BlunderStorm Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 33 minutes ago, matt9697 said: Things that make you go, hmm Hmm, indeed. That's a decent subset, implying good fortune. Might be looking good mid-feb with la nina if the SSW pans out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 Great look at 162 on the 12z gfs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 Here come the PV on the 12z GFS...this should be fun. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 This is more like it. No idea idea if this continues or if the GFS has lost a few screws, but yeah. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 23 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Great look at 162 on the 12z gfs. Yep! Taken verbatim, that's WWA criteria for northern middle TN but barely. The gradient is really steep on the SE side of the transition zone. Upper plateau looks to be sitting better on the GFS compared to the 0z Euro. Trying to figure out if I chase to Mount Vernon or Evansville next Wednesday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 And now we know why the GEFD snow mean was honking at 6z. Similar look on the cmc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 One heck of a GFS clown run so far 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 Just now, *Flash* said: Yep! Taken verbatim, that's WWA criteria for northern middle TN but barely. The gradient is really steep on the SE side of the transition zone. Upper plateau looks to be sitting better on the GFS compared to the 0z Euro. Trying to figure out if I chase to Mount Vernon or Evansville next Wednesday. What comes after that is just crazy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Just now, Carvers Gap said: What comes after that is just crazy. Snow in New Orleans? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 My lights are flickering as I look at this run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Just now, Carvers Gap said: My lights are flickering as I look at this run. Yeah this run is much better than the overnight runs in my opinion. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Just now, Met1985 said: Yeah this run is much better than the overnight runs in my opinion. Will it last though? Is it in realm of possibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: My lights are flickering as I look at this run. What lights from Pensacola to Atlanta lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 10 minutes ago, matt9697 said: Will it last though? Is it in realm of possibility? There is something lurking in that time range. The CMC has a big cold dump which is similar but the run stops. Can the cold get this far? That is the question. The wavelengths and cold air combo is a good one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 10 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: What lights from Pensacola to Atlanta lol Yeah, no kidding. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 That might be a response to the SSW....it is a bit quick, but nature doesn’t follow my rules! LOL. That is how it looks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 25 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah this run is much better than the overnight runs in my opinion. That run keeps nashville below 32 for days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 The GFS has definitely lost all its screws. Tonight it will be the complete opposite. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 16 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: The GFS has definitely lost all its screws. Tonight it will be the complete opposite. It’s Saturday so happy hour started at noon. Half price well drinks until 18z! 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 The crazy thing, the 12z GFS has total support from the 12z Canadian ensemble. I think we see very cold air after the 27th. Modeling has been adamant about this for several weeks. Can it cross the Plateau? Open for debate. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: It’s Saturday so happy hour started at noon. Half price well drinks until 18z! True that. I always preface my post to friends with...but this is the GFS. LOL Thar cold shot is on most models. Some hold it in the west. Some get it to the Apps. This GFS run got it to the coast. The CMC had it, but it ran out of time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 I'll probably eat this at 18z, but the past couple of iterations of the GFS seem to do well at guestimating timing for big HPs dropping down the lee of the Rockies. It's OP runs have had them pretty consistently for a few cycles now. I think some cold is def. dropping down, just have to hope it makes it east. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 So, the 12z Euro control does something similar to the GFS. It’s ensemble is pretty meh. Not sure an ensemble would catch an extreme run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 There is a likely warmup coming after the 5th. The really question I have is do we do the same thing that we did in December - go very cold and then go warm? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 500mb patterns are fairly similar but temps are all over the place on ensembles for our forum area d7+. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: There is a likely warmup coming after the 5th. The really question I have is do we do the same thing that we did in December - go very cold and then go warm? Not going to lie. I hope that warmup is the 3rd-5th. My daughter has a soccer showcase tournament in Gatlinburg that weekend. Wx like today would be much appreciated! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Happy hour GFS sobered up, but at least it has a nice cross polar flow in the long range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Happy hour GFS sobered up, but at least it has a nice cross polar flow in the long range. Drinks are back to full price now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Not going to lie. I hope that warmup is the 3rd-5th. My daughter has a soccer showcase tournament in Gatlinburg that weekend. Wx like today would be much appreciated! I played golf today, it was beautiful and almost no wind. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 There is a likely warmup coming after the 5th. The really question I have is do we do the same thing that we did in December - go very cold and then go warm?Maybe it’s me but our “warm ups” this season haven’t been all that warm IMO. We have had a few days in the 60’s, one or two in the 70’s but it seems like most of our temps have been 45-55 and cloudy. Might be me though. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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