Daniel Boone Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 18 minutes ago, John1122 said: Two nasty ice storms in the early 80s here but the king imby is Christmas 1998. 2 days of light to moderate rain with a peak temp of 28. It was supposed to get above freezing but didn't. The sounds in the woods, of cracking and limbs breaking at night is eerie. It was a no power Christmas. I know just south and west of here had a major freezing rain event in either 2014 or 2015 when i got pounded by 3 inches of sleet and 4 or 5 inches of snow. Places just north of me that stayed all snow got well over 12 inches. Those big sleet and ice events usually happen in western areas or the Carolina side of things. That Feb. 2015 one wound up being the 15-20 inches deal for here. North Jonesville, near Stone Mountain officially reported 20 while my local se of Town 15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 18z GEFS appears to have sobered up. Major league 500mb cold delivery pattern. @John1122, that is your pattern, man. PNA/EPO driven. Looks good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 With modeling jumping around (see GEFS today) and the overall construct of blocking and the height of the western ridge...I think the set-up is there for another severe cold snap, but this time w/ normal precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 7 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Kind of in a waiting for test and test results situation right now so thought I’d kill some time with what looks like a hopefully a good upslope set up. Hopefully that write up pans out lol. Good luck to them Holston. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Oddly, I have never been in an ice storm. I have experience icing and terrible roads due to that...but not the “turn out the lights” stuff. I experienced ice storm feb 1994 and it was bad. 4-6 inches ice and we was out of school for a week. While we was out, I played golf every day in Memphis at the time. Places sw of me in nw Mississippi saw close to 8 inches ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 The message of LR modeling today is the rapid cooling of the North American continent after Jan 20th. Source regions for storms after that should be cold. That doesn't mean a ridge won't roll through. It has happened all winter, and it isn't going to stop now. It is still far enough out there that it could change, but it is just about "go time" for that transition at 500mb. The storm this weekend cracks the old pattern. The HB block will briefly try to re-establish after this weekend's storm, and then the next system will weaken it again. Then, a fairly large scale hemispheric pattern change would appear to be on the table. The GEFS at noon tried some can kicking, but 18z has resumed the drum beat. The 18z CFSv2 and GEFS Ext are coming in very cold. We had noted that as modeling began to "see" the MJO plots, they would eventually cool off. That has begun. Plenty could go wrong as we live in the sub tropics. For now, this is a good look. I will try to post some maps later 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: With modeling jumping around (see GEFS today) and the overall construct of blocking and the height of the western ridge...I think the set-up is there for another severe cold snap, but this time w/ normal precip. Hopefully severe is not as severe as before. That was just brutal with the wind. I like winter but the older I get I prefer cold but not the kinda cold we just had. Luckily it was during the holidays so I did not have to get out in it. If this next cold spell does happen. I will have to actually get out in it. Unless someone would like to volunteer for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 14 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: If I was in middle and west TN, I would be licking my chops. This fits climatology and fits the pattern of this and the past two Nina winters. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 10 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Looks good for a screen saver! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 And there it is. First negative SOI reading since (I think) November 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said: And there it is. First negative SOI reading since (I think) November Good catch! That is a pretty rapid drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 The 0z EPS has sped up the pattern change a bit to the 21st. That looks a bit quick to me, but does support the operational. I do think the SER is going to try to flex at times. It is a blessing and a curse...we need it in small doses to prevent systems from going OTS or being too suppressed. Get too much of it, and E TN folks will see warm-nose city. I think the pattern will be base cold after the 23rd for a 2-3 weeks. However, like the past three winters, the cold comes in surges and the SER is present as the cold departs, and then the cold comes back. Wash, rinse, repeat. The MJO "should" rotate back into warm phases at some point. Though, for the past couple of days, there have been hints that it will try to cycle back into the COD w/a a chance to skip them. My guess is it takes the warm tour, but there should be plenty of cold prior to that. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 One thing to note, wavelengths often begin to change in February. Long story short, storms can appear quickly and unexpectedly on modeling due to shorten wavelengths during February. So, what looks like a barren pattern may actually just be a mirage. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 There's been some strat can kicking, but I'd say we're still under a Strat watch: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 The 22nd-23rd timeframe slipped inside the 10day window today...so, it needs to be watched. The 12z GFS is out of sync w/ previous ensembles which is no surprise as its verification scores this winter have been pretty bad at this range. The 12z CMC has a decent look at 240, but that is about all will say w/ it being that far out there. Just some interesting stuff to watch for this weekend as that timeframe comes into view. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 22nd-23rd timeframe slipped inside the 10day window today...so, it needs to be watched. The 12z GFS is out of sync w/ previous ensembles which is no surprise as its verification scores this winter have been pretty bad at this range. The 12z CMC has a decent look at 240, but that is about all will say w/ it being that far out there. Just some interesting stuff to watch for this weekend as that timeframe comes into view. Yea, got to give props to the GFS for being able to provide a different solution each run lol 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, matt9697 said: Yea, got to give props to the GFS for being able to provide a different solution each run lol LOL. I mean it is a regular buffet of weather solutions. In all seriousness, it is having an issue w/ a slp stalling in the southwest. Could it happen? Sure. I have learned never to complete discount the Four Corners low(which stalls out).....but I am not sure it will have support from its own ensemble. We'll see here in a minute. I also think some of those wild runs have to be skewing the GEFS as it likely contains multiple crazy members. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Yea, got to give props to the GFS for being able to provide a different solution each run lol If you’re going to be bad, be really bad . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 6 minutes ago, matt9697 said: Yea, got to give props to the GFS for being able to provide a different solution each run lol Yeah, the January hurricane run from earlier this week brings home that point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 Warm start, cold, flooding, snow, severe wx, and variable....those are the tags which I gave the month of January when I created the thread in December. Little did I know it would happen all on the same day. SW VA, SE KY, and the mountains of E TN/NC are in for a wild, wild ride. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Yay thunder! That's all I need to hear to know it's gonna snow January 22nd. Book it. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8283 El Nino Baby Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 The current CMC seems to agree. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 12z Euro looks a bit interesting late in the run.... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 Man, have you ever watched a series and it ends on a cliffhanger? I know everyone has, but the 12z Euro.... ....only 20 more runs to go. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1 hour ago, Stovepipe said: Yay thunder! That's all I need to hear to know it's gonna snow January 22nd. Book it. Thunder CONFIRMED, the prophecy has been told... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2023 Author Share Posted January 13, 2023 The GFS this morning is on an island and is an outlier in the d1-16 range. It is either going to score a coup or miss badly. The CMC and Euro(along w/ ensembles) show a return to seasonal or BN beginning the 22nd/23rd. The pattern of the past three months looks to continue, but quicker cycles. The Jan 23rd to first or second week of Feb looks to be our window for winter storms this go around. Then the trough is almost universally forecast to retrograde into the northern Rockies which is no surprise there as that is classic Nina climatology. However, due to shortening wavelengths, we should see waves of cold push int eastern North America as the cold source regions will have been restored to winter type levels. If we really want fun and games, we need to pull for the CMC to be correct as it locks the trough over eastern NA w/ PV source regions. I don't totally discount the Canadian run as it has scored highly this winter at that range. At some point, however, the MJO plots should dictate a rotation through warmer phases down the road. For now, I would blend the Canadian and Euro suite(including ensembles), and go with that. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2023 Author Share Posted January 13, 2023 Pretty good pass on the 22nd on both the Euro and GFS at 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2023 Author Share Posted January 13, 2023 The 12z Euro has a second storm behind that one in which the 500vort map looks quite potent. The 12z Euro seems to match ensembles and the MJO the closest FWIW. Now, back to the upslope event nearest you........... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Leave it here for now,but something to watch the next several days 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202301120000&player_dimension=base_time 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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