Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 Just got back from Knoxville. The 18z GFS pretty much doubled down. Wow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 Interesting to see the 18z GEFS remove the SER at the end of its run. Probably is a blip, but I have seen the EPS try to remove it a couple of times this weeks. I don't think this happens, but I do ask this question sometimes? Once the trough goes into the East, is it going to be tough to move? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 And the 12z Euro control did the same thing as the 18z GEFS. It popped a southwest ridge at range. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Oh man let things come together! ☃️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 2 hours ago, PowellVolz said: Maybe it’s me but our “warm ups” this season haven’t been all that warm IMO. We have had a few days in the 60’s, one or two in the 70’s but it seems like most of our temps have been 45-55 and cloudy. Might be me though. . Same here in January. Multiple days in the upper 40s to low 50s with misty/foggy weather even during the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 I've been following this strat warming for a few weeks now. I will be shocked if we don't get a big plunge of cold air with that sometime in February heading southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 KW passing through the east has put a hurting on the ENSO in the east,CFS continues to show the the MJO getting stronger into Africa and moving into the WP,seems like a poop pattern if its right will happen again around Mid Feb or sooner 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Well 3 minor chances this week. Better than nothing! 1st event Monday will be border mountains only. Probably not a lot of accumulation. 2nd event could be a more prolonged NW event and could get more areas involved. Still in the 1-3" range. 3rd event is a sneaky clipper on the heels of event 2. Several GEFS members have a nice little thumping of snow on already frozen ground. Something the first two don't have. All in all nothing major but atleast something to snack on! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Disclaimer: the following has noting to do with the next couple of weeks. With regards to the strat stuff, EasternLI had a good post in the NY subforum this AM: 15 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Since I last posted on the stratosphere. Cross guidance trends have been unfavorable for getting it done. There's still warming ahead, but it looks increasingly clear to me like it will fall short of what we would need. Here's the latest gefs trends illustrating this. So what could that most likely mean. There's still some warming modeled. Here's the cross section of the 00z gfs as a guide. Note the strong winds high up in the stratosphere. Associated with the stronger than normal SPV currently. With weakening winds arriving at the time of the warming. Notice how the warming weakens the winds higher up, but this is pushing down the stronger wind into the troposphere. But the warming isn't going to be enough to finish the job. So what are we left with. I'd say most likely that means no help from this. As it actually acts to strengthen the vortex in the troposphere instead (+AO) by pushing the stronger winds down from above. With the SPV regaining strength again following this as hinted on latest guidance. Could happen later I suppose, but I really rather not by then as the hour is getting extremely late. Hopefully this is at least a little helpful for those more curious about the nuance of it. Ideally, a stronger event would push the reversal of winds down through the atmosphere into the troposphere. Which is how the arctic blocking can emerge. That looks very unlikely today. You can actually see what EasternLI is talking about on the 3D maps: The top of the vortex definitely gets smaller and slows some, but the bottom seems to keep chugging along. I don't necessarily think that this means a huge change for better or worse though. 1. Even if we had a major top down SSWE, it would take until the end of Feb at this point to see real impacts in the Eastern US IMO. So we were still looking at a couple weeks of an unfavorable pattern in mid Feb. 2. A weakened SPV shouldn't impact the meta-pattern we've been in since fall, the 2.5 weeks of unfavorable pattern, then a week to a week and a half of better chances. I'd almost go so far as to say that when the pattern shifts again at the end of Feb. we will have better chances than with the one we're in or heading for now over thee next week and a half or so. Remember October? The cold snap we got for a week that month was stout. The one at the end of November, ehh, not so much. December? We all remember that one. Hopefully everyone has their water back by now. The one this month? Certainly the GFS has hinted that a major cold snap is possible, but. I suspect it will be more muted like that of November. As the wavelengths shorten and as the MJO makes it slow pass back towards the more favorable phases toward the end of February, I'm really interested to see what we end up with by Feb 25th or so. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 Winter Storm Watch posted for the TN mountains. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 We are going to have to watch the d7-12 timeframe for an overrunning event. I think that tends to favor west TN, but that boundary is in question(meaning how far SE does it go?). The 12z GFS yesterday had one extreme, but the 6z GFS still tries to push that air into the forum area, especially western areas. The 6z GEFS is not warm, and neither is the 0z Canadian ensemble during the d10-15 range(and that is a change for the GEFS). The EPS is warmer. I think the cold heads into the Mountain West and pushes eastward until the warm phases of the MJO take hold. Interesting LR trends for sure. The full run, 6z GEFS snow mean is 6-7" of snow for NE TN, and that has normally been a decent sign of impending winter weather here during the next couple of weeks. Time will tell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 And one note, there are times the SSW stuff can have an immediate impact on the troposphere, especially with blocking. Can the SSW override the impending MJO likely tour of warm phases? Unlikely, but who knows. Feb is a notoriously tricky month for modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 It is worth noting that modeling is ever so slightly pushing back the Feb warm-up. Take a look at the 0z Euro control......... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Taking the kiddos to southern IL Wednesday. Does anyone from that area know of any good sledding hills/destinations? Thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 After the GFS's lascivious indulgence yesterday at 12z, the sinner repents and gives us our favorite February pattern! I know it is only one run, but if the trough dumps out west and fights the SE ridge, we may end up on the boundary. That is a very realistic and possible progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: After the GFS's lascivious indulgence yesterday at 12z, the sinner repents and gives us our favorite February pattern! I know it is only one run, but if the trough dumps out west and fights the SE ridge, we may end up on the boundary. That is a very realistic and possible progression. Lol at least yall will make up for such a dry Fall this way. At least one positive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 15 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Lol at least yall will make up for such a dry Fall this way. At least one positive. That run ended up with some 12+ inch lollipops of qpf over the Frozen Head mts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 The cold at the end of the CMC run...whoa. If it manages to find its way eastward, lookout. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 Just to add to that....it actually is heading eastward on the 12z CMC, and that isn't the only model to have had that look during that timeframe. There is real model disagreement on whether it gets east of the Mississippi. However, what is lurking around Feb 1st is potentially the coldest air of the season for some locations in the Lower 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Same here in January. Multiple days in the upper 40s to low 50s with misty/foggy weather even during the day. Outside a couple of weeks, today sums up our 22’/23’ winter. It’s 45 and drizzle . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 I am naturally a positive person, but it seems like our area is being teased a lot only for things to back off closer in time. East Tennessee higher elevations may get in on these next 2 systems a little. But west and middle just can’t seem to hit the right combo so far, maybe if I step away from model watching for a while things will change. Plenty of time but I would like to at least get 1 decent system in the next 10-15 days. If it comes down to waiting on March it gets even more iffy usually and hard to pull off a good week or 10 day pattern of winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 The 12z GEFS after Feb 1 doesn't even look like the same model when compared to 12z yesterday...it is MUCH colder. Both the GEPS and GEFS seems to be picking up on an unforeseen cold shot right after Feb 1. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 The February thread is live. I will have d10+ discussion there. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Downsloping anyone? It’s probably 20 degrees warmer in Gatlinburg than Knoxville. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 6 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Disclaimer: the following has noting to do with the next couple of weeks. With regards to the strat stuff, EasternLI had a good post in the NY subforum this AM: You can actually see what EasternLI is talking about on the 3D maps: The top of the vortex definitely gets smaller and slows some, but the bottom seems to keep chugging along. I don't necessarily think that this means a huge change for better or worse though. 1. Even if we had a major top down SSWE, it would take until the end of Feb at this point to see real impacts in the Eastern US IMO. So we were still looking at a couple weeks of an unfavorable pattern in mid Feb. 2. A weakened SPV shouldn't impact the meta-pattern we've been in since fall, the 2.5 weeks of unfavorable pattern, then a week to a week and a half of better chances. I'd almost go so far as to say that when the pattern shifts again at the end of Feb. we will have better chances than with the one we're in or heading for now over thee next week and a half or so. Remember October? The cold snap we got for a week that month was stout. The one at the end of November, ehh, not so much. December? We all remember that one. Hopefully everyone has their water back by now. The one this month? Certainly the GFS has hinted that a major cold snap is possible, but. I suspect it will be more muted like that of November. As the wavelengths shorten and as the MJO makes it slow pass back towards the more favorable phases toward the end of February, I'm really interested to see what we end up with by Feb 25th or so. Tomer Burg on twitter says the GFS/GEFS has had data issues into the Polar Vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Tomer Burg on twitter says the GFS/GEFS has had data issues into the Polar Vortex I think Polarwx is his personal website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I think Polarwx is his personal website. Looks like we are seeing the winds decelerate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 minute ago, jaxjagman said: Looks like we are seeing the winds decelerate To an extent anyways,no SSW right yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: After the GFS's lascivious indulgence yesterday at 12z, the sinner repents and gives us our favorite February pattern! I know it is only one run, but if the trough dumps out west and fights the SE ridge, we may end up on the boundary. That is a very realistic and possible progression. Ah, forget about snow days, schools will be getting some flood days instead. Reminds me of February a few years ago, forget which one, but it was rain, rain, rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: To an extent anyways,no SSW right yet I think it is definitely decelerating and weakening and looks to weaken quite a bit more: I guess though instead of splitting it as waves break, those waves that bring the warming are being reflected back down across the north pole into Canada. I really wish there was some 3D way to visualize not just the SPV but how a wave would attack the SPV and then be shunted back down to drive the pattern over N America. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now