Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2022 Author Share Posted December 22, 2022 22 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Well, I thought it couldn't go up much more..... At some point that has to drop pretty precipitously. Thanks, man! Modelling seems to be centering on Jan5-10 for a return to the eastern trough and significant PNA ridge. Let's if it doesn't show a pretty big drop soon as modeling is picking up on a fairly decent reshuffle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2022 Author Share Posted December 22, 2022 Euro Weeklies look good. Control builds a glacier over NE TN, SW VA, And WNC. Pattern transitions between the 8th and 12th. Looks really good. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Euro Weeklies look good. Control builds a glacier over NE TN, SW VA, And WNC. Pattern transitions between the 8th and 12th. Looks really good. Nice! That's what im talking about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Euro Weeklies look good. Control builds a glacier over NE TN, SW VA, And WNC. Pattern transitions between the 8th and 12th. Looks really good.1996?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2022 Author Share Posted December 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: 1996? . Even looking at the 18z GFS...it rolled the ridge right through and put the trough back in the East right after New Year. No idea what the analog would be as the details are still a bit blurry. Honestly, it has a lot of 09-10 and 10-11 in that look. I just don't know if it verifies, because we are talking like 15-17 days before the transition...unless the 18z is correct, and we just continue as is.... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 8 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Well, I thought it couldn't go up much more..... At some point that has to drop pretty precipitously. Reason why is because of a cyclone in that area I believe 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 Both the GFS/CMC and some combination of their operationals/ensembles sped up the return of cold/seasonal temps. They returned to the original timeline of the 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 Digging a little deeper this AM, the MJO is handled quite differently by several models, and I think that situation is fluid - meaning the final result is not fixed understandably. I do expect model fluctuations. For example, the 0z CFSv2 is a complete reversal of its 18z self and keeps the ridge in the east. For now, I stick w/ the Euro weeklies (which are fallible at times) which do have a reasonable MJO projection. This morning, the GEFS MJO loops back into phase 6. Most other modeling either continues into low amplitude cold phases or COD. Again, the colder water where phase 8 would be is highly likely hampering the MJO progression. I have seen many comments about this being a Nino look. I definitely disagree. Cold in December, especially west of the Apps and not east near the coast, is a massive Nina signal. The real question going forward is whether this does an '89 and winter disappears. Or, and what is more likely IMO, does winter have several more punches to throw? The Canadian ensemble/operational, GFS operational, and Euro control support a quicker return to winter. I like the 10-11 analogs in addition to some stronger cold analogs(but toned down). I do think January and Feb might well run neutral to warm as a base phase, but w/ strong colder interludes similar to November. Edit: The cold analogs along w/ a base neutral/warm sound juxtaposed to each other. The cold analogs would be used to help identify cold shots. Many of our coldest winters had very warm interludes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 27 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Digging a little deeper this AM, the MJO is handled quite differently by several models, and I think that situation is fluid - meaning the final result is not fixed understandably. I do expect model fluctuations. For example, the 0z CFSv2 is a complete reversal of its 18z self and keeps the ridge in the east. For now, I stick w/ the Euro weeklies (which are fallible at times) which do have a reasonable MJO projection. This morning, the GEFS MJO loops back into phase 6. Most other modeling either continues into low amplitude cold phases or COD. Again, the colder water where phase 8 would be is highly likely hampering the MJO progression. I have seen many comments about this being a Nino look. I definitely disagree. Cold in December, especially west of the Apps and not east near the coast, is a massive Nina signal. The real question going forward is whether this does an '89 and winter disappears. Or, and what is more likely IMO, does winter have several more punches to throw? The Canadian ensemble/operational, GFS operational, and Euro control support a quicker return to winter. I like the 10-11 analogs in addition to some stronger cold analogs(but toned down). I do think January and Feb might well run natural to warm as a base phase, but w/ strong colder interludes similar to November. That answers my question which was whether anyone thought this episode was a passing thing or simply an opening shot of winter? I know in my location we certainly did not get the 4" or 5" that the GFS was saying, we did get snow but it looks to be about an inch maybe. The wind and cold were the big story this go around imo 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 1 minute ago, matt9697 said: That answers my question which was whether anyone thought this episode was a passing thing or simply an opening shot of winter? I know in my location we certainly did not get the 4" or 5" that the GFS was saying, we did get snow but it looks to be about an inch maybe. The wind and cold were the big story this go around imo Honestly, I doubt we have another cold shot that is as cold relative to norms, but I don't have a crystal ball. My guess is opening shot to winter. The CFSv2 at 0z would end winter. I doubt it is right, and it doesn't have support from its own 24hour model suite(4 runs) and doesn't have support from the Euro Weeklies. If we are sitting in mid-January w/ the cold pattern still 14-16 days away....then we know. LOL. There is a possibility the MJO rotates back into 6 and stalls. My guess is that we get at least one more rotation through the cold phases. The Nina "should" weaken as winter progress, and that might help. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 The 6z CFSv2 flipped back to a colder east. Modeling is waffling a bit w/ the PNA ridge. The pattern is either, IMHO, going to retrograde that Hudson Bay block into a PNA ridge or leave it over the HB. I can't decide which I like better. HB blocks in the middle of winter do deliver the goods more often than not. IMHO, that HB block is going to retrograde into a PNA ridge, but if it doesn't that isn't a terrible look. Here is Jan 9-16th.... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 And the weeklies last night had this for almost the same time frame 8th-15th. The Weeklies eventually remove the HB block altogether after this and then by the end of January begin to show a rebuilding of the -NAO... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 Weeklies 46 day snow maps (ensemble and control)...Plenty of snow pack (even some which is erased by the thaw right after Christmas) should be present and allow for cold to funnel southeastward. You can kind of see the various storm tracks - very Nina-esque. The tracks are Plains-Midwest as primary for snow and Apps as a secondary. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Carver, is it hard to tell where the mjo is? Those rmm charts are sometimes misreading in the actual location. Hopefully we have a few more opportunities at winter weather before winter is over. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said: Carver, is it hard to tell where the mjo is? Those rmm charts are sometimes misreading in the actual location. Hopefully we have a few more opportunities at winter weather before winter is over. And I think modeling doesn't know where the MJO is at times. Generally, and I haven't looked this season, you can just tell by looking at where convection is. I can tell that modeling is struggling w/ the MJO, because the plots are all over the place. Just looking, 12z modeling is wanting to quickly break down eastern ridging and retrograde those AN heights into the West. We will see if that holds. If so, that tells me the MJO is probably sneaking into low amplitude 8. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 Dealying w/ some maps 300+ at the operational level, so proceed at your own risk. Source regions are an issue by the 5th, but likey that gets rectified quite quickly if that ridge continues to retrograde slightly westward. You can see the fairly big flip at 500mb. That is not split flow in the second image, but a stalled slp over the Four Corners. It could be real or feedback...both make sense. Either way, I do actually think split flow develops IF the pattern evolves like that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: And I think modeling doesn't know where the MJO is at times. Generally, and I haven't looked this season, you can just tell by looking at where convection is. I can tell that modeling is struggling w/ the MJO, because the plots are all over the place. Just looking, 12z modeling is wanting to quickly break down eastern ridging and retrograde those AN heights into the West. We will see if that holds. If so, that tells me the MJO is probably sneaking into low amplitude 8. Agree. Yeah, most likely be a good indication irt the MJO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 18z GFS has the return to cold inside of 300hours. Massive PNA. It will change some I am sure at this range. It is just a good example of where this could go if that ridge pops. That gigantic banana high setup is money. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 18z GFS has the return to cold inside of 300hours. Massive PNA. It will change some I am sure at this range. It is just a good example of where this could go if that ridge pops. That gigantic banana high setup is money. Hopefully no more extreme cold but an I-40 special or two would be nice 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 21 minutes ago, matt9697 said: Hopefully no more extreme cold but an I-40 special or two would be nice The 18z is an extreme look - right off the North Pole. We may be in a repeating pattern as Holston mentioned earlier. Not sure at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 23 Dec 2022 1014.64 1001.10 50.96 15.98 14.00 22 Dec 2022 1015.01 1000.55 55.74 14.44 13.62 21 Dec 2022 1013.67 1002.65 37.88 12.36 13.17 20 Dec 2022 1011.61 1004.00 20.19 11.13 12.89 19 Dec 2022 1012.50 1004.15 24.03 10.55 12.83 18 Dec 2022 1013.74 1004.55 28.39 10.08 12.70 17 Dec 2022 1012.11 1004.30 21.23 9.53 12.64 16 Dec 2022 1010.65 1004.65 11.83 8.95 12.75 15 Dec 2022 1011.02 1006.50 4.15 8.67 12.95 14 Dec 2022 1012.48 1008.45 1.61 9.05 13.13 13 Dec 2022 1011.91 1008.30 -0.57 9.03 13.21 12 Dec 2022 1009.65 1007.30 -7.11 8.78 13.30 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 14 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 23 Dec 2022 1014.64 1001.10 50.96 15.98 14.00 22 Dec 2022 1015.01 1000.55 55.74 14.44 13.62 21 Dec 2022 1013.67 1002.65 37.88 12.36 13.17 20 Dec 2022 1011.61 1004.00 20.19 11.13 12.89 19 Dec 2022 1012.50 1004.15 24.03 10.55 12.83 18 Dec 2022 1013.74 1004.55 28.39 10.08 12.70 17 Dec 2022 1012.11 1004.30 21.23 9.53 12.64 16 Dec 2022 1010.65 1004.65 11.83 8.95 12.75 15 Dec 2022 1011.02 1006.50 4.15 8.67 12.95 14 Dec 2022 1012.48 1008.45 1.61 9.05 13.13 13 Dec 2022 1011.91 1008.30 -0.57 9.03 13.21 12 Dec 2022 1009.65 1007.30 -7.11 8.78 13.30 Jax, I think it was from the Typhoon in that area increasing the soi, but I ain't no weatherman. It's over my pay grade lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2022 Author Share Posted December 24, 2022 Long Range Discussion: The CFSv2 today (both runs) is woefully out of sync w/ its MJO(goes into 8 if I remember correctly). The GFS and GEPS and Euro Weeklies show a PNA/EPO ridge building out West. I don't think this is a slam dunk as evidenced by the CFS today. However, until modeling settles on the MJO progression...we are going to see haywire solutions. Additionally, when modeling is behaving erratically....extremely cold air in the LR can cause that. Remember when modeling lost the cold, found it, kicked the can, and then it came gangbusters this week? I do. Similar look for mid January. I can't tell if winter is departing(unlikely) or reloading(likely) with any certainty.... 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2022 Author Share Posted December 24, 2022 Loosely, it looks like a transition to a more favorable pattern (after the warmth) begins to return around the 5th and is solidly in place by the 10th at 500mb. It would not surprise me to see some can kicking. Cold will lag slightly. I would post the 12z GEFS and GEPS, but they are 300+ and subject to change. Basically, the pattern retrogrades the eastern ridge into the EPO/PNA regions. That said, the CFSv2 (which has a great MJO progression) is having none of it at 0z and 6z. @WxUSAFnoted(paraphrasing) in the MA forum that the MJO has not had a huge influence on weather of late over NA. I doubt this is a slam dunk, but for now...the PNA/EPO ridge looks to build and central and eastern Canada cool quickly in response. What will be interesting is whether NAO blocking builds back as the potential ridging out west wanes later this month. @Holston_River_Rambler, it does look like a repeating pattern similar to November in many ways. As always at this range, huge grains of salt. 10-11 is a nice analog so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 20 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Loosely, it looks like a transition to a more favorable pattern (after the warmth) begins to return around the 5th and is solidly in place by the 10th at 500mb. It would not surprise me to see some can kicking. Cold will lag slightly. I would post the 12z GEFS and GEPS, but they are 300+ and subject to change. Basically, the pattern retrogrades the eastern ridge into the EPO/PNA regions. That said, the CFSv2 (which has a great MJO progression) is having none of it at 0z and 6z. @WxUSAFnoted(paraphrasing) in the MA forum that the MJO has not had a huge influence on weather of late over NA. I doubt this is a slam dunk, but for now...the PNA/EPO ridge looks to build and central and eastern Canada cool quickly in response. What will be interesting is whether NAO blocking builds back as the potential ridging out west wanes later this month. @Holston_River_Rambler, it does look like a repeating pattern similar to November in many ways. As always at this range, huge grains of salt. 10-11 is a nice analog so far. Carver, a -epo is what we want and wpo. Those are the kings of cold like we are finding out now. I believe mid January before our next time frame for maybe getting cold again but take that with a grain of salt. The -nao didn't work because trough was too far inland instead of being out in pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2022 Author Share Posted December 25, 2022 Always allow for kicking the can down the road. Looks to me like the transition to colder begins Jan5-10 at 500mb...and then really gets going around the 12th if modeling is close to being correct. The 12z CFSv2 flipped back to cold for that time frame in what would be another extreme episode. What we really want for fun winter games is to trap the vortex under a broad based banana high in which the EPO/PNA connects to AN heights in the Davis Straits. I still would say I am concerned this flips warm and holds, but for now...modeling looks good. Below would bring it: 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 Any warmth in January has me worried it stays warm & brings severe wx. Though this cold has been really interesting to experience, that’s enough of this extreme cold for me. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2022 Author Share Posted December 25, 2022 10 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Any warmth in January has me worried it stays warm & brings severe wx. Though this cold has been really interesting to experience, that’s enough of this extreme cold for me. Yep. Some severe outbreaks are embedded in many really good winters. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 Yep. Some severe outbreaks are embedded in many really good winters. You take the good with the bad in winters when the GOM is active . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 like the wild swings in the SOI,we saw this somewhat as the MJO moved across the WP in Nov but we didnt see the suppressed air into the IO in which the CFS is showing,but certainly can change.The MJO is showing a similar pattern as what we just recently saw as it heads into the WP its gonna possibly dive into the COD as it progresses so then we need to look at what drives the pattern,definite want to see the AK change.I was thinking the pattern will change towards the good into the 2nd week of Jan now it looks more towards mid month/JMHO 25 Dec 2022 1012.96 1005.85 17.59 16.96 13.85 24 Dec 2022 1012.85 1004.25 25.33 16.44 14.01 23 Dec 2022 1014.64 1001.10 50.96 15.98 14.00 22 Dec 2022 1015.01 1000.55 55.74 14.44 13.62 21 Dec 2022 1013.67 1002.65 37.88 12.36 13.17 20 Dec 2022 1011.61 1004.00 20.19 11.13 12.89 19 Dec 2022 1012.50 1004.15 24.03 10.55 12.83 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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