Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 All areas are in play at this point w/ model tracks being all over the place. The 12z Euro has a coastal Miller A for the second storm. The GFS has a cutter into the Plains. That is a big probability cone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 12z scorecard. System one is the 22nd/23rd and system two is the 26th-ish storm. Storm 1 / Storm 2 CMC: Inland Runner Miller A...Ice NE TN / Cut...Ice NE TN GFS: Cut / Cut Euro: Apps Runner...snow upper middle TN / Coastal Miller A...big city blizzard 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 And that isn't even mentioning a likely third system(maybe 4), before we lose the pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 20 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 12z scorecard. System one is the 22nd/23rd and system two is the 26th-ish storm. Storm 1 / Storm 2 CMC: Inland Runner Miller A...Ice NE TN / Cut...Ice NE TN GFS: Cut / Cut Euro: Apps Runner...snow upper middle TN / Coastal Miller A...big city blizzard Is the CMC really reliable? Seems no wx offices ever mention it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 minute ago, Matthew70 said: Is the CMC really reliable? Seems no wx offices ever mention it. At this range, none will be reliable regarding storm track. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 With the first storm I would expect model guidance to at least start converging on some type of general idea in the next 2-3 days. We are around 6 days out from the first system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 59 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Is the CMC really reliable? Seems no wx offices ever mention it. Definitely. It is the model which identified this upcoming cold shot first. It has been really good as a long wave model in LR. It has scored better than the GFS at this range almost all winter as well as the Euro. The GFS does get much better inside of 5 days. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 minute ago, snowmaker said: With the first storm I would expect model guidance to at least start converging on some type of general idea in the next 2-3 days. We are around 6 days out from the first system. Yeah, we are a solid 6 days out right now w/ decent model spread. On a global scale, that is not much of a difference. Cutters are the default for winter, so I give mild deference to that trend. That said, eventually that boundary should sit west to east. We need HP over the top. That is really what we need here in E TN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 Just looking at the ensembles mslp positions for each storm....60% cutters and 40% coastals. And that is better than what we have had most of the winter at this range. There is a pretty good mix. Depending on which model you look at, there are clusters for coastals and cutters. I don't think we know the second storm track until the first track is known. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 I do think the boundary is excellent for system 3 and probably WAA for system 4. The very idea that we are talking about four systems after the AN temp anomaly from the past 2.5 weeks is kind of cool. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 18z ICON is an inland runner(almost to the Apps). Decent jog to the SE from 12z. Trends are all that I am looking at and slp location/tracks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 The 18z GFS was a slight nudge to the Euro camp as a lot of energy stayed south. It even popped a low over Louisiana before getting strung out. Anyone who knows me, knows I like lows over New Orleans during winter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Getting pretty close to upgrading my a SSW watch to a warning. I think it probably happens now in early Feb, but the good news is that even if it does, any impacts shouldn't interfere with the chances we've been discussion above. Probably 3 weeks until we see the effects of one and of course that depends of the type we see (displacement, split (where to the individual split vortices go?)both?) The below is an ensemble mean (GEFS): GEFS mean in fact shows a 50mb split as early as under 100 hours: I suspect that could cause some short notice EPO mischief if it can percolate down from 50 mb. Euro has a quasi split at 50 mb and also has the ridging in the EPO domain. Again though, it remains to be seen how that could potentially translate down to H5. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18, 2023 Author Share Posted January 18, 2023 38 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Getting pretty close to upgrading my a SSW watch to a warning. I think it probably happens now in early Feb, but the good news is that even if it does, any impacts shouldn't interfere with the chances we've been discussion above. Probably 3 weeks until we see the effects of one and of course that depends of the type we see (displacement, split (where to the individual split vortices go?)both?) The below is an ensemble mean (GEFS): GEFS mean in fact shows a 50mb split as early as under 100 hours: I suspect that could cause some short notice EPO mischief if it can percolate down from 50 mb. Euro has a quasi split at 50 mb and also has the ridging in the EPO domain. Again though, it remains to be seen how that could potentially translate down to H5. Goodbye spring! LOL....It wouldn't be the first time that winter came calling during March! Good stuff, Holston! Hope all is going well with your family. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Euro gave a present to you West TN folks last night: Overnight GFS strat (10 mb level) did something weird that I've never seen before: a double ridge attacking the SPV: 6z didn't have that though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18, 2023 Author Share Posted January 18, 2023 The 6z GFS is a Miller A for the second storm. If you want some whiplash, look at last night's model runs. Did the GFS and Euro just switch places? I think they did. LOL. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18, 2023 Author Share Posted January 18, 2023 In fact, the 6z GFS moved from Arkansas to Cape Hatteras at 168. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18, 2023 Author Share Posted January 18, 2023 I am definitely interested in overnight trends in the long range d10-15 as the 0z GEFS, GEPS, and EPS nearly eliminate ridging in our area after a brief ridge rolls through. I have said this prior, I will be interested to see if modeling does the reverse of what it did in late December where it tried to re-establish a trough in the LR only to have a very consistent eastern ridge build and hold. Just a thought, and spitballing only there. That said, there are two camps in the MJO department this morning for the second week of Feb - loop the MJO back through the COD after phase 3 and back to phase 7/8 per the EMON/EMOM/BOMM or take the tour per the GEFS....though the GMON does loop across the warmer COD. I tend to think this takes the warm tour, but who knows. If someone has actually looked at the Feb forecast for Indonesia and/or the IO, I would be interested to know if it is firing there. There is a school where it just stall in phase 3 or loops back in phase 3 per the Canadian LR. One parting thought on the MJO, there are some rare occurrences where it stays cold in those phases. I don't think that occurs w/ this, but overnight modeling gives me some pause there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Something of a tangent that I noticed staring at satellite imagery this AMN, but I do think it is pattern related: The first thing to notice is the the big plunge of dry air as a trough plows through the Caribbean (gold arrow). Watch it for a few loops and get a sense of how deep that is pushing toward S America. That trough is from our upslope storm as it rolled off the coast and fired up off the Gulf Stream. The real thing of interest to me though is related to the green arrow. That Caribbean trough seems to have helped squeeze off some tropical moisture from Columbia. Watch a few loops and you can see how that moisture gets picked up by the mid latitude trough over the southwest and us now being aimed at us in the TN Valley. Not sure it means a whole lot for our weather, just an interesting moisture source lol. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18, 2023 Author Share Posted January 18, 2023 The 0z CFSv2 this morning, after being warm for several runs yesterday, is back to another cold shot during early Feb. It probably is over doing it, but I think modeling is torn between warm phase MJO and looping back into cold phases. I don't have time to look at actual convection in the long range, but that looks a lot like phases 8, 1, and 2 getting recycled. It could be feedback. It may not be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Not a bad trend on GFS with the first system but temps are gross. No cold air in sight. I say its the "table setter" for the one behind. Which also is low on coolant lol. not much to hang our hats on with temps so marginal right now. We will need a nice bombing low to wrap cold air in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 11 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Not a bad trend on GFS with the first system but temps are gross. No cold air in sight. I say its the "table setter" for the one behind. Which also is low on coolant lol. not much to hang our hats on with temps so marginal right now. We will need a nice bombing low to wrap cold air in. Yea, not sure how or why there is no cold air in sight now I thought that was the big thing lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Very cold run of the Canadian. Some subzero temps back in the Valley region on there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 2 hours ago, fountainguy97 said: Not a bad trend on GFS with the first system but temps are gross. No cold air in sight. I say its the "table setter" for the one behind. Which also is low on coolant lol. not much to hang our hats on with temps so marginal right now. We will need a nice bombing low to wrap cold air in. LOL I'm stealing this. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Euro is cutting. Still has winter in the western areas but won't be surprised to see it end up cutting even further West just based on how it's going this year. Odd Nina when you can't get cold in the western areas of the forum. Of course we've been behaving like a super Nino the last few weeks instead of a Nina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 39 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: LOL I'm stealing this. I am also. Trademark? Make shirts with this phrase on it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 My yard is definitely coming alive, and the butter cups are coming up along with other things starting to Greenup in the mulch beds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 minute ago, Matthew70 said: My yard is definitely coming alive, and the butter cups are coming up along with other things starting to Greenup in the mulch beds. It looks like the coming cold may put a slowdown on that, especially if the Canadian is right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 The Euro went from off Myrtle Beach to off Monteagle in 24 hours. I believe it did that around Christmas too and then crashed back, not enough to matter for most of us, but some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18, 2023 Author Share Posted January 18, 2023 For what once was a cutter west of west TN...the system on the 22nd/23rd has moved SE a bunch. I think these systems are going to verify SE of their current spots, but I could be wrong. This system late this weekend is a good example. I am seeing essentially a storm cutting through E TN which is about 500 miles SE of where it was a few days ago. Interesting. Admittedly, I have been out of pocket today...so that is an incredibly fast observation from me, and the quality of my comment may reflect the amount of time I looked at it!!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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