January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread

[fountainguy97]

For what it's worth the EURO overnight did return to the bowling ball solution which pulled the low further south. 
 

Didn't change snowfall much but that is a step in the right direction.

[Runman292]

16 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

18z GFS

Snow hole over Oak Ridge? Sounds accurate, lol.

[PowellVolz]

18z GFS

I’ll take… “what it’s like to live in the valley for 500 Alex”


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[fountainguy97]

12z has been an interesting suite for our weekend storm.  Chances are still zero but there has been a shift to more of a slider solution with a late coastal reformation.  ICON and CMC both are more of a slider with a coastal reformation too far out to sea. BUT there has been an increase in GEFS members that also show this but have the coastal close enough for some enhancement.

7 memebrs now have the second enhancement close enough to our area to prolong our event... 

 

But GFS remained the same with the more powerful northern dominant storm.  This comes down to which lobe of energy can take over.  Some of these gefs members are halfway decent for East TN. 

I don't think this is a big event for us but this coastal reform is the path for a more meaningful event.

 

The CMC is a weird in between but look how undefined that Low pressure is....

[Carvers Gap]

Fountain nails it.  BIG changes to the storm next weekend.  Temps are still no bueno, but that track was not Midwest cutter on the CMC.  IF we can get that storm below us, who knows.  We are exiting the timeframe where storms are lost on modeling.

[fountainguy97]

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Fountain nails it.  BIG changes to the storm next weekend.  Temps are still no bueno, but that track was not Midwest cutter on the CMC.  IF we can get that storm below us, who knows.  We are exiting the timeframe where storms are lost on modeling.

Yep and our upper air energy is a massive vortex with multiple pieces swinging around. It's still offshore for 3 days. How they shear apart and make their way across the US is not set in stone at all. Long way to go. 

[Met1985]

27 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Fountain nails it.  BIG changes to the storm next weekend.  Temps are still no bueno, but that track was not Midwest cutter on the CMC.  IF we can get that storm below us, who knows.  We are exiting the timeframe where storms are lost on modeling.

Yeah this has turned more into a backside upslope snow more than anything.  I know the border counties will be excited to see a nice 3 to 6 plus inches at this point in the season. But we might see some corrections to the south or further to the east... Hey at least we are tracking something. 

[snowmaker]

I hope East Tennessee can score on the upcoming system. I also look forward to hearing about long range. Especially as we get closer to that 18-20th period models should start picking it up more and more if we are going to trend back to winter type weather.☃️
 

[Carvers Gap]

The end of the 12z EPS run.

 

[*Flash*]

Per Carver's post on Friday, CFS laughs in the face of anyone hoping for a #wintercancel. Per Chris Bailey on kyweathercenter: "The more I look at the setup ahead, the more I think my winter forecast is going to be wrong. I was going for the earlier start than normal to spring. The upcoming pattern has more of a late winter vibe from February 2021. My winter analogs had the past two winters on the list. So far, the first part of winter has been a battle between the two. Both featured some second half of winter fun and games. Obviously, no one wants a repeat of what February of 2021 brought and I’m not saying that’s ahead. I’m saying the setup for a prolonged period of winter weather that lasts into early spring is showing up."

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Per Carver's post on Friday, CFS laughs in the face of anyone hoping for a #wintercancel. Per Chris Bailey on kyweathercenter: "The more I look at the setup ahead, the more I think my winter forecast is going to be wrong. I was going for the earlier start than normal to spring. The upcoming pattern has more of a late winter vibe from February 2021. My winter analogs had the past two winters on the list. So far, the first part of winter has been a battle between the two. Both featured some second half of winter fun and games. Obviously, no one wants a repeat of what February of 2021 brought and I’m not saying that’s ahead. I’m saying the setup for a prolonged period of winter weather that lasts into early spring is showing up."

Yeah, my much above normal temp forecast(for Feb) from June...in major jeopardy right now.  Exact opposite is on the table.

[fountainguy97]

18z gfs joins the "backside enhancement" group. Steeper trough. Don't see a surface reflection besides maybe a meso-low over in NC.

[jaxjagman]

On 1/6/2023 at 9:17 PM, Carvers Gap said:

Do you still read that site about Bering Sea teleconnections?  Have they mentioned any downstream cold later this month or next month?

Myself East Asia seems more easier to decipher

[Carvers Gap]

LC had a great write-up yesterday evening - very detailed w/ supporting ideas.  A little Cosgrove from last night:

The warm air may be around in the Eastern Seaboard communities until the start of the last week of January. If I am reading the "tea leaves" (numerical models) correctly, a Colorado/Trinidad type storm will establish an Arctic air mass across all but the West Coast states. Aside from temporary alterations, we would then be facing a cold-dominated period that will last until the end of February. After that sequence, a warmer March will be for real in all but southern Canada and parts of the Intermountain Region.

 

[jaxjagman]

On 1/6/2023 at 9:17 PM, Carvers Gap said:

Do you still read that site about Bering Sea teleconnections?  Have they mentioned any downstream cold later this month or next month?

For us in Mid Tn i use South Korea.Teleconnections factor in just as well and it's not 1 to 1 correlated meaning it can be wrong,but it does give you a hint of the pattern upcoming.In a couple days there is height rises in East Asia mean a blah pattern with height rises in the east but there is a trough at this time going through Mongolia into China,this would mean basically trough in the west rising heights in the east.So least to me it seems at this time the Euro could be slightly to fast with the pattern.But the pattern is 6-10 days,i always split it myself and go 8 days

 

[Carvers Gap]

Kind of fun to watch modeling begin to sniff out this pattern.  The 18z GEFS (and its much talked about warm temps and where is the cold in the LR everyone has been talking about?), well take a look at the temp anomalies for NA after 348.  The warmth vanishes - just gone.  That is a long way out there and still may not yet verify, but the model now reflects what the CMC is putting out.   That look is a setup for a major cold outbreak from the Rockies to the Apps.

[Met1985]

18 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Kind of fun to watch modeling begin to sniff out this pattern.  The 18z GEFS (and its much talked about warm temps and where is the cold in the LR everyone has been talking about?), well take a look at the temp anomalies for NA after 348.  The warmth vanishes - just gone.  That is a long way out there and still may not yet verify, but the model now reflects what the CMC is putting out.   That look is a setup for a major cold outbreak from the Rockies to the Apps.

Thank you! The bipolar that is on here currently is amazing.... This fits in line with a lot of the signals that we are seeing in the long range. From all three of the major model ensembles.  The dang eps looks fantastic in the long range. 

[jaxjagman]

Doubt we see a SSWE,winds decelerate and maybe displace it but its still a brick

[John1122]

The UKIE, Canadian and GFS all give my area 1-2 inches this Friday. Gonna hold out hope on it at least being a good snow in the air kind of time and hope it over performs here. 

I love winters where it's snowing often, even when it's not heavy snow. I've gotten quite a bit of snow the prior two winters and several winters in the 2010s but it's usually been from heavier events. 

We used to have 4 or 5 days out of a week where we'd get .5 to 1 inch in snow showery days. That doesn't happen nearly as often as it used to. 

I remember a time in the late 70s or early 80s where it snowed an half an inch to an inch every evening for something like 8 days in a row. 

[John1122]

Euro is probably better than the other models for my area. Not quite the 20 inch bomb from a few days ago but a solid 2ish inches. 

[Carvers Gap]

Happy Monday!  Admittedly, this is a cherry picked map from the GEFS Ext Jan8th.  I still do have a wary eye that the cold could dump into the West and hold there before modifying and heading eastward.  Why?  That is what SSW events(whether official or not) tend to produce.  That said, if modeling is correct(and it is moving forward w/ each run)...a secondary storm track would develop along the coast(maybe the primary track for a brief window).  You can actually see those storm tracks on this control run.  The big storm which produced the E TN snows was early Feb.  The real score would be a displaced TPV which heads eastward due to the MJO signal, and hits an active STJ.

[fountainguy97]

EPS really likes that reforming low. Not sure if it means anything for our area.

[Daniel Boone]

10 hours ago, John1122 said:

The UKIE, Canadian and GFS all give my area 1-2 inches this Friday. Gonna hold out hope on it at least being a good snow in the air kind of time and hope it over performs here. 

I love winters where it's snowing often, even when it's not heavy snow. I've gotten quite a bit of snow the prior two winters and several winters in the 2010s but it's usually been from heavier events. 

We used to have 4 or 5 days out of a week where we'd get .5 to 1 inch in snow showery days. That doesn't happen nearly as often as it used to. 

I remember a time in the late 70s or early 80s where it snowed an half an inch to an inch every evening for something like 8 days in a row. 

Those were the good ole day's.

[PowellVolz]

If my memory is correct, this year seems to be similar to 2015 if we get the cold February. Seems like 2015 was really cold to start January, caught a 2-3 week break and then had a rough February. I sometimes get 2015 and 2011 confused though.


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[PowellVolz]

Not that it will have anything to do with this coming weekend but our little clipper two weeks ago tracked further south than modeled.


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[Carvers Gap]

Man, I had kind of put that system to bed re: the weekend.  The 12z CMC has warning criteria snows for the mountains and advisory criteria for the Plateau.  The valleys are out of if for right now.  If the Euro goes w/ an inland runner on the tail end of the front(like the CMC), that might spark my interest.  As for now, just passing interest as we are about two weeks from the good stuff and this weekend is the only game in town..

[fountainguy97]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Man, I had kind of put that system to bed re: the weekend.  The 12z CMC has warning criteria snows for the mountains and advisory criteria for the Plateau.  The valleys are out of if for right now.  If the Euro goes w/ an inland runner on the tail end of the front(like the CMC), that might spark my interest.  As for now, just passing interest as we are about two weeks from the good stuff and this weekend is the only game in town..

There was a LOT of noise on the overnight EPS.  CMC on board is a huge step forward. if we can get this transition to happen quickly and cleanly it could really bump totals for ETN. Probably won't help the valley a ton.  Folks along the East Coast could have a "surprise" storm on their hands.

[Carvers Gap]

Somebody go get the keys from the 12z GFS.  It needs to catch a cab.  It has what looks like a tropical storm barreling towards the North Carolina coast around 200hours.  No kidding.  It is worth a look.  Cause we know that is going to verify.

[matt9697]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Somebody go get the keys from the 12z GFS.  It needs to catch a cab.  It has what looks like a tropical storm barreling towards the North Carolina coast around 200hours.  No kidding.  It is worth a look.  Cause we know that is going to verify.

That was what I was just saying! WTF the taxpayers are paying for this model? 

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, matt9697 said:

That was what I was just saying! WTF the taxpayers are paying for this model? 

It has a crazy big western Atlantic ridge (WAR) which is reversing flow over the Atlantic.  There is probably some feedback going on there w/ the WAR.  That system probably isn't 100% tropical in nature, but that is very rare(not sure I have ever seen it) to see a slp advance westerly towards the Carolina coast for hundreds of miles.