this month would see a pattern change. There it is. Now, we will see if it verifies. On 1/21/2023 at 12:02 PM, Carvers Gap said: That might be a response to the SSW....it is a bit quick, but nature doesn’t follow my rules! LOL. That is how it looks. And sadly, that is a very minimal drop in temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Ensembles, ensembles, ensembles when talking February. The GFS deterministic run at this range is like a single member of the GEFS at this range. It may show us certain trends, but might want to take a look at the ensembles before being swayed. So true! Ensembles have been generally cooler than the deterministic. Can't live run to run on deterministics alone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Ensembles, ensembles, ensembles when talking February. The GFS deterministic run at this range is like a single member of the GEFS at this range. It may show us certain trends, but might want to take a look at the ensembles before being swayed. Oh I totally agree on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Looks like some big overrunning potential still showing up on the GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Yep them overrunning events can sneak up on you sometimes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 I’m getting a incredible grapple shower in E Knox Co. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Ah, forget about snow days, schools will be getting some flood days instead. Reminds me of February a few years ago, forget which one, but it was rain, rain, rain. We actually had back to back February floods. 2018 and 19. In 18’ I had around 13” of rain in 3 days. 19’ I had 14” but it was over 5-6 days. In 18 I actually packed a bag for me and my son and was ready to go when it finally stopped. Water was coming up and over my only exit out of my subdivision. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 A dusting here this morning with steady light snow. just 200 yards to my east and onward it is pouring. apparently projectory upslope. Cams in Big stone gap and Norton show what looks like 1-2 inches and snow rather heavy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: A dusting here this morning with steady light snow. just 200 yards to my east and onward it is pouring. apparently projectory upslope. Cams in Big stone gap and Norton show what looks like 1-2 inches and snow rather heavy. Here's a link. scroll down to cams. Tri-Cities Cameras | News, Weather, Sports, Breaking News | WCYB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2023 Author Share Posted January 23, 2023 Definitely have had some snow showers and flurries in Kingsport at lower elevations. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 I saw a single flake of dandruff this morning while walking the dogs. Guess I can't complain too much about that given how stark this winter has been so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Happy Hour coming in with a gross ice storm around the 1st-2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 I think safe to say that something is going to happen next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Uh.. wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 hour ago, fountainguy97 said: Uh.. wow Between the LR fantasy ice storms and the very real wind event this week....my lights are flickering. That would knock out power in some communities in NE TN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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