Carvers Gap Posted January 18, 2023 Author Share Posted January 18, 2023 Super fast and I gotta go. The 12z GEFS and GEPS are honking re: the second system. Modeling may have a warm nose in the eastern valley and may not. However, both have lows which either redevelop SE of us or just east. That is usually a good sign for someone in the forum area. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18, 2023 Author Share Posted January 18, 2023 The GFS has a good pass w/ system one. The problem is that it is in the middle of the day. The second system is at night. If it was the olden days...we would say the Euro is wrapped up too tight...but honestly both the GFS and Euro are bouncing around right now that I can't even put our once reliable biases into play! Anyway, lots to look at. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18, 2023 Author Share Posted January 18, 2023 Actually, the 12z EPS had a decent pass with system one in addition to the OP. About half the slp were clustered just northwest of Savannah. The GFS has trended SE w/ system one (off the top of my head) since 0z where everything was a cutter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18, 2023 Author Share Posted January 18, 2023 You know in all of this storm tracking...I failed to look at temps. The GFS, Euro, and CMC are all showing VERY cold temps between d8-10. I just happened by those temps on a driveby check of the Euro control. I then went back and looked at the operational runs, and sure enough. The 12z Euro control, operational, and CMC now show the potential for single digits or below zero temps around the 27th or just after, especially the control and the CMC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18, 2023 Author Share Posted January 18, 2023 How crazy would it be to start the with highs in the low to mid 70s, only to end the month below zero or in single digits. That is one wild ridge. With an active STJ, the front in which that potential cold air rides will need to be watched for cyclogenesis which forms if it hits the GOM. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 I feel like I've seen this Day 10 CMC Mean look somewhere before... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Super fast and I gotta go. The 12z GEFS and GEPS are honking re: the second system. Modeling may have a warm nose in the eastern valley and may not. However, both have lows which either redevelop SE of us or just east. That is usually a good sign for someone in the forum area. Yeah, verbatim that's some heavy snow for at least parts of the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Nice happy hour GFS run for the ever popular day 10 window. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Nice happy hour GFS run for the ever popular day 10 window. Real nice look. Great storm track with the classic low on the gulf coast to atlantic coast track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Pretty similar at the surface to some of the looks at range we had for the December PV visit: December GFS happy hour run at range Current happy hour GFS run at range: 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Pretty similar at the surface to some of the looks at range we had for the December PV visit: December GFS happy hour run at range Current happy hour GFS run at range: Good stuff! I'm feeling more confident about this one than I ever did with December mirage. Hope your Relatives are doing better man . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2023 Author Share Posted January 19, 2023 The real wild card other than SSW stuff(and maybe they are connected), is the NAO is starting to fire in LR model runs. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The real wild card other than SSW stuff(and maybe they are connected), is the NAO is starting to fire in LR model runs. Yep. Let's hope it pays dividends this time. I have a feeling it will. If a 50-50 materializes I'll bank on it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 While we wait for our Snow, we can watch the drama in Truckee California. They have several feet on the ground and another round is just beginning. I watch this Cam pretty often. http://tahoetopia.com/webcam/downtown-truckee 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Nice happy hour GFS run for the ever popular day 10 window. Yeah…..one of those facebook weather goobers is already honking the horn. And of course……the faithful followers and their moronic comments are always fun to read (insert eye roll). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Beautiful surface track on the 22-23 storm: If only we had that track in January and there was some cold air around lol. <sarcasm intended> 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2023 Author Share Posted January 19, 2023 So, the big cutter for storm one is now being suppressed by modeling with 72 hours to go. It originally was forecast to go into Illinois and Indiana by the GFS and CMC. That really makes me wonder if the second system will cut. Time of day is the issue w/ storm one. If it would be mostly at night, I think we would see wet, heavy snow above 1500'. Fighting off marginal temps w/ daytime heating is tougher in later January for the valleys. Still, all three global ensembles have now switched to a weak Miller A. If we get snow from that system, it will have to crank or arrive at night. If it doesn't cut, it is a good lesson that this pattern is going to press. I would not be surprised to see the mountains get snow with storm one yet again. I do hold out hope that now that modeling has a weak Miller A that maybe it underestimated the strength, and is just now dialing in that system. In the LR, the 0z GEFS is much colder than from a couple of days ago. Again, when it flips colder it is worth noting. The Euro still has the system on the 25th for west TN. The Euro, which was the most suppressed for the 22nd/23rd system, was the only system that suppressed for it, and even it was possibly not suppressed enough as it had an apps runner. For now, it appears the GFS was was to amped up. They system on the 25th will arrive for west TN during overnight hours. I think we have a window from Jan 23rd to roughly Feb5th. After that, it gets murky. Does the NAO develop? Does the MJO loop back into colder phases? I do feel if we can get a third system in this pattern, that has a very good chance of being snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 22 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: So, the big cutter for storm one is now being suppressed by modeling with 72 hours to go. It originally was forecast to go into Illinois and Indiana by the GFS and CMC. That really makes me wonder if the second system will cut. Time of day is the issue w/ storm one. If it would be mostly at night, I think we would see wet, heavy snow above 1500'. Fighting off marginal temps w/ daytime heating is tougher in later January for the valleys. Still, all three global ensembles have now switched to a weak Miller A. If we get snow from that system, it will have to crank or arrive at night. If it doesn't cut, it is a good lesson that this pattern is going to press. I would not be surprised to see the mountains get snow with storm one yet again. I do hold out hope that now that modeling has a weak Miller A that maybe it underestimated the strength, and is just now dialing in that system. In the LR, the 0z GEFS is much colder than from a couple of days ago. Again, when it flips colder it is worth noting. The Euro still has the system on the 25th for west TN. The Euro, which was the most suppressed for the 22nd/23rd system, was the only system that suppressed for it, and even it was possibly not suppressed enough as it had an apps runner. For now, it appears the GFS was was to amped up. They system on the 25th will arrive for west TN during overnight hours. I think we have a window from Jan 23rd to roughly Feb5th. After that, it gets murky. Does the NAO develop? Does the MJO loop back into colder phases? I do feel if we can get a third system in this pattern, that has a very good chance of being snow. Meh, nothing personal but thats all I can really muster right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 The 6z GFS has the storm from the 18z (Jan 29), just a bit further east. It was gone on the 0z run. Another period to watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Looks like cutter to possibly snow showery/clipper type weather coming on the GFS. A few years ago I got to like 11 inches of snow an inch at a time before a nice event happened. I don't remember the year right now but this one might be similar. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2023 Author Share Posted January 19, 2023 Honestly, that is a good looking run of the 12z GFS. As @tnweathernutoften likes to say, a cutter is not terrible if it sets the boundary w/ the next storm. Honestly, we probably wanted that first storm to be a cutter. But if the second storm cuts, it sets the boundary for the next storm provided there isn't too much spacing. Confidence is growing that we will see some measurable snow in the Jan 23-Feb5 timeframe. It may not be a big storm, but a clipper or snow shower event will do the trick, especially since the cold will be in place. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2023 Author Share Posted January 19, 2023 I wouldn't be shocked to see wrap around snow(from an actual inland runner) on Sunday night or Monday AM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2023 Author Share Posted January 19, 2023 I think Memphis is sitting in a good spot for storm 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2023 Author Share Posted January 19, 2023 The real risk is suppression right now. I know that I keep saying it, but take a look at the 12z ICON. It shoves the entire first system almost completely south of us. That is a system that was once modeled to cut through the eastern Plains and Midwest. I would not be surprised to see the system on the 25th jog southwest. The 12z GFS came back a tic east on that run. Let's see where that goes. Honestly, I am almost pulling for a cutter for storm two. That, to sound like a broken record, sets up very good confluence for us for the next shortwave. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2023 Author Share Posted January 19, 2023 12z ensemble trends at 500mb have been decent (GEPS and GEFS) so far - meaning this upcoming cold shot might not be a one-off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 It seems like the second system on the euro has started a slow trend of cutting quicker more northwest. West Tennessee pretty much out of picture on the most recent run for storm 2. Also not seeing the cold air press as much either. There is still time for change just seems like everything has been cutting into the Midwest and toward the lakes. Just hope we aren’t in a pattern of being teased by cold air coming south only to see it stall to our northwest. And then when it does come we get to much and it’s suppression. Just kind of worried We aren’t going to time things right. You would think in the next few weeks we could once anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2023 Author Share Posted January 19, 2023 Euro Weeklies synopsis: Temps: Weeks 1-2: Seasonal to BN Weeks 3: AN Week: 4 Seasonal D28-46: BN (times well with recent strat warming...) 6-10" snow mean for NE TN -NAO develops........ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2023 Author Share Posted January 19, 2023 It is the 18z NAM at range, but it has 1-3" of accumulating snow on the Plateau w/ rain changing to snow. NE TN has 0.5-1.0" of snow w/ the same system. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Good luck to you all in East Tennessee on this first system. Maybe it will work out for higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: It is the 18z NAM at range, but it has 1-3" of accumulating snow on the Plateau w/ rain changing to snow. NE TN has 0.5-1.0" of snow w/ the same system. Hopefully things trend colder and we wind up with a respectable amount although, 1-3" is in this lackluster Winter, lol. Nam did have a couple degrees warm bias right up to zero hour so, something to watch if it comes down to riding the fence Temp wise during event and it's showing just a degree or two above demarcation at critical levels. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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