January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread

[Carvers Gap]

Now, to the matters at hand...January weather.  The 6z GFS(who knows if it is right), continues to show potential for snow east of the MS and even to the EC itself.  The 0z CMC and the Euro(to some extent) reflect this in the d7-10 range.  They are thread-the-needle looks, but do reflect the influence of the HB block.  Hey, if we are going to have a block which is bottling up the cold...maybe we can at least benefit from the suppressed tracks which are plentiful on today's runs so far.

[Carvers Gap]

Here is the 0z CFSv2 progression this morning which is a break from recent runs.  It flips around a lot, so beware!  That said, both the Euro Weeklies and CFSv2 (for now!) reasonably reflect their own MJO projections.   But is it right?  We will find out I guess.

 

[*Flash*]

Yikes! Good to know that winter is over and that I don't have to worry about checking forums the next few months.  In all seriousness, Carver, we all appreciate you. Telling it as it is objectively with reasonable pathways to hope is partly what makes this forum an upgrade from others tailored to more subjective banter. 

[matt9697]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Here are the last three winters including this one.....Not sure about your location(these maps always have discrepancies and there are definitely some areas which do better than others which smoothing covers), but many(lower elevation middle and west TN) were close to or above their seasonal norms for the two snow seasons prior to this one.  North of I-40, they should be near seasonal norms in the same areas (up to this point in the season).  And that snow didn't just fall around Christmas.  So, I disagree in general.  I am sure there are exceptions, and maybe your local was one of those.  E TN, especially SE E TN, would reflect that comment more than middle and western areas.  

 

 

Nice maps and I do agree, we have had snow the past two seasons and this one as well. I was speaking in reference to the chatter, not only in here but other boards that indicate that it is eventually going to be more seasonal again, only to arrive at that future time to find out that some indice' didnt pan out so that was the reason why we had six weeks of warmth. I know if we dont have a pattern change my area is going to have issues with any more rain. 

[Carvers Gap]

And I sort of get the frustration with having a great start to winter only to see AN heights quickly supplant those cold temps. Just be glad you all don’t live in some areas of the coastal MA and Northeast.  It snowed in Alabama before it snowed there.  
 

Time will tell if the winter goes full fizzle.  One can make the case either way.  We just don’t know in early January.  Ya’ll might not want to look at my seasonal forecast from June re: February.  I actually think I will possibly bust for Feb.  Nina winters are often front loaded, but some really good ones came back.  I think there is a decent chance this one does.  However, as Jeff noted, sometimes cold sources have issues w reloading w such a severe and early cold snap.
 

Thanks, Flash. All of you all make the site a great place.  I say this often, but it is a huge deal to have our own forum - all of TN, southern KY, northern MS, northern AL, eastern Arkansas, SW VA, and also the mountain communities of western NC who participate.  There is a lot of knowledge here.  The microclimate discussions are exceptional.  It is a great wx community.

[Stovepipe]

10 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Pna is getting overwhelmed by the jet. If you want to know the honest truth, winter is over for us. Too many factors that supports that. I know it's premature say that, but that's imo. Last winter we had more of an east based lean in la niña but this year is central to west based. A totally different animal. Let's see how close I am once mid March is here

[Holston_River_Rambler]

It's definitely going to be interesting to watch modeling around the 10th when the MJO RMMs show it finally kicking along into more favorable phases. I suspect we get a big SOI drop around the 10th as well. Mean EPS plots show some nice subsidence over Darwin around that time:

OP GFS:

 

 

 

[*Flash*]

29 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

It's definitely going to be interesting to watch modeling around the 10th when the MJO RMMs show it finally kicking along into more favorable phases. I suspect we get a big SOI drop around the 10th as well. Mean EPS plots show some nice subsidence over Darwin around that time:

OP GFS:

 

Yeah, I'm still optimistic we'll see some fun 'n games in February at the very least. Just don't mention SOI around Webber.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

7 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Just don't mention SOI around Webber.

I was actually thinking about that as I typed that out lol. I think maybe people have tried to use it as some sort of guaranteed snow index in the past, IDK. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z CMC w/ a nice look just around 200 for the middle and western areas of the forum.  The 12z GFS has a lot of looks as well including a Nor'Easter for the cities of the Northeast.   Good suite so far.

[Carvers Gap]

CMC.  Correction, around 192.  That is a good look w/ HP sitting over the top.  

[Carvers Gap]

Takeaway  so far from the 12z suite(Euro on deck):

There are systems to track, and plenty of them.  Most are sitting d7+ so plenty of time to iron out details.  Modeling does seem to be catching-up to the MJO phase now - very loosely. 

@tnweathernut, remind me how the big snow in JC occurred.  I always forget.  It seems like that was a marginal event as well.  

[Carvers Gap]

I highly doubt modeling has this nailed down yet(oldy but goody phrase).  Seems like we are seeing northern stream energy cut under the HB block.  Some solutions phase east of us.  Some are completely northern stream driven which drop to our west and cut under us.  The big storm confluence is to our east, though the GFS does have a big system in la la land which is more of a Miller A.  I will check the run-to-run differences in terms of temps.  What I am interested in seeing is whether modeling is cooling off in the medium range.  It looks like it just glancing, but can't be sure until I pull that map up.

[matt9697]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

I highly doubt modeling has this nailed down yet(oldy but goody phrase).  Seems like we are seeing northern stream energy cut under the HB block.  Some solutions phase east of us.  Some are completely northern stream driven which drop to our west and cut under us.  The big storm confluence is to our east, though the GFS does have a big system in la la land which is more of a Miller A.  I will check the run-to-run differences in terms of temps.  What I am interested in seeing is whether modeling is cooling off in the medium range.  It looks like it just glancing, but can't be sure until I pull that map up.

Yea, looks like this run of the models was a little more hopeful, course I dont go near as in depth as you guys, appreciate all the good information 

[Carvers Gap]

This is the GFS 500mb vorticity gif for the entire run.(It is the GFS at range...tread lightly).  Notice the vortices rotating under the HB block.  The track slowly shifts southward and forces storms to dig.  AAgain, it is apparent that with so many moving pieces....it is highly likely any one solution is correct at this point.  I am just pointing out that the trend is to dig a system over the SE or the SE coast.  I am also attaching the 12z CMC run which shows similar tendencies.   You can actually see the vortices rotating around the HB block.  That is a more traditional HB look than we have seen on modeling recently.

 

[tnweathernut]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Takeaway  so far from the 12z suite(Euro on deck):

There are systems to track, and plenty of them.  Most are sitting d7+ so plenty of time to iron out details.  Modeling does seem to be catching-up to the MJO phase now - very loosely. 

@tnweathernut, remind me how the big snow in JC occurred.  I always forget.  It seems like that was a marginal event as well.  

Which big snow?  98?  If so, that was an ULL that just sat and spun over the mountains for hours upon hours...............  marginal temps, in fact the NWS had us as 1 inch of snow, changing to rain and highs in the low 40's.  Sat at 32-33 and wound up with 30+"

[jaxjagman]

4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

It's definitely going to be interesting to watch modeling around the 10th when the MJO RMMs show it finally kicking along into more favorable phases. I suspect we get a big SOI drop around the 10th as well. Mean EPS plots show some nice subsidence over Darwin around that time:

OP GFS:

 

 

 

Still shooting for the mid month.MJO gets out of the WP,Pacific Jet retracts,least we sould get out of the crud for awhile

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro indeed has a storm just after 200.  For southwest VA, that run was decent...It is worth mention as this is ten days out and other modeling has it.  IMHO, the floor for this window is obviously nada.  There is a pretty high ceiling.  They system cuts southeast from St Louis, through middle/west TN towards the SC Piedmont, and off shore of Savanah in almost a straight line.  Welcome to funky blocking tracks.  Long way to go.  Here are the slides just because there is no other game in town.  One key component of several of the runs at 12z is HP over the top.  This is a great example of how a pattern can have AN heights, but the details are missed by the long wave looks at long range.  The mean ridge is in the East, but weakness is over coastal SE.

 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

The CFSv2 is now honking that this pattern will not reset after the potential big storm.  The heat will rebound, but the heights are shown to be ejected out of HB.  That opens the door for the trough to slide eastward and the much talked about PNA ridge goes nuts later this month.  Some pretty major changes today by that model.  Is it right and will the trends hold on a highly variable model?  We will see.

The 12z EPS is seeing something as it likely has members which are moving the cold eastward.  Its ensemble also pushed the HB block out.  It is difficult to tell if it resets or goes to something new.  Judging by this look, there are a couple of possibilities. A faint phase 8-1-2 there?  Maybe.  Is it right?  We will see.

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

@tnweathernut, remind me how the big snow in JC occurred.  I always forget.  It seems like that was a marginal event as well.  

If anyone wants to take a stab at comparisons I made a gif of the radar from that storm (late Jan 1998) and the H5 pattern:

 

[John1122]

11 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

If anyone wants to take a stab at comparisons I made a gif of the radar from that storm (late Jan 1998) and the H5 pattern:

 

At the time, that was a heartbreakers of a system to watch and be so close to such a monster.  Then it happened here a few weeks later and the power was off for a week. Still an awesome event.  

[Jed33]

Is there a snowfall map from that event? I would love to see how it played out around here. Judging by the radar, there was some precip here but I’m not sure how much accumulation there was

[John1122]

9 minutes ago, Jed33 said:

Is there a snowfall map from that event? I would love to see how it played out around here. Judging by the radar, there was some precip here but I’m not sure how much accumulation there was

Nashville is pretty good about putting out maps. MRX doesn't really seem to have them and their records are exceptionally inaccurate regarding snow. Their official record lists no snow in the Tri-Cities from the event. It lists 2 inches in Morristown. 

[PowellVolz]

3 weeks before our last cold snap, we had no idea what was coming. Winter is never over until it is. I picked up 8” in March after weeks of AN temps.


.

[Jed33]

27 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Nashville is pretty good about putting out maps. MRX doesn't really seem to have them and their records are exceptionally inaccurate regarding snow. Their official record lists no snow in the Tri-Cities from the event. It lists 2 inches in Morristown. 

Yes I have come to realize that over the years about them. It’s unfortunate too, it would be nice to compare it to possible upcoming storms, in this pattern, or any pattern. However, with the data so unreliable, it’s not possible.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

Nashville is pretty good about putting out maps. MRX doesn't really seem to have them and their records are exceptionally inaccurate regarding snow. Their official record lists no snow in the Tri-Cities from the event. It lists 2 inches in Morristown. 

What is crazy, Kingsport got almost nothing - maybe an 1" or 2".  I got into work the next morning, and a friend of mine called in sick(pre mass cell phone ownership) who lived in JC.  He said he wasn't coming into work in Kingsport for 4-5 days, because of the damage done to his house.  By the time I heard this, the ground was bare in Kingsport.  We thought he was pulling our legs until news footage game out of Johnson City.  They got smashed.  I am not sure Sullivan got too much snow from that one.  Although, we had another similar event maybe the year prior or year after where we got slammed and JC did not.  JC got the change over due to rates, and we had a lot of mix.  In just this one case, that might be a legit observation from TRI.  But as you and I have noted and documented, the snow record during the 90s has been tampered with - no other nice way to say it.  For either Jan or Feb 96, they had(hope that is fixed now) missing data for a major storm.  I actually found their map that they had made, and they wouldn't use it to update the missing data.  That conversation occurred many years ago.  What happened served to depress our snowfall totals during the 90s.  

 

@Holston_River_Rambler, awesome radar!

[Carvers Gap]

Modeling is definitely sensing the MJO d10+, at least on the 12z GEPS.  Phase 1 is textbook BN heights stretching from Montana to the Southeast.

 

[John1122]

44 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

What is crazy, Kingsport got almost nothing - maybe an 1" or 2".  I got into work the next morning, and a friend of mine called in sick(pre mass cell phone ownership) who lived in JC.  He said he wasn't coming into work in Kingsport for 4-5 days, because of the damage done to his house.  By the time I heard this, the ground was bare in Kingsport.  We thought he was pulling our legs until news footage game out of Johnson City.  They got smashed.  I am not sure Sullivan got too much snow from that one.  Although, we had another similar event maybe the year prior or year after where we got slammed and JC did not.  JC got the change over due to rates, and we had a lot of mix.  In just this one case, that might be a legit observation from TRI.  But as you and I have noted and documented, the snow record during the 90s has been tampered with - no other nice way to say it.  For either Jan or Feb 96, they had(hope that is fixed now) missing data for a major storm.  I actually found their map that they had made, and they wouldn't use it to update the missing data.  That conversation occurred many years ago.  What happened served to depress our snowfall totals during the 90s.  

 

@Holston_River_Rambler, awesome radar!

 

I wasn't sure. MRX horrid record keeping means you never know. 

They list my area and Scott Co with a trace of snow total for February 1998. 

This is the Nashville NWS map and one from a news station in Kentucky. The one from Kentucky doesn't have its pink far enough south and west. The whole Northern Plateau was 15+ inches, the Nashville map cuts off just west of me. 

MRX seems to not acknowledge this event in its data but they did at one time in their significant weather events. I just can't find those any more. 

[Carvers Gap]

Both the 18z CFSv2 and GFS EXT depict a very cold continent by the end of the month which originates in a step-down pattern beginning about mid-month.  And this a 30 day snapshot....keep in mind that the CFSv2 has a cold bias.  Just interpreting its 500mb anomalies - intermittent SER and cold shots direct from the Arctic and/or Montana.  I will try to update the GEFS EXT later.  It is still running.  Are they right?  We will find out soon.

[BNAwx]

Outside of March ‘93, February’98 is probably my favorite winter weather event.  I lived just north of Cookeville at the time and remember snow mixing with the rain late afternoon and then changing to all snow by dark.  An unexpected foot of snow is always nice.