Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2023 Author Share Posted January 20, 2023 18z GEFS. This is possibly a one-off since there was a big storm at the end of the GFS...but this is a nice ensemble mean for NE TN. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2023 Author Share Posted January 20, 2023 Not much to add to yesterday evening's discussion. Other than Pivotal, it does look like American modeling is/was having trouble propagating to other websites this morning. A couple of sites that I use were missing large chunks of 0z and 6z runs or was just missing it altogether. That said, the CPC MJO site does support a warm-up after the 5th as the MJO is shown to travel through the warmer phases(low amplitude for now) on several models. Some models just go COD in and around phase 3. So, the Euro Weeklies do look correct in its depiction for February - false spring followed by more winter to end that month. It does look to me like Nino climatology and/or the SSW is going to be felt during the last week of Feb and early March. I should also note that with changing wavelengths, February is not an easy month to forecast. Take a look at the last two GFS runs, and you will see some excellent passes by that model(w/ room to trend nor west). But I am a little wary this morning of modeling as American modeling has taken its time loading onto my normal sites. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2023 Author Share Posted January 20, 2023 One last note, and I will be off the forum for some time today, is that there does appear to be a northwest flow and/or clipper event following the second storm. The cold air looks to be in place from Jan27th to ~5th. Within that northwest flow, it does appear some light snow showers are embedded w/ details to be worked out later. NE TN and the northern border counties of TN and southern KY would stand the best chance w/ those(if they don't trend northward which is common). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Thanks, Carver. Still hoping the 24-26th system brings some fun and games for N/NW portions of our forum. Per the latest Euro, I'm still not giving up hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Not liking the noon run of the GFS hopefully it is wrong, do not want any ice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 These two storms washed out quickly but the pattern after is not the worst I've seen. I think we are going to battle La Nina background state pretty hard. We just have to get lucky with an ideally timed storm. This January is a certified torch running 8 degrees above my norm for Jan. Interesting how some winters the enso state is hardly felt in the pattern and then others it washes out everything. This year la Nina has fully taken over the US pattern. The DJF averages will probably come out pretty close to the typical la nina composites. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 9 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: These two storms washed out quickly but the pattern after is not the worst I've seen. I think we are going to battle La Nina background state pretty hard. We just have to get lucky with an ideally timed storm. This January is a certified torch running 8 degrees above my norm for Jan. Exactly. It definitely has been a mild Month. If something drastic doesn't happen pretty soon, the Winter will go down as another mild one. What really gets to me sometimes is when we have an overall mild winter but, have an extreme cold shot, folks say what a bad Winter it was . The balance can be 3 -4 degrees above average and they still do that. Lol. My take is, the SSW will possibly bring us a decent period of Winter weather Mid Feb till possibly mid March and that may balance the mild to near Normal. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 hour ago, fountainguy97 said: These two storms washed out quickly but the pattern after is not the worst I've seen. I think we are going to battle La Nina background state pretty hard. We just have to get lucky with an ideally timed storm. This January is a certified torch running 8 degrees above my norm for Jan. Interesting how some winters the enso state is hardly felt in the pattern and then others it washes out everything. This year la Nina has fully taken over the US pattern. The DJF averages will probably come out pretty close to the typical la nina composites. We've actually not been in a La Nina pattern at all in January. We've been in a Super Nino pattern. Which is the absolute worst thing for winter weather here most of the time. The relentless extended pac jet firehose is why California has been snowed under and swamped all the way into Southern Cal. That's just classic Nino. When you see that happening we are always in for blah weather. Places that normally freeze in La Nina, like Montana and the Dakotas are all well AN for January. Great Falls Montana has been seeing highs in the mid-50s and are running 10+ right now. Rapid City, SD is +9. Bismark ND is AN for January. It looks like that pattern is finally set to end but we are still in a cutter/even if it doesn't cut there's not cold pattern. Which also reminds me of El Nino weather from a few years ago when we kept getting winter rain storms with Miller A type tracks. The only thing not really happening on the typical El Nino map below in January is we are slightly AN on precip so far. But in strong Nino's I think AN precip is more common. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 On 1/13/2023 at 6:00 PM, jaxjagman said: If the Euro is right we could get pretty cold for a spell into the last week of Jan Nice Rex block around the GOA,Question should be the NAO and what the blocking does after as the Euro has some nice HP up around the N/Plains the end of that run 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Pattern look wash rinse and repeat,been like this the past couple months it seems,should trun cold the end of the month,warm up for a few days then turn cold again shorlty after..jmho 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 33 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Pattern look wash rinse and repeat,been like this the past couple months it seems,should trun cold the end of the month,warm up for a few days then turn cold again shorlty after..jmho Yeah the pattern change I just don't see at this point. My opinion is we don't see a true pattern change until March then that will screw up Spring. This is just a repeating pattern from September in my opinion. Not bad but not great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2023 Author Share Posted January 20, 2023 Definitely there is a pattern change at hand.....the big block over HB is about to be gone. The question is whether the output at the mid latitudes is much different. The low in the Aleutians will be replaced by a pesky high which is very Nina like, and has been present during the last two winters(reference the big red ball of fire conversations). That said, temps should be seasonal to below for most days during the next two weeks. Modeling appears to have done well with this window, but was too extreme in its early looks. We will certainly have a day or two AN. Whether we can score another storm is still up for debate - before the MJO likely rotates into warm phases in a couple of weeks. I do see ample potential for yet another upslope event right after storm two. I think the best window for a winter storm will be from Jan28 to roughly Feb 5th(that window could extend a day or two). I certainly concur that cold temps are coming later in Feb and into March unfortunately. Again, with shortening wavelengths, the variability of the upcoming pattern is likely high. Not all pattern changes are net cold, but a pattern change is incoming. Also, the NAO is absolutely difficult to predict with any accuracy. It has been on one model run only to be absent on the next. If it fires....that would again balance a terrible Pacific set-up. As for Nina or Nino characteristics...the atmosphere appears to be showing both. The lack of storms along the eastern seaboard is 100% Nina climatology. Cutter city is Jan-Feb Nina climatology. Now, what is open for hot debate is whether that is about to change. If we begin to see a ton of rainy, drizzly days with highs in the 50s with no en in sight...welcome to Super El Nino. I do think the jet extension a couple of weeks ago was El Nino related. However, the heavy snows in the Mountain West is classic La Nina. Place like Montana and Wyoming see much less snow during Nino winters. They had very bad drought conditions during the 90s due to the excessive number of Nino conditions. The cold spring look on the Euro Weeklies is El Nino. So, it appears the transition has begun. And trust me on this, we don't want Nina climatology to continue into February or it is gonna be torch city. So, I welcome that change if it is indeed at hand. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 45 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah the pattern change I just don't see at this point. My opinion is we don't see a true pattern change until March then that will screw up Spring. This is just a repeating pattern from September in my opinion. Not bad but not great. I know,it could totally screw up severe spring 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Question for folks more knowledgeable than me, what effects do we expect to see from this ssw have on our weather 2-3 weeks down the road? I know they can lend different results or impacts. I guess I am wondering if it will have a major impact one way or the other. Just curious on thoughts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Yeah the jet extension was brutal at times the last few weeks coming off Asia into NA,but we are now seemingly going back into a more Nina,with a active S/Jet.thats not that bad if you can get things to time right 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2023 Author Share Posted January 20, 2023 21 minutes ago, snowmaker said: Question for folks more knowledgeable than me, what effects do we expect to see from this ssw have on our weather 2-3 weeks down the road? I know they can lend different results or impacts. I guess I am wondering if it will have a major impact one way or the other. Just curious on thoughts. So....if placing bets, go with Asia. If it goes to NA, go West. When we do feel the effects along the East Coast, it is often extreme. I would suspect the cold at the end of Feb is related. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Might be wishcasting,but the big HP in the Upper plains if its further to the SE than being shown we could possibly see see a phase and something nicer than being shown,but we know how if works for us..lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Of course that HP might not be there tomorrow 240h out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 55 minutes ago, snowmaker said: Question for folks more knowledgeable than me, what effects do we expect to see from this ssw have on our weather 2-3 weeks down the road? I know they can lend different results or impacts. I guess I am wondering if it will have a major impact one way or the other. Just curious on thoughts. They sometimes help us irt an eastern trough and cold but, not always. Usually, once it's effects begin affecting the Atmosphere it warms up around here as heights tend to pump and many times lend to a -NAO. The downstream eastern trough is usually as Carver mentioned, 2 to 3 weeks. A rather promising study Larry(Gawx) in the SE Forum did shows that pretty much all late January onward SSW's resulted in a rather sustained period of cold and wintry Weather 10-20 days afterward. The Cold period lasted 2-4 weeks ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Definitely there is a pattern change at hand.....the big block over HB is about to be gone. The question is whether the output at the mid latitudes is much different. The low in the Aleutians will be replaced by a pesky high which is very Nina like, and has been present during the last two winters(reference the big red ball of fire conversations). That said, temps should be seasonal to below for most days during the next two weeks. Modeling appears to have done well with this window, but was too extreme in its early looks. We will certainly have a day or two AN. Whether we can score another storm is still up for debate - before the MJO likely rotates into warm phases in a couple of weeks. I do see ample potential for yet another upslope event right after storm two. I think the best window for a winter storm will be from Jan28 to roughly Feb 5th(that window could extend a day or two). I certainly concur that cold temps are coming later in Feb and into March unfortunately. Again, with shortening wavelengths, the variability of the upcoming pattern is likely high. Not all pattern changes are net cold, but a pattern change is incoming. Also, the NAO is absolutely difficult to predict with any accuracy. It has been on one model run only to be absent on the next. If it fires....that would again balance a terrible Pacific set-up. As for Nina or Nino characteristics...the atmosphere appears to be showing both. The lack of storms along the eastern seaboard is 100% Nina climatology. Cutter city is Jan-Feb Nina climatology. Now, what is open for hot debate is whether that is about to change. If we begin to see a ton of rainy, drizzly days with highs in the 50s with no en in sight...welcome to Super El Nino. I do think the jet extension a couple of weeks ago was El Nino related. However, the heavy snows in the Mountain West is classic La Nina. Place like Montana and Wyoming see much less snow during Nino winters. They had very bad drought conditions during the 90s due to the excessive number of Nino conditions. The cold spring look on the Euro Weeklies is El Nino. So, it appears the transition has begun. And trust me on this, we don't want Nina climatology to continue into February or it is gonna be torch city. So, I welcome that change if it is indeed at hand. That Nino pattern may fall somewhat inline with the late SSW typical affect. If so, we'll some some late wintry weather. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2023 Author Share Posted January 20, 2023 The thing a about Niña and the Mountain West is to look at snowfall. They are way above normal. The likely aren’t that cold this month since the cold emptied itself in December. I suspect their December is going to even out January or get close to it. I watch that area super closely. Many areas have had their best winter in a long time in regards to snow. That is classic Niña climatology. Nino winters are often BN for water in Montana and Wyoming. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 30 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The thing a about Niña and the Mountain West is to look at snowfall. They are way above normal. The likely aren’t that cold this month since the cold emptied itself in December. I suspect their December is going to even out January or get close to it. I watch that area super closely. Many areas have had their best winter in a long time in regards to snow. That is classic Niña climatology. Nino winters are often BN for water in Montana and Wyoming. I can attest firsthand that Montana and Wyoming are getting hammered this winter. We just got back from skiing out there. Everywhere we went from Bozeman to W Yellowstone, there was snow on the ground. In W Yellowstone, there was at least 5ft. With drifts even higher than that! It was cold by our standards (highs in the teens and 20’s and single digits and subzero for lows) but for high elevation out there, that is warm. The thing is, at W Yellowstone, the low temp on the car registered -14F, and that was just a random winter morning. However, that’s the coldest temp without windchill I’ve ever experienced! Previously I’d seen -10F, but that was many years ago. I wish I could have stayed even longer, we had 7in of snow during the last week while we were there. They were saying it’s the best winter they’ve had in quite some time. You know when people from Montana are saying they’re having a good snowy winter, then it must be good! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Jed33 said: I can attest firsthand that Montana and Wyoming are getting hammered this winter. We just got back from skiing out there. Everywhere we went from Bozeman to W Yellowstone, there was snow on the ground. In W Yellowstone, there was at least 5ft. With drifts even higher than that! It was cold by our standards (highs in the teens and 20’s and single digits and subzero for lows) but for high elevation out there, that is warm. The thing is, at W Yellowstone, the low temp on the car registered -14F, and that was just a random winter morning. However, that’s the coldest temp without windchill I’ve ever experienced! Previously I’d seen -10F, but that was many years ago. I wish I could have stayed even longer, we had 7in of snow during the last week while we were there. They were saying it’s the best winter they’ve had in quite some time. You know when people from Montana are saying they’re having a good snowy winter, then it must be good! I was in West Yellowstone in early June, 5 years ago. It’s so beautiful there. Even with the long days during that time of year, it was around 30 in the morning and 60s in the afternoon. They have great radiational cooling conditions. All-time record low is -66. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 2 hours ago, Jed33 said: I can attest firsthand that Montana and Wyoming are getting hammered this winter. We just got back from skiing out there. Everywhere we went from Bozeman to W Yellowstone, there was snow on the ground. In W Yellowstone, there was at least 5ft. With drifts even higher than that! It was cold by our standards (highs in the teens and 20’s and single digits and subzero for lows) but for high elevation out there, that is warm. The thing is, at W Yellowstone, the low temp on the car registered -14F, and that was just a random winter morning. However, that’s the coldest temp without windchill I’ve ever experienced! Previously I’d seen -10F, but that was many years ago. I wish I could have stayed even longer, we had 7in of snow during the last week while we were there. They were saying it’s the best winter they’ve had in quite some time. You know when people from Montana are saying they’re having a good snowy winter, then it must be good! On June 14th one year, they had to close the park due to snow. We had 5" of snow in West Yell. It came in like a wall which was a black cloud. They opened one of the ski slopes for a day as they had a foot at higher elevations. We got into the park later that day and fish were rising everywhere. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 5 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: That Nino pattern may fall somewhat inline with the late SSW typical affect. If so, we'll some some late wintry weather. This is what I was thinking about if we do transition toward Nino at the same time of feeling effects of SSW. I know things with the ssw can go the other direction but that combo could be good. But I hope whatever winter weather we get that by the first of April we break warm. I love winter and even a great march snowstorm but as March ends I am ready for spring. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Still hoping for a little dusting at elevation on the plateau this Monday, at least this time it's been cold going into the event so maybe more will stick. Little more following that as well out to the 27th Lots of potential.... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 2 hours ago, Knoxtron said: Still hoping for a little dusting at elevation on the plateau this Monday, at least this time it's been cold going into the event so maybe more will stick. Little more following that as well out to the 27th Lots of potential.... Mercy. Talk about a good catch. I am out of pocket again today. I did grab the 6z GEFS snow mean after seeing those looks that you posted. Yeah, that is a good gradient on the ensemble right at the end of the month. Might be easily the best snow ensemble of the season. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 It is noteworthy that the 6z GEFS is quite cold this morning. Warm-up is likely mid Feb, but that is a really good look on a model with a slight warm bias d10+. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Things that make you go, hmm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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