Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2023 Author Share Posted January 9, 2023 But here is what is crazy, most modeling(back when we were closely watching the "winter storm that wasn't" for the weekend), modeling had it doing the boomerang back into the coast. So, that clockwise rotation of the WAR must be stout. So, stuff like that interests me regardless of actual storms. However, if we get a storm near the coast, it could get pulled northwest. Lots of speculation in this post....but anyway, the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 For those of you who have not been tracking this weekends storm. The EPS/GEFS have had some hints of this but the CMC is the first global to confirm this solution. The Northern stream energy has been trending stronger and slower over the top of our bowling ball. This has allowed that piece to rotate around the trough and become the main player over the Eastern seaboard. We would like to see this trend continue a bit more so our storm goes negative tilt sooner and can throw more precip back our way. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2023 Author Share Posted January 9, 2023 LOL. From @WxUSAFin the MA forum: GGEM has a 4 county wide blizzard and gfs has a January hurricane. Your move, euro! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Euro with a lot more energy with our northern stream. Let's see where it goes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Doesn't turn negative in time but much better euro run. Northern energy becomes the dominant piece like cmc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2023 Author Share Posted January 9, 2023 The 12z Euro control has a huge storm just after 300. Foot plus totals for the eastern valley and lows in the single digits. Models are beginning to see the cold around the 22nd and 23rd. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 I was actually just looking at the control at H5 on southernwx and said hmmmm I bet Carvers has something to say about that…. thanks for all the good discussion the past few days. I have a sick family member in Duke Medical and am in Durham for a while this week. Not able to add a lot but trying to check in and see how things look periodically. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2023 Author Share Posted January 9, 2023 26 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I was actually just looking at the control at H5 on southernwx and said hmmmm I bet Carvers has something to say about that…. thanks for all the good discussion the past few days. I have a sick family member in Duke Medical and am in Durham for a while this week. Not able to add a lot but trying to check in and see how things look periodically. Hang in there, man! You all are in good hands at Duke for sure. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I was actually just looking at the control at H5 on southernwx and said hmmmm I bet Carvers has something to say about that…. thanks for all the good discussion the past few days. I have a sick family member in Duke Medical and am in Durham for a while this week. Not able to add a lot but trying to check in and see how things look periodically. Hate to hear about your sick family member. Duke medical is about as good as it gets………. Hang in there. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I was actually just looking at the control at H5 on southernwx and said hmmmm I bet Carvers has something to say about that…. thanks for all the good discussion the past few days. I have a sick family member in Duke Medical and am in Durham for a while this week. Not able to add a lot but trying to check in and see how things look periodically. Duke is absolutely wonderful. They did brain surgery on my mother and they are too notch. Best wishes and prayers. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I was actually just looking at the control at H5 on southernwx and said hmmmm I bet Carvers has something to say about that…. thanks for all the good discussion the past few days. I have a sick family member in Duke Medical and am in Durham for a while this week. Not able to add a lot but trying to check in and see how things look periodically. Best wishes and hopefully they and you are back home safe and sound soon. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 5 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I was actually just looking at the control at H5 on southernwx and said hmmmm I bet Carvers has something to say about that…. thanks for all the good discussion the past few days. I have a sick family member in Duke Medical and am in Durham for a while this week. Not able to add a lot but trying to check in and see how things look periodically. Thoughts & prayers! Hopefully they get well soon! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Models have really taken a step back tonight. Oh well. Looks like a minor NW event. This has been a rough one so far. Hoping we can atleast get one decent event before spring. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 hours ago, fountainguy97 said: Models have really taken a step back tonight. Oh well. Looks like a minor NW event. This has been a rough one so far. Hoping we can atleast get one decent event before spring. Tbh, I'll be happy with a dusting. Winter season has been anemic thus far. It'd be nice to give the dead grass and dormant trees a nice coat of paint for a couple days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2023 Author Share Posted January 10, 2023 Nina winters are not good for the mountains(Apps to be specific). I think I actually wrote back in June that the mountains would be much below normal in terms of snowfall. The storm track during Ninas is just lousy for NE TN and mountain communities when the cold checks up at the Plateau as it has for three straight winters. It is good for the Plateau and points west. Even Knoxville can sometimes get some snow during Nina's. The reason for this is that many storms cut through the eastern valley or the spine of the Apps. Now, some Nina winters are really good, and this one isn't over yet. As for the long range, it still looks the same as it did yesterday - pattern change inbound around the 23rd. How long does that hold? TBD. I think a good window is upcoming. As for the weekend, this system was really a one-foot-in-one-foot-out from the word go. That means modeling had it heading to Chicago or an Apps runner(both on many runs), even a couple of runs yesterday had that. To steal a line from a MA poster, when the system looks complicated, the least complicated solution is usually right. In this case, it was a cutter to Chicago and a frontal passage here. And that is the danger of tracking systems from 7 days out...things do change. However, it is pretty amazing that modeling can track things at that range now. I can remember when 4-5 days was the max and 7 days was nearly random. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2023 Author Share Posted January 10, 2023 From Robert at WxSouth on FBt: But all model guidance in the longer range has been gradually showing more and more of a big pattern change. It now looks like a complete reversal is coming to the overall Northern Hemisphere, the West will get to dry out and warm up, and the jet stream will be diving in the center and eastern part of the country by late January and lasting into early February. Long range large scale indices look to support the modeling on this pattern flip. So for now, we carry on and trudge through this warm rather boring and benign non-Winterlike pattern in the Southeast and MidAtlantic, with rain and thunderstorms every few days, followed by a brief cold snap and then repeating the process. But changes are in sight. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 NAM and RGEM look pretty good for NW flow on the 6z runs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 The 12z Nam surface reflectivity looks odd. No squall line with the front and a pretty anemic looking nwf behind. It could end up being right, but it just looks odd to me. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 19 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I was actually just looking at the control at H5 on southernwx and said hmmmm I bet Carvers has something to say about that…. thanks for all the good discussion the past few days. I have a sick family member in Duke Medical and am in Durham for a while this week. Not able to add a lot but trying to check in and see how things look periodically. Praying for you and your Family brother. I hope all goes well and for a speedy recovery. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2023 Author Share Posted January 10, 2023 On this morning's ensembles, the changes which will either permanently or temporarily alter the current pattern begin right around 270h or just prior. As we get closer to that timeframe, we should begin to see those changes manifest in operational modeling. The details will change 25x before we get to that time, but the 12z GFS has a good example of what "could" occur as a storm forms along the boundary of incoming cold air. Word of caution for those new to this, there is an old tenet....if you see a low in the Lakes the thermal profiles here won't hold snow easily. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2023 Author Share Posted January 10, 2023 What is interesting about the storm on the 22nd, it is very similar to the one coming in this weekend. Cutter w/ modeling trying to develop a slp at the southern edge of the attached cold front. Again, this feature will most assuredly change by 18z.....but I am a big fan of slp forming in the GOM if a cold front slows or becomes stationary south of us. Something to watch as we get back to a better period for tracking. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 15 minutes ago, Buckethead said: The 12z Nam surface reflectivity looks odd. No squall line with the front and a pretty anemic looking nwf behind. It could end up being right, but it just looks odd to me. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk Long range NAM is almost always too dry. In my experience at least. It used to be too wet but they over corrected it the other way. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 I was actually just looking at the control at H5 on southernwx and said hmmmm I bet Carvers has something to say about that…. thanks for all the good discussion the past few days. I have a sick family member in Duke Medical and am in Durham for a while this week. Not able to add a lot but trying to check in and see how things look periodically. Just now seeing this. Praying for you and your family. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 hours ago, Buckethead said: The 12z Nam surface reflectivity looks odd. No squall line with the front and a pretty anemic looking nwf behind. It could end up being right, but it just looks odd to me. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk The NAM doesn't go far enough out to capture the NW flow event yet. The other 12z models added to totals after hour 84. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2023 Author Share Posted January 10, 2023 LR 12z GEFS and GEPS both are very cold for this range. Hopefully they can hold on long enough to stay cold. If that trough pulls too far north, a ridge will build under it. The Weeklies had something like that...and the pattern eventually become variable overall. Anyway, that looks like our window. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Can't complain with this look 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2023 Author Share Posted January 10, 2023 Fountain has been reeling this in for the foothills and mountain communities. MRX w/ an early post about the weekend snow for the higher elevations. Good look for the mountains. As for MBY, I am gonna take my 6% and relish every bit of it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 I got NAM'd that 0z run. 4 to 5 inch bullseye imby. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 26 minutes ago, John1122 said: I got NAM'd that 0z run. 4 to 5 inch bullseye imby. You know that couldn't happen. KMRX say's you only have a 40-50% chance of an inch or more. lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2023 Author Share Posted January 11, 2023 Ensembles are decidedly colder overnight and this morning (just eyeballing it). The CFSv2 now has this 30 day timeframe from Jan25-Feb25. The PNA/EPO signal looks to be legit this time around. Precip is normal to above w/ this run. Remember w/ the last December cold shot that modeling lacked precip almost from when we initially saw the cold from afar. This is a bit different I think. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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