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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread


Carvers Gap
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17 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Medium and LR ensembles for the GEFS and GEPS looks outstanding.  If we don't score w/ the first storm Sun/Mon, the one after is also a legit threat.  The EPS is cutting through middle TN.   That should set the boundary for the second storm.  We will know in a few.

Lots of chaos in the flow.  I think the "general" look of a cutter or two pressing the boundary further south and east is more probable than not.  As long as we have systems remaining in the flow, you'd think we'd (someone in the mid-south) luck up and hit something at some point the next 10-14 days.

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Yep, I know the operational will move around some and can’t be taken too seriously beyond 7 days but that run still cut the first 2 storms way to early for anybody  in Tennessee then the last storm stays suppressed. Just hope it isn’t a wet and warm to cold dry scenario. It would be nice for things to slow down a little as well. At least it does look like there will be some cold around at times. Maybe things come together and we don’t have a lot of swing and misses.

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5 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Lots of chaos in the flow.  I think the "general" look of a cutter or two pressing the boundary further south and east is more probable than not.  As long as we have systems remaining in the flow, you'd think we'd (someone in the mid-south) luck up and hit something at some point the next 10-14 days.

Agree.  And no way modeling has those details worked out right now.  Big storms.  Big cold.  I think the primary track is through the TN valley.  I think another (low road) track will also exist - probably second or third storm.  I will try to dig through the ensembles in a few.  With that much cold around(and that Alaskan block), a lot is on the table if the timing is right.

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3 minutes ago, snowmaker said:

Yep, I know the operational will move around some and can’t be taken too seriously beyond 7 days but that run still cut the first 2 storms way to early for anybody  in Tennessee then the last storm stays suppressed. Just hope it isn’t a wet and warm to cold dry scenario. It would be nice for things to slow down a little as well. At least it does look like there will be some cold around at times. Maybe things come together and we don’t have a lot of swing and misses.

I think modeling is just now sensing the cold.  The last run, suppression was the issue.  This run it is cutters.  Right now, we just have to wait and see where that boundary sets up.  You can really see modeling(even the Euro), with two different pieces of energy(for the same system) on the operational.  One cuts, the other goes down low.  A couple of days ago, the GFS didn't even have it cold.  I think ensembles and operationals are just now getting this in their wheelhouse.  I will roll the dice and take my chances with this upcoming pattern.

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I'll add............... with that much cold potentially coming south it won't take much to see what is shown as a cutter with all rain now morph into a system that is more frozen (espcially on the front end).  Cold air is pretty dense so if we can get it on the move, it may press much further south into coming disturbances than currently shown.  I'm just interested in the pattern on a large scale currently.  If we head where this is showing the lead time on a wintry system may not be much longer than 3-4 days.

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As shown by the GEPS and GEFS, it's moving toward a gradient pattern.  We would almost have to have a leader follower type setup where the first system drags colder air into the region for the second system to snow on us.  The only negatives are we are south of the Ohio River so gradient patterns more often than not leave us on the wrong side of the tracks.  Still, just takes one to make a memorable winter and we at least seem to be moving toward "opportunity".............  Any way you slice it, there should be plenty of moisture the next 2-3 weeks.

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Just now, Carvers Gap said:

It might be a tic northwest on second look, but was basically the same run.  Of interest, it does have a mean slp over New Orleans on the 22nd.  Get a low placement there, and someone in the forum area is getting frozen precip.

Agree, I'd take my chances on wintery for someone in the mid-south with a surface low over NO.

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Regarding the 12z EPS:

The best look is the system on the 26th which follows.  The 12z EPS definitely leave room to the NW to trend for the 22nd/23rd.  I really want to see how this trends as modeling is able to sort through the depth and intensity of the incoming cold air mass.  The lion's share of the cold appears to be coming after the 26th.  I would expect a storm to rid that incoming boundary. 

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1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

For kicks and giggles....this is where it heads to about 100 hours after the map above.  It is colder here prior to this snapshot.  I just wanted to show this as North America is just frigid in this run.  Impressive for a model which has been known for a slight warm bias in this range.

Screen_Shot_2023-01-16_at_3.06.07_PM.png

TBF - if we get an airmass like that and a 500 profile as indicated on the ensembles................. at some point there'd be a nasty snow/ice overrunning event from TX/OK through the TN/KY region.

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By mechanism, to clarify, I mean a -EPO.  Also, there are echoes of a -NAO on many runs and ensemble runs from time to time. It is on the EPS control big time.  If we manage a -EPO and -NAO, that is a nice winter couplet.  Honestly, that is the kind of couplet where we would be ready for spring after that matures.  

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