January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread

[fountainguy97]

Weather.us has a cool EURO ERA5 archive back to 1950.

I have also found the snowfall records here to be absolutely pitiful. This is snow depth so likely on the low side of what actually fell. 

[Icy Hot]

Snowflakes that night were shaped like chicken feathers. We couldn't believe what we were seeing.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Not much of substance to add this morning other than silly MJO RMM plots:

It just struck me how, if nothing else, I don't know that I've ever seen a forecast aim for 2 with that amplitude. I'm just used to the red arrow being the only way the RMMs show that amplitude, lol. 

OP Euro RMM not as interested. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

For some of you SWVA folks @BuCoVaWx   @BlunderStorm

Some of the Hi res 12z models are giving you some snow early Sat AM. 

As is the custom I have chosen the model that shows the most snow (RGEM) and chosen the prettiest graphic presentation of said snowfall (COD)

[Carvers Gap]

Greenville/Spartanburg radar is going to be down a month if social media is accurate.  That means western NC folks will be using MRX.  With the shadow of the mountains, the high elevation folks may just have to eyeball it.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro is going to be fun for the bowling ball system next week, lol 

[Carvers Gap]

Boom.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

EPS:

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here are the individual low centers on the EPS:

[Met1985]

17 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Here are the individual low centers on the EPS:

This is very encouraging especially with the Euro and the eps latching onto it. But at this range it's still in clown range in my opinion. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, Met1985 said:

But at this range it's still in clown range in my opinion. 

Yep. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Meteocentre now has the Euro again, so we can compare the 98 storm to this one with the same color schemes:

 

98

upcoming pattern:

 

I wish I could get em side by side, but I can't. 

[John1122]

A 20 inch bullseye right over me? What could possibly go wrong??

[Vol4Life]

9 minutes ago, John1122 said:

A 20 inch bullseye right over me? What could possibly go wrong??

I always like your odds!

[Vol4Life]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

 

Too bad winter is over….lol!!

[Carvers Gap]

And in the LR...The Euro Weeklies looks quite chilly with each passing week.  I will have an update on that later.  One thing on ensembles this evening, the trough out west vanishes about d14(poof!).  The Euro control has a fairly stout NAO at the end.  What I am beginning to think will happen is a classic phase 8 MJO look.  Remember the MJO is moving very slowly and add in the lag....cold look in the LR (weeks 3-4 and maybe 5-6).  The CFSv2 just has wave after wave of cold air beginning in a couple of weeks.  Good trends this afternoon after a meh overnight suite.  

[Met1985]

40 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

And in the LR...The Euro Weeklies looks quite chilly with each passing week.  I will have an update on that later.  One thing on ensembles this evening, the trough out west vanishes about d14(poof!).  The Euro control has a fairly stout NAO at the end.  What I am beginning to think will happen is a classic phase 8 MJO look.  Remember the MJO is moving very slowly and add in the lag....cold look in the LR (weeks 3-4 and maybe 5-6).  The CFSv2 just has wave after wave of cold air beginning in a couple of weeks.  Good trends this afternoon after a meh overnight suite.  

Keep is up to date on the Weeklies bud. Im intrigued. 

[Carvers Gap]

Considering the bleak look from several days ago...we have traded in our Yugo for an F150.   Basically we are leaving a pattern that just kind of took us around town, and at times didn't run at all...for a pattern which is steady and something you can work with.

Key takeaways from Euro Weeklies:

1.  Developing NAO late in Feb as the run ends.  Why lead off w/ something way out there?  It fits NAO climatology where NAOs return.  It implies spring will be delayed.

2.  The HB block is now on the clock.  Within a couple of weeks, we are transitioning quickly to something else.  What is that something else?  See below....

3.  Pattern after that will feature a very November-ish pattern where cold settles into the Mountain West and spread eastward in waves.  It is not without some warmth, but hey...we live in the South.  We are gonna have some warm days during winter.  

4.  The SER is going to be present, but gets beat down at times. With as much cold on the map in early Feb...we might need a bump from that feature.

5.  Beginning the 20th through almost the end of February - base seasonably cold pattern w/ variability.

6.  Base warm pattern until the 20th w/ storms cutting under the block.

7.  Source region for cold is less maritime and more Canadian or Arctic in nature as the run progresses.

8.  This run fits nicely w/ the CFSv2 run from today and yesterday.

9.  Nice look late in the third week in January into the fourth week w/ EPO ridge and increasing cold. First and second weeks of February are the core of the cold shot....but it never really leaves, just moderates to normal.

Is it right?  We will find out....

[Shocker0]

19 hours ago, BNAwx said:

Outside of March ‘93, February’98 is probably my favorite winter weather event.  I lived just north of Cookeville at the time and remember snow mixing with the rain late afternoon and then changing to all snow by dark.  An unexpected foot of snow is always nice.  

 

We got almost three feet of (mostly unexpected) snow from that one in Southeast Kentucky (McCreary County). No power for two weeks and no school for three weeks. The National Guard had to come in to clear trees due to the weight of the snow. I believe they were only calling for 2-4" tops after it switched over from rain, but it switched way early. I also read where motorists were stranded on I-40 up Monterey Mountain in TN where they ended up with around 15"

[Silas Lang]

6 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

 

I don't know how much this plays a part, but it seems pretty common to get a storm on MLK day weekend. We had snow on the ground last year at this time. 

[PowellVolz]

Looks like the Euro stole my jar of holiday shine.


.

[Carvers Gap]

5 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Looks like the Euro stole my jar of holiday shine.


.

GEF Ext control got into it as well......I think it is a hair to quick.  This is similar to some of the looks showing up in the weeks 3-4.  There are still some work looks as well.  But the "holiday shine" look is more fun to look at!!!   LOL

 

[Carvers Gap]

GEFS Ext (control)...check this out.  Way out there so huge grains of salt, especially since it is a control run.  We have been talking about the MJO disconnect on modeling.   Something is gonna have to give.  Well, I hope this is the "give."  That has both an Alaskan and NAO block.  I am NOT saying this is going to happen, but that would make the cold in December feel like a walk at the beach.

 

[Matthew70]

6 hours ago, John1122 said:

A 20 inch bullseye right over me? What could possibly go wrong??

Remember sharing is caring!

[Carvers Gap]

Still conflicting signals out there about where this heads, but modeling seems (today) to be adding the potential for a pretty serious cold outbreak in weeks 3-4, especially weak 4.  That timeframe is fraught w/ forecasting danger!  So take all of this with huge grains of salt(boulders if necessary).  There is a lot on the table right now in terms of medium range tracking and LR modeling.  Models are juggling quite a bit.  

[Met1985]

15 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

GEF Ext control got into it as well......I think it is a hair to quick.  This is similar to some of the looks showing up in the weeks 3-4.  There are still some work looks as well.  But the "holiday shine" look is more fun to look at!!!   LOL

 

This looks a lot like the cold shot we just received during Christmas.  I'd like less cold and a more stable pattern but I mean beggars cannot be choosers....

[Carvers Gap]

Cosgrove

1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

This looks a lot like the cold shot we just received during Christmas.  I'd like less cold and a more stable pattern but I mean beggars cannot be choosers....

I thought the same.  It would fit the repeating pattern that you, Boone, and Holston have been kicking around.  The GEFS EXT ensemble is much less cold...but still cold for an ensemble at this range.  I know you know this...but I like looking at the control just to see what a non-washed-out member would look like.  I was like, "Wow."  The run is still ongoing.  It is colder than the map above.  Right now, I think trying to get the timing of any outbreak is going to be tough.  The window(range of dates) for the outbreak is roughly Jan25-Feb10.  It could still go poof or it could get crazier.  I have always felt like that range of dates has held some of our best winter weather during my lifetime.  We will find out soon if the cold snap in December was winter's opening act or just its only act!

[Carvers Gap]

7 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

This looks a lot like the cold shot we just received during Christmas.  I'd like less cold and a more stable pattern but I mean beggars cannot be choosers....

Let me dig back through the Euro Weeklies and GEFS Ext to see what the precip anomalies are....

[Met1985]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Cosgrove

I thought the same.  It would fit the repeating pattern that you, Boone, and Holston have been kicking around.  The GEFS EXT ensemble is much less cold...but still cold for an ensemble at this range.  I know you know this...but I like looking at the control just to see what a non-washed-out member would look like.  I was like, "Wow."  The run is still ongoing.  It is colder than the map above.  Right now, I think trying to get the timing of any outbreak is going to be tough.  The window(range of dates) for the outbreak is roughly Jan25-Feb10.  It could still go poof or it could get crazier.  I have always felt like that range of dates has held some of our best winter weather during my lifetime.  We will find out soon if the cold snap in December was winter's opening act or just its only act!

Yeah I definitely like the repeating pattern into February.  I think this February will act much different than people think because of the waning Nina and because we have been in this cold, warm, cold phase since September basically. And I think heading into March and into early spring is a toss up really. We could see some real extremes this spring season. I like the Weeklies and the ensembles for the most part. The jet is absolutely roaring right now. It's been fascinating watching the pattern this season because there really hasn't been a dominant pattern that has taken shape besides the pac jet being a thorn in our side.