Met1985 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Let me dig back through the Euro Weeklies and GEFS Ext to see what the precip anomalies are.... Seems like earlier you said that the extended was really dry but I know how quickly that can change.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 GEFS Ext has above normal precip over the TN Valley during the colder weeks, and it looks like a textbook setup w/ the most precip over middle TN...but pretty much the entire forum area is AN for precip though. Euro Weeklies look to have normal precip during its coldest "mean" timeframes..... FWIW, the Weeklies control is also very similar but slightly less extreme east of the MS. Its mean ensemble is about week later w/ a much more watered down look understandably since it is a blend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Have to like the signal we have here in the 7-10day range. Having the euro/EPS on our side is something we didn't have last time. Energy is coming onshore in 120hrs. This isn't really complete fantasy land. Having EPS/GEFS signal here is pretty legit. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 5 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Seems like earlier you said that the extended was really dry but I know how quickly that can change.... I may have! Ha! It is getting late, so I probably should save the rest of my comments/rudimentary analysis for tomorrow. About this time of night, it all runs together for me! These runs tonight look decent in terms of precip timing and colder temps. If I remember back in December, it was pretty obvious from the word "go" that cold snap was going to be problematic in re: to precip as we were just exiting drought conditions west of the Apps. Now, that cold control run above is definitely drier than the ensemble mean. That much cold would squash even the hardiest SER. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 Right now, I am just waiting for the 35d snow map for the GEFS EXT control......it should be fun. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 The CMC Weeklies ran tonight as well. They are substantially colder. Here is the last week of the month....The CMC Weeklies begin get cold right around the 20th. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 7 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Have to like the signal we have here in the 7-10day range. Having the euro/EPS on our side is something we didn't have last time. Energy is coming onshore in 120hrs. This isn't really complete fantasy land. Having EPS/GEFS signal here is pretty legit. Sorry to bury your comment w/ 1,000 posts of mine. Just bumping it so folks can see it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I may have! Ha! It is getting late, so I probably should save the rest of my comments/rudimentary analysis for tomorrow. About this time of night, it all runs together for me! These runs tonight look decent in terms of precip timing and colder temps. If I remember back in December, it was pretty obvious from the word "go" that cold snap was going to be problematic in re: to precip as we were just exiting drought conditions west of the Apps. Now, that cold control run above is definitely drier than the ensemble mean. That much cold would squash even the hardiest SER. Yeah too much cold is a bad thing as you well know. I think the rest of the season looks interesting to at least be interested in the pattern for the mid to long range unless something happens to mess that up. But as we both know these patterns have a mind of there own and can be fickle at there best. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 Sorry for the flurry of LR posts. Last post of the evening and a cherry picked one at that. GEFS Ext Control 35day snow maps(multiple storms with that...it isn't just one)... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Sorry to bury your comment w/ 1,000 posts of mine. Just bumping it so folks can see it.It seems like a lot of our good snows, one of the globals will just about nail it in the 7-10 day frame. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: Yeah too much cold is a bad thing as you well know. I think the rest of the season looks interesting to at least be interested in the pattern for the mid to long range unless something happens to mess that up. But as we both know these patterns have a mind of there own and can be fickle at there best. Yeah, amen to that.....and with the strat getting jostled....things can change. The good thing is that seasonal patterns and the MJO do provide good underpinnings. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 NE TN, SW VA, and W NC folks might want to take a look at the 0z CMC. overnight. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Overnight Ensembles: EPS MSLP members: H5 anomalies: GEFS MSLP members H5 anomalies: GEFS quite a bit more progressive and maybe that is the way of things in this current fast progressive flow? I would also say that there is more spatial spread among GEFS individual lows, even though that ensemble has fewer members than the EPS 0z EPS: 6z GEFS centered on the same time: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: NE TN, SW VA, and W NC folks might want to take a look at the 0z CMC. overnight. That was the official VA Creeper Trail weenie run of the year 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: That was the official VA Creeper Trail weenie run of the year You know the 6z GFS has that CMC solution now, just warmer. Euro was...meh! LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Actually I move the post from banter to here just so more people will be likely to see it. Please, no one put much stock in this and get let down if it doesn't happen 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 I don't know that I've ever seen anything over the 30" color contour outside of the Sierra or some random NAM run for LeConte If this holds together as a bowling bowl at the very least I bet we get one heck of a NAMing for someone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Actually I move the post from banter to here just so more people will be likely to see it. Please, no one put much stock in this and get let down if it doesn't happen Thing is, this has been there on several model runs for a while(maybe not that much). If anyone gets their hopes of for 52!!!! Well, they haven't been doing this long enough. LOL. DGEX worthy right there. Looks rates driven vs cold driven in terms of accumulations. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I don't know that I've ever seen anything over the 30" color contour outside of the Sierra or some random NAM run for LeConte If this holds together as a bowling bowl at the very least I bet we get one heck of a NAMing for someone. I can remember a couple. That huge NC/SC storm that never materialized was one. It was producing 4-5' right up to the event. They got nada! Snowmegadon had some big totals. @tnweathernutsent me a photo while I was driving in the mountains. I had to pull over in order to get enough service to get the photo...glad I was pulled over! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 The 6z GFS has the same storm as the CMC, but is eastward. That does not surprise me as it is the more progressive model. I would guess the Euro might be having some issues w/ holding energy back...but who knows, that might have been exactly why its run was so big yesterday or so meh overnight. I need to look at the ensembles more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 Just looking at ensembles, the 0z EPS has this for the E TN and W NC mountains and also portion of SW VA and TRI. Their ensembles probably support it better than the GEPS. LONG way to go, but those were good trends for mountain communities. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Looks rates driven A snapshot of just one 6 hr period on that run: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 I know this is typically banter material but it’s too good to hide from everyone. . 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 I don't think that's banter. Cool to look at! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 58 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Overnight Ensembles: EPS MSLP members: H5 anomalies: GEFS MSLP members H5 anomalies: GEFS quite a bit more progressive and maybe that is the way of things in this current fast progressive flow? I would also say that there is more spatial spread among GEFS individual lows, even though that ensemble has fewer members than the EPS 0z EPS: 6z GEFS centered on the same time: The one thing modeling has been pretty consistent w/ is a banana high over the top of the SLP. That essentially traps that storm along the coast. I am tempted to say that a storm now looks likely, but only tempted. We all know what can happen w/ storms at this range. Also, we are entering the timeframe where storms are lost(d5-7). If this thing is still there Sunday, it might be worth seeing if the potential is there to reel it in. Another characteristic which I have seen across modeling is the storm going negative tilt, turning due north, and then turning northwest for a brief time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 And it wouldn't be a weather forum if we didn't talk about the unofficial/official SSW occurring in modeling. The GFS splits the strat at 10, 30, and 50mb. I don't know about the wind reversal piece. I am wondering if we actually need to redefine an SSW. When we see a fairly concentric lobe of x heights split into two lobes...that is a split in my book. And to paraphrase a great scientist....Amy Butler noted(did NOT say there was a split coming) that it is rare to have a split during this phase of the QBO and maybe Nina(?). However, those rare splits resulted in some pretty significant cold at mid-latitudes. That strat warming is likely playing extreme havoc w/ LR products right now IMHO. Lots of flip flopping in modeling. So, to me, that means we are looking at 50/50 as to whether this comes to NA. Then is is 60/40 as to whether it drops into the West and nation's mid-section. I am wary when I see cold at LR and see strat split occurring...I have been burned more than once with that set-up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 12z GFS and CMC both with similar evolutions. Very marginal NWFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 Both the CMC and GFS at 12z have the storm which is 8 days away, and understandably we are going to see lots of different variations at this range. That said, the 12z GFS, which doesn't have a big clown map for us, stalls the slp over eastern NC and VA for days - days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 That banana high, if real, is going to trap that storm and it may just crawl or even stall out. Once east of us. The mountains, especially, may be looking at a high end event if it does that. Still, a long ways to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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