Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2023 Author Share Posted January 11, 2023 Good write-up by Larry Cosgrove this morning on social media. Here is a brief excerpt. A rough end to the January Thaw? Storms and cold a big part of the national forecast. Many of you have gotten used to the rather benign nature of January so far. There is the (usual) talk of "winter cancel", and speculation that spring has already begun. This is, of course, rather unwise. Even with the alterations caused by global warming, winter is still here, lurking in Siberia and northern Canada. And when it returns full force to the lower 48 stats around January 20, my best advice is to be prepared. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 12z NAM family looks great. 24-36hrs of NWSF. Some streamers across the valley too. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 1 hour ago, fountainguy97 said: Some streamers across the valley too. Hi res models have been pretty consistent with a fetch of Lake Michigan 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 One thing I also like about this upslope is that the vorts rotating through seems to be positioned in just the right way to accentuate the Lake Michigan feed. The red arrows are vort lobes rotating in and the blue arrow is the fetch off lake Michigan. I'm not sure if it works the same way as a jet or not, but that should put places from the Smokies north in the left exit region of the vort max and help maximize not only the orographic lift but the PVA as well. There is a 500 wind max over east central MS as well: but that may be too far away to help much, The above were from the 12z 3km NAM just for resolution purposes. Euro has the two vort maxes too, just at a lower resolution. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 12 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: One thing I also like about this upslope is that the vorts rotating through seems to be positioned in just the right way to accentuate the Lake Michigan feed. The red arrows are vort lobes rotating in and the blue arrow is the fetch off lake Michigan. I'm not sure if it works the same way as a jet or not, but that should put places from the Smokies north in the left exit region of the vort max and help maximize not only the orographic lift but the PVA as well. There is a 500 wind max over east central MS as well: but that may be too far away to help much, The above were from the 12z 3km NAM just for resolution purposes. Euro has the two vort maxes too, just at a lower resolution. Good work Holston ! Thanks for all you do. I seldom feel like doing much these days and what you, Carver's John etal do really helps. I Hope / pray your loved one"s are recovering. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 42 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Hope / pray your loved one"s are recovering. Kind of in a waiting for test and test results situation right now so thought I’d kill some time with what looks like a hopefully a good upslope set up. Hopefully that write up pans out lol. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Here we are at January 11th, hopefully sometime in the next 7 days we see the possible pattern change to a colder more winter like pattern in the long range get more pronounced and the can kicking stops. I am still optimistic that the last week of January into February will bring us 2-3 good systems for the forum to track. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2023 Author Share Posted January 11, 2023 IMHO, you can see the strat warming stuff starting to cause models to get jumpy. The 12z EPS and CMC are a pretty good pairing this winter, and seem steady. I think they will be correct, and they will likely adjust colder if legit. The 12z GEFS/GFS combo is a fairly big change in continuity - colder and further west w/ the trough. Though I doubt the GEFS is correct, that is just screaming for a west TN ice/snow storm.....couldn't draw it up any better. And that is why I think the strat stuff is causing issues.....big time cold heads into a pattern that didn't have it in the days prior in the LR. Usually that cold really wants to dump westward. Buckle up. This could be a wild 4-6 weeks once that first front rolls thought on the 23rd - hot, cold, hot, cold....base seasonal. I don't completely discount the GEFS as it often nails strat stuff, but it has also been woeful after d10 during this winter - woeful. That big dump of cold out west is often a sign that the PV is on the move...something to watch. If I was in middle and west TN, I would be licking my chops. This fits climatology and fits the pattern of this and the past two Nina winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Winter Storm Watch for the TN border counties higher elevations. \ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 311 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2023 TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-087-121000- /O.NEW.KMRX.WS.A.0001.230113T0500Z-230114T1200Z/ Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi- Southeast Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Southeast Monroe- Including the cities of Doeville, Mountain City, Neva, Shady Valley, Trade, Laurel Bloomery, Hartford, Cedar Creek, Erwin, Unicoi, Limestone Cove, Hampton, Cades Cove, Elkmont, Gatlinburg, Citico, and Coker Creek 311 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible with locally higher totals possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Mountains of East Tennessee, generally at or above 2500 feet elevation. * WHEN...From late Thursday night through Saturday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2023 Author Share Posted January 11, 2023 More winter wx on tap for higher elevations and maybe light accumulations in the valley. In NE TN, I would think most accumulations would be EAST of I-81 as most NW flow events set up shop there. West of I-81 we may get a stray snow shower...unless banding develops which some modeling does have. If that occurs, just throw out what I just said! So MRX looks correct, 1-2" in JC and Bristol wouldn't be out of the question. Kingsport...maybe a dusting, but I hold out hope that we over perform. LOL. Sometimes it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2023 Author Share Posted January 11, 2023 7 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Winter Storm Watch for the TN border counties higher elevations. \ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 311 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2023 TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-087-121000- /O.NEW.KMRX.WS.A.0001.230113T0500Z-230114T1200Z/ Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi- Southeast Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Southeast Monroe- Including the cities of Doeville, Mountain City, Neva, Shady Valley, Trade, Laurel Bloomery, Hartford, Cedar Creek, Erwin, Unicoi, Limestone Cove, Hampton, Cades Cove, Elkmont, Gatlinburg, Citico, and Coker Creek 311 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible with locally higher totals possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Mountains of East Tennessee, generally at or above 2500 feet elevation. * WHEN...From late Thursday night through Saturday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Not surprising.....this is nice, nice set-up for the mountains for a change. I may take a drive up to the mountains this weekend! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 20 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: IMHO, you can see the strat warming stuff starting to cause models to get jumpy. The 12z EPS and CMC are a pretty good pairing this winter, and seem steady. I think they will be correct, and they will likely adjust colder if legit. The 12z GEFS/GFS combo is a fairly big change in continuity - colder and further west w/ the trough. Though I doubt the GEFS is correct, that is just screaming for a west TN ice/snow storm.....couldn't draw it up any better. And that is why I think the strat stuff is causing issues.....big time cold heads into a pattern that didn't have it in the days prior in the LR. Usually that cold really wants to dump westward. Buckle up. This could be a wild 4-6 weeks once that first front rolls thought on the 23rd - hot, cold, hot, cold....base seasonal. I don't completely discount the GEFS as it often nails strat stuff, but it has also been woeful after d10 during this winter - woeful. That big dump of cold out west is often a sign that the PV is on the move...something to watch. If I was in middle and west TN, I would be licking my chops. This fits climatology and fits the pattern of this and the past two Nina winters. That would be a hard pass for me, do not want any part of an ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2023 Author Share Posted January 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, matt9697 said: That would be a hard pass for me, do not want any part of an ice storm Same! But the 12z GEFS is an over-running set-up if I have ever seen one. It has a slow moving frontal boundary and bitterly cold air behind it. It would tap the GOM likely. That is the setup for winter weather in west TN. We(people in E TN) want the EPS/CMC to verify or the lights are gonna start flickering w/ each run! LOL. But rest easy for today, the GEFS scores at range have been awful. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Same! But the 12z GEFS is an over-running set-up if I have ever seen one. It has a slow moving frontal boundary and bitterly cold air behind it. It would tap the GOM likely. That is the setup for winter weather in west TN. We(people in E TN) want the EPS/CMC to verify or the lights are gonna start flickering w/ each run! LOL. But rest easy for today, the GEFS scores at range have been awful. Exactly, it will likely change - we likely all have memories of horrible experiences with ice storms! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 TBH I wouldn't be surprised if this (upcoming uplsope) is a situation where one of those vorts almost looks like a clipper with its precip heading down from the NW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Oh Lawd it was a Le Conte NAMing at 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 A more realistic total for LeConte, just to keep my posts in reality might be 6-12 on that NAM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2023 Author Share Posted January 11, 2023 18 minutes ago, matt9697 said: Exactly, it will likely change - we likely all have memories of horrible experiences with ice storms! Oddly, I have never been in an ice storm. I have experience icing and terrible roads due to that...but not the “turn out the lights” stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2023 Author Share Posted January 11, 2023 I am not opposed to a thread about the event tomorrow nigh into Sunday AM. We have enough posters in those higher elevation areas that it might be a good idea. Winter storm watches are up for those places as well which would justify it. I am also good with it being in this thread as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2023 Author Share Posted January 11, 2023 Never mind...,Fountain got it! Good work, man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Never mind...,Fountain got it! Good work, man! I'm hungry for flakes 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2023 Author Share Posted January 11, 2023 Just now, fountainguy97 said: I'm hungry for flakes I hope you score BIG! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 I hope yall close to the border get hammered fellas! Best of luck this way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Oddly, I have never been in an ice storm. I have experience icing and terrible roads due to that...but not the “turn out the lights” stuff. Man you are lucky, worst one I have been in is Feb 1994 out of power for a week, many places had to have the electric poles reset because they snapped. That was the same type set up though a stalled boundary and we were just far enough north of the boundary to be in the cold but not deep enough for snow https://www.tennessean.com/picture-gallery/news/local/2015/02/16/nashville-then-ice-storm-of-1994/23505561/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2023 Author Share Posted January 11, 2023 33 minutes ago, matt9697 said: Man you are lucky, worst one I have been in is Feb 1994 out of power for a week, many places had to have the electric poles reset because they snapped. That was the same type set up though a stalled boundary and we were just far enough north of the boundary to be in the cold but not deep enough for snow https://www.tennessean.com/picture-gallery/news/local/2015/02/16/nashville-then-ice-storm-of-1994/23505561/ On second thought...edit meaning I am changing my original comment and was in an ice storm. I was actually in that one in Knoxville I think. I snowed on top of the ice and was terrible for days. I just remembered the snow. But the ice was indeed bad. The interstate was only 1-2 lanes getting to campus. If I remember correctly, there was terrible cold which followed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Check that...edit meaning I am changing my original comment and was in an ice storm. I was actually in that one in Knoxville I think. I snowed on top of the ice and was terrible for days. I just remembered the snow. But the ice was indeed bad. The interstate was only 1-2 lanes getting to campus. If I remember correctly, there was terrible cold which followed. Oh wow, yea, we all love the tracking side of things but every now and again things can get nasty even in the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Two nasty ice storms in the early 80s here but the king imby is Christmas 1998. 2 days of light to moderate rain with a peak temp of 28. It was supposed to get above freezing but didn't. The sounds in the woods, of cracking and limbs breaking at night is eerie. It was a no power Christmas. I know just south and west of here had a major freezing rain event in either 2014 or 2015 when i got pounded by 3 inches of sleet and 4 or 5 inches of snow. Places just north of me that stayed all snow got well over 12 inches. Those big sleet and ice events usually happen in western areas or the Carolina side of things. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Really appreciate all of the posts and weather insights from you guys! Looks like its gonna be our first time expericing a (hopefully) good north west flow event since our move last summer. Moved from Knoxville to Bledsoe county, up on one the higher elevation ridges (2100') of the plateau/waldens ridge. Just happens our small ridge rises above the plateau about 500-700' and oriented facing northwest.. maybe im being to hopeful but a private road near the top is called Snowy Hoping for atleast a good dusting! No idea what to expect really haha 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2023 Author Share Posted January 11, 2023 8 minutes ago, John1122 said: Two nasty ice storms in the early 80s here but the king imby is Christmas 1998. 2 days of light to moderate rain with a peak temp of 28. It was supposed to get above freezing but didn't. The sounds in the woods, of cracking and limbs breaking at night is eerie. It was a no power Christmas. I know just south and west of here had a major freezing rain event in either 2014 or 2015 when i got pounded by 3 inches of sleet and 4 or 5 inches of snow. Places just north of me that stayed all snow got well over 12 inches. Those big sleet and ice events usually happen in western areas or the Carolina side of things. I missed the early 80s storms as I suffered through two winters in Orlando - not the place to be for a snow loving kid! Really, I suffered through central Florida summers. Then we loaded up the truck and moved back to Tennessee. I did hear about them via some relatives though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Oh Lawd it was a Le Conte NAMing at 18z My take on the Models depiction for area's like Wise for instance are snowfall projections are too low, if the setup depicted is realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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