Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2023 Author Share Posted January 7, 2023 At 144, more energy has been kept south of the primary - middle of Arkansas instead of St Louis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2023 Author Share Posted January 7, 2023 This run is just more disorganized which almost tells me the Euro is stuck in purgatory - not knowing to drive a cutter or drive SE to the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2023 Author Share Posted January 7, 2023 At 186, the Euro has a stalled 997 low on the south end of Hatteras. Heading to bed. Might be classified as a slight synoptic improvement as the storm is closer to the coast(the secondary). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 5month old keeping us up tonight. 06gfs is cutting even more. We just can't get a southern track to save our lives this year. Safe to say 3rd year Nina's are not the move for snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 13 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Mine were fried! It has been my experience that hollies are nearly impossible to eradicate. I would think that the entire trunk and strongest branches will send out new shoots. Now, Japanese maples and crepe myrtles....they can die in that type of cold. I once saw a holly bush removed three feet deep by a backhoe. Two years later, the holly bush grew back through a crack in the pavement. Last year, I cut mine back to the ground during spring. They were four feet tall by the end of summer! But there will surely be less hardy varieties of plants that will be knocked out. I think if yours has made it 16 years, you are good. The ground here looks like it has been scalded by hot water. My yard was rough but this week the warmer temps have awakened the fescue. It’s as green as ever. At this rate mowing will be here in February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Is it right the long range forecast temps? That is the question but 50s & 60s till at least the 21st is unbelievable in January. At this rate we will be very + departure from average for January. Only a couple nights below freezing shown. This Nina is stinking it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 I honestly think we're looking at the 20th at least before we see a better and more average pattern in terms of temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I honestly think we're looking at the 20th at least before we see a better and more average pattern in terms of temps. not looking good so far, lol sorry for the double post but the edit to the original wouldn't embed the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 10 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I honestly think we're looking at the 20th at least before we see a better and more average pattern in terms of temps. Yea going need to start cutting grass again smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 And just to be clear I’m not giving up totally on next weeks bowling ball, it could still trend better or we could get some good upslope. For the above (wrt the 20th) I’m just talking in terms of the long wave pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 UKMET for the bowling ball FWIW: I'm not even looking at precip. type for that, but guessing it is elevation dependent. Ukie does seem to be digging a bitmore than 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2023 Author Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 hour ago, Matthew70 said: My yard was rough but this week the warmer temps have awakened the fescue. It’s as green as ever. At this rate mowing will be here in February. The greenest yard in my neighborhood(likely over seeded w/ rye) is brown. It is not uncommon for me to have to get an early mow by late Feb here, though. Most of that is day length driven - just gets more sun. I have a small hoop house which I put up in mid-February in order to grow cool season crops in my garden. Just looking at LR temps, modeling looks like it has for days. Looks like the return to winter could possibly begin around the 20th. Unfortunately,(very unfortunately) spring does not look warm at this point. Might be a very slow climb if Nino takes hold early. I actually like quick flips to spring. Last year, my growing season was pretty short due to temps not warming-up quickly here. I was looking at some garden photos on my phone....the last couple of years my garden has been put in the ground 2-3 weeks later than normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2023 Author Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: not looking good so far, lol sorry for the double post but the edit to the original wouldn't embed the picture. Several of my seasonal forecast ideas are going to work this year - LOL, but February not so much it looks like. Seasonal ideas are a bit of a crapshoot(requires a certain amount of luck), but I went w/ the past two years of Nina climatology to repeat. The good thing if this winter repeats, we should see at least one more cold shot into the forum areas(I am think a couple of periods of cold). I had February as much above normal......that is on extremely shaky ground. In fact, I might get the exact opposite. Oddly, November and December started the exact same way - warm start w/ cold eroding those warm starts as the month progressed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Yeah, one sort of meta-pattern I've thought about for the past few days is that the 1.5 week cool downs interspersed with the warmer periods seem to be later in the month since Oct. So it may even be like the 23rd IMO, before the next big front tosses us a change up. I also feel like the Oct cold snap was worse than the Nov. one. If that's the case this months one may be less impressive than the Dec one (it would be pretty hard for it to be worse lol) and the Feb one may be worse than the potential Jan one. All that of course implies the repeating pattern is legit. Some of that is almost wooly worm level on my part though lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2023 Author Share Posted January 7, 2023 The potential pattern change is still moving forward in time. As with the last cold shot, there was a ton of can kicking....but the pattern is now on global ensembles instead of just being limited to runs of the Weeklies. That is a very cold look. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 27 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The potential pattern change is still moving forward in time. As with the last cold shot, there was a ton of can kicking....but the pattern is now on global ensembles instead of just being limited to runs of the Weeklies. That is a very cold look. Glad there’s still a modicum of hope on the horizon. Crazy to think it’s just January 7. I keep living two weeks in the future in a pattern like this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2023 Author Share Posted January 7, 2023 32 minutes ago, *Flash* said: Glad there’s still a modicum of hope on the horizon. Crazy to think it’s just January 7. I keep living two weeks in the future in a pattern like this. I don't want to jinx it, but it looks like Jan 22-23rd is a fairly common way point on modeling. When it is on Weeklies products, I kind of have to guess at the pattern change as it sits in a 5d mean window. So, it is nice to see it showing up on ensembles. So far, it is holding in time. Interestingly, the -NAO is trying to show back up in modeling. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2023 Author Share Posted January 7, 2023 At the furthest extent of its reach, the 12z EPS looks pretty good at 500. Temps are still AN, but should switch quite quickly as Canada would refill with cold quite quickly. PNA/EPO ridge(which has yet to verify this winter), AN heights over the Davis Straits, and a mean trough over the East. This reminds me of two years ago when winter was meh...and Memphis got hammered in about this same timeframe. With strat warming underway, it should be noted that these patterns can switch on a dime...so proceed w/ caution. Let's reel it in.... addendum: I should be noted the transition to this look begins around Jan 15th w/ the pseudo winter storm. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: At the furthest extent of its reach, the 12z EPS looks pretty good at 500. Temps are still AN, but should switch quite quickly as Canada would refill with cold quite quickly. PNA/EPO ridge(which has yet to verify this winter), AN heights over the Davis Straits, and a mean trough over the East. This reminds me of two years ago when winter was meh...and Memphis got hammered in about this same timeframe. With strat warming underway, it should be noted that these patterns can switch on a dime...so proceed w/ caution. Let's reel it in.... addendum: I should be noted the transition to this look begins around Jan 15th. Yeah I just posted about the same thing in our forum. Great stuff and at least something to track even if it fails lol...but 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Yep it’s been warm to seasonal here but it is only January 7th. I have lived in Montgomery County my entire life, I have no doubt cold will return at some point with chances of winter weather. I think the back half of January into February we will see winter like weather return. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2023 Author Share Posted January 7, 2023 14 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah I just posted about the same thing in our forum. Great stuff and at least something to track even if it fails lol...but If that verifies, I think we see multiple things to track. So, I am just going to enjoy the next couple of weeks, watch for maybe an oddball storm in the meantime(maybe some high elevation snow next weekend...light). What will be interesting to see is if the storm next weekend just ushers in the new pattern, and we don't look back. The GFS has hinted at this on more than one occasion. The Euro control ends w/ a massive western ridge w/ the Arctic being unleashed into Canada. This would be a triumph of LR modeling as it has had this for a bit. If the SSW comes to fruition, it could wreck all of that or it could dump into the East due to the MJO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 57 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: If that verifies, I think we see multiple things to track. So, I am just going to enjoy the next couple of weeks, watch for maybe an oddball storm in the meantime(maybe some high elevation snow next weekend...light). What will be interesting to see is if the storm next weekend just ushers in the new pattern, and we don't look back. The GFS has hinted at this on more than one occasion. The Euro control ends w/ a massive western ridge w/ the Arctic being unleashed into Canada. This would be a triumph of LR modeling as it has had this for a bit. If the SSW comes to fruition, it could wreck all of that or it could dump into the East due to the MJO. Yeah just getting our source of cold back to cold would be a big win. We do a lot better when Canada is in the freezer. We don't need to be in the freezer but just have the cold spoke through to keep our chances for winter weather above average. I think we actually have a lot going for us in the upcoming weeks. Anything before that is just a bonus in my opinion. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Think like Jeff said days ago we probably have to wait.The SPV was weak into Nov/Dec then the strong trades set in and the SPV went into brick mode.Now the winds seemingly will slack up but the SPV still looks strong and more displaced,wish Berlin didnt kill that site.MJO could get good for spell but right now seemingly this will be a fast MJO BACK into the Maritime and WP,Doesnt this seem like the 2011-`12 winter here right now,we got cold in Dec and again into Feb but March if i recall right didnt you guys get a couple late season storms in the east?There was no SSWE during this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2023 Author Share Posted January 7, 2023 NE TN and W NC folks might want to take a look at the 18z GFS. That is a 98 redux right there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2023 Author Share Posted January 7, 2023 18z GFS 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2023 Author Share Posted January 7, 2023 Good example of a lee side low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: 18z GFS Yeah you see how the system stays in tact and much further south. The low actually drops south right across us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2023 Author Share Posted January 7, 2023 8 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah you see how the system stays in tact and much further south. The low actually drops south right across us. And it pops a weak inland runner in the Piedmont. That will work. Is it right? No idea. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: And it pops a weak inland runner in the Piedmont. That will work. Is it right? No idea. Yeah no kidding. We've not really seen any consistency once again from the models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2023 Author Share Posted January 8, 2023 The 18z GEFS has now joined the EPS and GEPS in the LR pattern change - and it is a pretty massive change at 500mb as other models have shown above. It was the last model to budge. Next item to address will be source regions for cold. The pattern would support discharge of cold air from high latitudes. It would be nice to get Siberian grade cold as an upgrade option - one click shopping from Amazon(we want the entire bundle subscription of widespread snow, cold, and a 2 year warrantee). 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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