January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread

[Carvers Gap]

Seems like modeling is settling on a bowling ball(Holston called that a few days ago) which enters the US around San Fran and just bulls its way across the country due east.  How far it drifts SE once past the MS River makes a HUGE difference.  The GFS transfers its energy to the SE coastline where it forms a stronger storm.  The CMC keeps the majority of the energy north w/ some energy transfer to the coast, but to late to help anyone outside of inland PA and NY.  When you look at the vorticity maps, there is very little difference between the two.  So, right now we are riding the line between "rain changing to snow showers"  or a high end mountain event w/ potential for lower elevation snows in E TN w/ just the slightest changes.  What changes you say?  Well, we need the storm to reform slightly more inland.  If so, it would be a boomer.  I am fairly conservative at this range.  We are going to see a lot of changes over the next 4-5 days.  

[fountainguy97]

wow to @Carvers Gap point about a crawling storm the 12z GEFS has significantly increased that solution. some bombs on it

If EURO and EPS also support this, then it is safe to say we at least have a pretty unanimous storm setup with the bowling ball. Historically these setups have dumped some of the largest totals across the SE.  A long way to go but we take our chances with this. Temps are a concern right now.

[8283 El Nino Baby]

Any hope for the plateau/middle Tennessee? All but yesterdays Euro 12Z seem to make this an east Tennessee event.

[snowmaker]

5 minutes ago, 8283 El Nino Baby said:

Any hope for the plateau/middle Tennessee? All but yesterdays Euro 12Z seem to make this an east Tennessee event.

I was wondering the same thing, not seeing much in play for west and middle Tennessee on this one. But maybe a chance for it too change? But I am even more interested in what happens after this potential storm and into late January into February as well.

[Carvers Gap]

25 minutes ago, 8283 El Nino Baby said:

Any hope for the plateau/middle Tennessee? All but yesterdays Euro 12Z seem to make this an east Tennessee event.

The Christmas storm trended from Savannah to Indianapolis, and that was after we had a thread on it(no offense meant to wurbus, just saying that is how quickly that changed).  At this range, I wouldn't rule anything out.  Energy transfer scenarios are complicated enough inside of 72 hours.  With 8 days to go, all options are on the table.  For now, the likelihood of a storm has increased, but even that isn't a certainty.  The Plateau could certainly be involved as it is as elevation.   For now if pressed, I would say a coastal (maybe strong) is the likely option...The next likely option is just slider that passes north of us, does a Miller B transfer, and is a blizzard for inland PA, NY and the New England states.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro is rolling.....While we wait here is a LR look at the GEPS.  Normally, I wouldn't worry about the last slide of an ensemble run.  However, since Weeklies(of every sort) are looking colder...I will be interested to see if the global models will follow suit.  That low in the Bering Sea... @jaxjagmanthat teleconnects to western ridging right?

 

[John1122]

The strength of the 50/50 low will tell the tale on the upcoming system. When it was stronger the Euro bombed us, when it was weaker, the Euro blanked us.

If it does happen and it's cold enough, there would be a heavy snow area that's virtually impossible to predict at this range because you have to nail the exact storm path to get it. It would be one of those 10 miles apart from bare ground to a foot possible scenarios.

[Carvers Gap]

Just eyeballing this as it comes ashore near the Bay Area, it looks slightly north and the flow slightly further east.   That makes me think this doesn't dig as far south as the 0z run did.  That also falls in line w/ the GFS/CMC looks.  We'll see.  It is about like reading somebody's palm at this point in the run.

[Carvers Gap]

@ 126 the 500vort map is not so much a vortex as it looks like the letter "v."  No other run, including the 0z has that look.  So, we are off to a wonky start.

[Carvers Gap]

@ 150 this is definitely north of the previous 0z run.  That may not be a bad thing if it actually takes a SE jog.  The 0z run never dug until it got off the coast.  

[Carvers Gap]

Yep, this one is going to cut to guess where....Indianapolis.  LOL.  Let's see if there is energy transfer.

[Carvers Gap]

At 168 it begins the SE jog which we have seen on other modeling.

[Carvers Gap]

Yep, that is nothing more than a cutter.  That run was really wonky from the word go when it reached the US coast.  At this range, I can't blame it.  But energy that lacks the look of a vortex....suspect right off the bat.  Anyway, this will cut and then form a secondary low well of the coast which will not impact meaningful weather here unless it pulls way back!  

[Daniel Boone]

We are really having trouble getting any meaningful 50-50 LP this Season. A problem for sure.  Those SST's there apparently the main culprit.

[Carvers Gap]

Definitely can see the pattern change in the LR now.  The HB block pattern, which will have lasted almost 5 weeks by that time, finally is displaced enough that the trough is slipping from the West towards the East.  Theres is plenty of mischief in the meantime as pieces of energy slip under the HB block.  Most cut, but if one doesn't.....IYKYK.  

[tnweathernut]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Definitely can see the pattern change in the LR now.  The HB block pattern, which will have lasted almost 5 weeks by that time, finally is displaced enough that the trough is slipping from the West towards the East.  Theres is plenty of mischief in the meantime as pieces of energy slip under the HB block.  Most cut, but if one doesn't.....IYKYK.  

Was probably a little early when looking at the possible threat for next weekend.  Doesn't mean it can trend back to something positive, but overall............. I'm encouraged we will find winter in the mid-south like we do almost every other year.  Just might have to wait an extra week or two before something materializes.

 

[Carvers Gap]

9 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Was probably a little early when looking at the possible threat for next weekend.  Doesn't mean it can trend back to something positive, but overall............. I'm encouraged we will find winter in the mid-south like we do almost every other year.  Just might have to wait an extra week or two before something materializes.

 

Yeah, I think we likely get a good three weeks somewhere between Jan25 and Feb 20th or so.  That is primetime so I am not complaining IF that is the window.  Honestly, ensembles are a bit quicker w/ the transition than the CFSv2.

[John1122]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

We are really having trouble getting any meaningful 50-50 LP this Season. A problem for sure.  Those SST's there apparently the main culprit.

Yep. The 50/50 was gone entirely that run on the Euro and it was a big ole nothing for us. 

[Jed33]

18z GFS with the backside NWF.

[jaxjagman]

5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z Euro is rolling.....While we wait here is a LR look at the GEPS.  Normally, I wouldn't worry about the last slide of an ensemble run.  However, since Weeklies(of every sort) are looking colder...I will be interested to see if the global models will follow suit.  That low in the Bering Sea... @jaxjagmanthat teleconnects to western ridging right?

 

Even if its right we'd still be talking several days to effect us any even after that time stamp,then we'd have to see what kind of teleconnections are showing up after.

[Matthew70]

Does anyone know if the Holly & evergreens that are brown & losing their leaves will come back?  I’ve never seen them look dead.  My whole neighborhood is wondering & in shock. The damage is significant. It’s going to be an expensive spring if they are dead.  I have 13’ Holly trees that are 16 yo old.  I can’t remove them myself. Not counting my new evergreen spruces I planted.  They were expensive. $99 a piece! 

[Carvers Gap]

34 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Does anyone know if the Holly & evergreens that are brown & losing their leaves will come back?  I’ve never seen them look dead.  My whole neighborhood is wondering & in shock. The damage is significant. It’s going to be an expensive spring if they are dead.  I have 13’ Holly trees that are 16 yo old.  I can’t remove them myself. Not counting my new evergreen spruces I planted.  They were expensive. $99 a piece! 

Mine were fried!   It has been my experience that hollies are nearly impossible to eradicate.  I would think that the entire trunk and strongest branches will send out new shoots.  Now, Japanese maples and crepe myrtles....they can die in that type of cold.   I once saw a holly bush removed three feet deep by a backhoe.  Two years later, the holly bush grew back through a crack in the pavement.   Last year, I cut mine back to the ground during spring.  They were four feet tall by the end of summer! But there will surely be less hardy varieties of plants that will be knocked out.  I think if yours has made it 16 years, you are good.  The ground here looks like it has been scalded by hot water.  

[Carvers Gap]

3 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Even if its right we'd still be talking several days to effect us any even after that time stamp,then we'd have to see what kind of teleconnections are showing up after.

Do you still read that site about Bering Sea teleconnections?  Have they mentioned any downstream cold later this month or next month?

[Carvers Gap]

30 day temp map by the 18z CFSv2.....

 

[John1122]

I didn't even realize there was a chance of snow tomorrow morning. It's supposed to be 33 here tonight but it's already down to 28.

[John1122]

GFS gives a very nice NW flow/back side event for the Eastern Rim, Plateau and Mountains, as well as parts of the E valley and SEKY/SWVA.

[Carvers Gap]

And the GFS w/ yet another solution as John notes.  Realistic set-up.

[Carvers Gap]

The 0z CMC goes cutter...but...it transfers waaaay south.  Then, a slp crawls(and I mean crawls) up the SE coast.  It eventually comes ashore and jogs nw inland.  That would be a significant upslope event for the mountains, and snow would be flying in the valleys.  Stall a storm out just northwest of Hatteras, and you have my full attention. 

[Carvers Gap]

As @John1122 noted, I also have a 30% chance of snow in the morning.  Yeah, I am watching the Euro roll - just a glutton for punishment.  At 108, slp is in a similar location over the Four Corners.  And yes, when lows go into the Four Corners, the Euro can have problems.  So far, it looks more realistic than 12z in terms of the shape of the storm.

[Carvers Gap]

At 117, this looks more like a bowling ball.  It may still cut, but that looks more like it might not.