Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2023 Author Share Posted January 13, 2023 The 12z EPS bringing out the cold hammer. Not sure what the GEFS is doing, but the GEPS and EPS would provide an excellent window for winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2023 Author Share Posted January 13, 2023 20 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Leave it here for now,but something to watch the next several days That a split? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: That a split? Dunno right now,think it was yesterday or the day before the GFS didnt show much of the winds dying down like today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Definite need to just watch and see what unfolds the next several days 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 If the Euro is right we could get pretty cold for a spell into the last week of Jan 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 6 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: If the Euro is right we could get pretty cold for a spell into the last week of Jan Maybe we can avoid Canada dumping all its cold at once this time and the Canucks will dole it out one 1038 HP at a time. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: That a split? There have been a couple of OP GFS long range runs that have shown a semi split over the past couple of days, but that's about it so far. One oft he frames in Jax's gif shows one of those runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Maybe we can avoid Canada dumping all its cold at once this time and the Canucks will dole it out one 1038 HP at a time. Dunno,dont like where the MJO is headed into Feb right now,seems to showing Maritime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 1 minute ago, jaxjagman said: Dunno,dont like where the MJO is headed into Feb right now,seems to showing Maritime It's eventually heading back that way for sure, but if we get a trough dump in the west hopefully we can keep a -EPO and at least keep some cold in play in Canada this time. I guess once it cycles back to 4-5-6, we hope it doesn't do that extra long Pac jet extension and just wipe out all -ve temp anomalies on our continent again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: It's eventually heading back that way for sure, but if we get a trough dump in the west hopefully we can keep a -EPO and at least keep some cold in play in Canada this time. I guess once it cycles back to 4-5-6, we hope it doesn't do that extra long Pac jet extension and just wipe out all -ve temp anomalies on our continent again. Think you said it several days ago,pattern looks up and down right now,but i still think we turn much colder maybe towards the the end of Jan,maybe we can get a system for someone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 10 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Think you said it several days ago,pattern looks up and down right now,but i still think we turn much colder maybe towards the the end of Jan,maybe we can get a system for someone That's what I'm hoping too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Not sure i trust the CFS,seems to be showing a rossby wave with a Kelvin Wave crashing into the MJO and it blows up into portions of the IO,this probably should strenghten the MJO into the Maritime towards the end of the month 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 6z OP GFS looked a little more suppressed with the energy scooting out of the SW. Hopefully that's a nod towards the Euro's progression. edit to specify that I'm talking about days 7+ pattern evolution 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 I swear this is like deja vu for me for this time last month. I start worrying about the flood pattern, then that pattern starts to look more suppressed: Then Jax posts about East Asia. I've included his December post here just to show how eerily similar it is to yesterdays: On 12/12/2022 at 5:46 PM, jaxjagman said: Wonder if the GFS is gonna be actually close to what its showing on the thermals around Christmas,Thats some height drops in East Asia,havent seen that in a few years. 11 hours ago, jaxjagman said: If the Euro is right we could get pretty cold for a spell into the last week of Jan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 On 11/26/2022 at 5:27 PM, Holston_River_Rambler said: In fact, we might want to go ahead and clear janetjanet a place off at the TN Valley weather table: There's that La Nina firehose we all know and love! Here's my "flooding" post from late November for reference 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Heck, even the strat is under strain like in late Nov: November gif: 6z this AM: Now, the type of stress the SPV is under here is not the same. There is no -NAO currently helping to displace it, but there are signs of a Scandinavian ridge exerting some pressure later this month: Late November: 6z this AM 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2023 Author Share Posted January 14, 2023 LOL. The 0z EPS caved to the GEFS last night...only to have the GEFS leave it join the CMC camp shortly after the 23rd. The CMC hasn't budged. With models bouncing around, this tells me some extremely cold air is about to enter the pattern in the Lower 48. I am sure the strat warm stuff has modeling all over the place as well. To echo Holston, this is almost the same repeat as late November. Can kicking, strat stuff, and then we got 4-5 day of extreme cold. The 6z GEFS is actually very cold later in its run which is a huge change. It mirrors the CMC in the same way. Both have a very cold shot around 300. It seems modeling his having trouble w/ the low in the southwest and also which storm could deliver cold. Source regions are going to reload. All it will take is one cutter or one coastal to deliver a very cold shot. I think that is what modeling is trying to "figure out." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2023 Author Share Posted January 14, 2023 EPS around the 22nd. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2023 Author Share Posted January 14, 2023 The 6z CFSv2 has cooled significantly after the 23rd. Its overall look for February(monthly forecast which runs once per day at 0z) is much cooler than yesterday at 0z. As for the flopping around...again, I have to constantly remind myself that when cold air enters the pattern, it causes model chaos. We saw something very similar during early December. And again, the middle and western parts of our forum are favored in this set-up. However, as I noted w/ the EPS post above, eastern areas are also in the mix. Honestly, I think we will look back at this upslope event and see that the HB block pattern began to change at that point. Time will tell what the new pattern is..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2023 Author Share Posted January 14, 2023 One important note(and I have about 1/2" of snow in my yard this morning), is that the current MJO is in very low amplitude phase 8. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2023 Author Share Posted January 14, 2023 Thunder in the mountains during winter, and within ten days it snows. Check. That "saying" is probably more reliable than any weather model - truly. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 47 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: LOL. The 0z EPS caved to the GEFS last night...only to have the GEFS leave it join the CMC camp shortly after the 23rd. The CMC hasn't budged. With models bouncing around, this tells me some extremely cold air is about to enter the pattern in the Lower 48. I am sure the strat warm stuff has modeling all over the place as well. To echo Holston, this is almost the same repeat as late November. Can kicking, strat stuff, and then we got 4-5 day of extreme cold. The 6z GEFS is actually very cold later in its run which is a huge change. It mirrors the CMC in the same way. Both have a very cold shot around 300. It seems modeling his having trouble w/ the low in the southwest and also which storm could deliver cold. Source regions are going to reload. All it will take is one cutter or one coastal to deliver a very cold shot. I think that is what modeling is trying to "figure out." Hopefully if this is the case, with very cold air, we will fair as good as last time. Do not want a scenario where we get ice or a lot of snow followed by ten days or so of very cold. At least the last shot was comparatively short lived. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2023 Author Share Posted January 14, 2023 7 minutes ago, matt9697 said: Hopefully if this is the case, with very cold air, we will fair as good as last time. Do not want a scenario where we get ice or a lot of snow followed by ten days or so of very cold. At least the last shot was comparatively short lived. Man, it is just hard to tell. LR modeling is all over the place. The 6z CFSv2 coming in that cold is a concern in that regard. The set-up for ice/snow in west TN is still there. However, it bounces around a lot. Time will tell if that run is a trend or a blip. However, the 6z GEFS, 0z CMC, and 6z CFSv2 are both centering a pretty cold shot around the 27th. They all still have the 22nd/23rd event. The real question I have is whether this cold pattern holds for a time. When this HB block hit, it looked transient on modeling...but eventually modeling held, and we went warm. Does that happen in reverse this time? Not sure, but there are some signs it could. The MJO this morning is very low amplitude as it transits the cold phases. Does it continue through 4-6 or does it cross the COD, and loop back. I do think we are seeing the Nino begin to have some influence right now. However, that SER showing up in the LR is also a textbook Nina characteristic. And I mentioned this earlier, wavelengths will begin to shorten-up, and that would likely dislodge any cold in the Mountain West and send it eastward. The biggest thing is that we are exiting the HB block pattern which bottled up the cold (in conjunction w/ a terrible Pacific). Short story: I am looking at two windows for snow. One is the 22nd-23rd. Another is around the 27th. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 DT sounds super defeated in this video. I know his perspective is largely Hampton Roads based. It's been rough but he's talking like there's no light on the horizon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2023 Author Share Posted January 14, 2023 DT. is a good forecaster. Oddly, I am not a "glass half full" kind of person. I wish that I was. Positive people are much more fun to be around. So, I can relate to DT on some levels. I am a bit of a realist. So, you all should know that up front as you read my posts. If I lived along the East coast, I would probably have a different perspective for sure. They are watching snow threads pop for places hundreds of miles to their southwest, including today. They also didn't get much benefit from the December cold or get near as cold as we did. La Nina winters don't have many coastal tracks. Most Nina storm tracks are cutters or inland runners. The QBO flip will impact them the most. The QBO is deal is real as well. Some places in the MA are sitting at zero for snow. Our forum area(as a whole...not the entirety) has done much better. As for MBY, we got very light accumulating snow overnight, so I can't complain. I need to go back and look at the coastal forums right before snowmegadon hit. It was pretty dismal. I used to get into the doom and gloom, but not as much anymore. I run quite a bit, and cold winters are tough. Right now, we have gotten in some good miles this month. Plus, I really hate 90 degree days more than I love snow. So, I just enjoy not being smothered for most of winter. Plus, I think living in Florida for a couple of years as a kid really changed my perspective. A snow lover spending a winter in central Florida....that is a snow lover's hell. LOL. There is a lot to be thankful for in life... And one last thing, there is a lot to enjoy about this hobby beside snow. I got into this to follow snow storms. I have branched out a bit, and that makes this much more fun. I really hope to see our forum grown during the "off season." Honestly, I really enjoyed watching the atmospheric river(boy, is that every an overused term nowadays) hit Mammoth and places like that in California. I enjoyed tracking the extreme cold in December. And I don't think we are done tracking interesting stuff in our area. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 30 minutes ago, *Flash* said: DT sounds super defeated in this video. I know his perspective is largely Hampton Roads based. It's been rough but he's talking like there's no light on the horizon. I used to interact with him but, lost all respect. He is, as is any passioned Met or Enthusiast, knowledgeable in pretty much all facets of Meteorology. However, he is the epitome of Narcissist. Very insulting and demeaning if anyone disagrees with him. He busted terribly with his Wolfing Winter Storm back in December. He , as most other's did, bit the Model's projections. Thing is, if you brought it to his attention he'd lose his cool and excise it off somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 51 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: DT. is a good forecaster. Oddly, I am not a "glass half full" kind of person. I wish that I was. Positive people are much more fun to be around. So, I can relate to DT on some levels. I am a bit of a realist. So, you all should know that up front as you read my posts. If I lived along the East coast, I would probably have a different perspective for sure. They are watching snow threads pop for places hundreds of miles to their southwest, including today. They also didn't get much benefit from the December cold or get near as cold as we did. La Nina winters don't have many coastal tracks. Most Nina storm tracks are cutters or inland runners. The QBO flip will impact them the most. The QBO is deal is real as well. Some places in the MA are sitting at zero for snow. Our forum area(as a whole...not the entirety) has done much better. As for MBY, we got very light accumulating snow overnight, so I can't complain. I need to go back and look at the coastal forums right before snowmegadon hit. It was pretty dismal. I used to get into the doom and gloom, but not as much anymore. I run quite a bit, and cold winters are tough. Right now, we have gotten in some good miles this month. Plus, I really hate 90 degree days more than I love snow. So, I just enjoy not being smothered for most of winter. Plus, I think living in Florida for a couple of years as a kid really changed my perspective. A snow lover spending a winter in central Florida....that is a snow lover's hell. LOL. There is a lot to be thankful for in life... And one last thing, there is a lot to enjoy about this hobby beside snow. I got into this to follow snow storms. I have branched out a bit, and that makes this much more fun. I really hope to see our forum grown during the "off season." Honestly, I really enjoyed watching the atmospheric river(boy, is that every an overused term nowadays) hit Mammoth and places like that in California. I enjoyed tracking the extreme cold in December. And I don't think we are done tracking interesting stuff in our area. lol...snow lovers hell,i like that 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2023 Author Share Posted January 14, 2023 The d10+ evolution on the 12z GFS is what we want, and is what is on many ensembles - large scale, NA cold outbreak. Is it right? No idea, but we want to see some of those looks in the LR to support ensembles. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 The 180-210 timeframe has a small potential. Looks very cutter-esque though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Keep seeing for a time being more ridge over Japan into South Korea,this should be more or less ridge around the Carolinas into the 3rd week of Jan but for a brief time after it gets broke down,we should turn cold again still towards the end of the month,but no clue about after,its probably just gonna be the typical up and down pattern we've seen lately but i'm not sure we really cool down until then,not much anyways,seem to me a period OF A/N is on the horizon 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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