PowellVolz Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Was that the year that cities like Jackson, MS, Birmingham, AL and places south of Atlanta got more snow that the TN Valley in general?I don’t 100% remember the year but I remember what you are talking about. Atlanta was a disaster that afternoon. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 These are the 12z d10-15 global ensemble temp anomaly maps. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 6 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I don’t 100% remember the year but I remember what you are talking about. Atlanta was a disaster that afternoon. . I love it Powell…you’re the historian that always remembers the events, but not the date/year. It’s like me with people. I can remember faces, but I’m pretty terrible with names! Lol! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Incredibly cold 12z operational GFS run. When you see it, w/ a warm bias, flip cold...time to take notice. Yeah, with whatever tinkering they did with it to correct it's somewhat cold bias they overtinkered, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 The Euro Weeklies are pretty awesome. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 37 minutes ago, matt9697 said: Was that the year that cities like Jackson, MS, Birmingham, AL and places south of Atlanta got more snow that the TN Valley in general? I believe it snowed from New Orleans and Houston to Charleston, SC while we were dry and frigid. It was a 2 week spell nearly as cold as Christmas week that just passed. I prefer my EPO driven cold of the 2014-15 variety. It spurred two weeks of brutal winter in late February and early March. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 Man, the Euro Weeklies control -NAO...wow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Man, the Euro Weeklies control -NAO...wow. You guys are killing me I am trying to finish a huge paper on the Purdue Pharma and their creation of the Opioid Crisis but I keep coming back here lol 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 Sum of the 46d run of the Euro Weeklies....temps seasonal to BN(BN after the 23rd) and precip AN. We take that combo and run with it if it verifies. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 You guys are killing me I am trying to finish a huge paper on the Purdue Pharma and their creation of the Opioid Crisis but I keep coming back here lol I assume you’ve seen “Dope Sick”? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 The GFS at range so take from that what it is, but it shows the potential of the pattern everyone has been discussing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Not a bad overnight Euro either, at least for higher elevations: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 Both the 6z GFS and 0z Euro have good passes for the system on the 25th/26th - Miller A. The 0z Euro actually takes the low road for the system on the 22nd/23rd. Not sure that will verify, but that system is still on the table as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 FWIW, the 6zGFS has another system late in its run as well. So, modeling is beginning to "see" the potential for winter weather. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 It is worth noting that the 6z GFS was quite cold for that run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Both the 6z GFS and 0z Euro have good passes for the system on the 25th/26th - Miller A. The 0z Euro actually takes the low road for the system on the 22nd/23rd. Not sure that will verify, but that system is still on the table as well. Yeah looks like models are picking up on some noise for those two. First system doesn't have much cold air to work with. Second one is the higher percentage but both are on the table. Nice to see all models hinting around for that timeframe. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 hour ago, fountainguy97 said: Yeah looks like models are picking up on some noise for those two. First system doesn't have much cold air to work with. Second one is the higher percentage but both are on the table. Nice to see all models hinting around for that timeframe. And I think the next couple of systems after that will also need to be watched as we head into the first week of Feb. Then we have possibly a two week warmup and more cold to end Feb and begin March. This is a similar cold/warm pattern to the past three months in terms of frequency although the setup is much different. With Nino starting to potentially flex and shortening wavelengths, there is a lot of flux in trying to find winter window during the next 6-8 weeks. Modeling is all over the place after the first week of Feb. I will say LR modeling has been decent for this current pattern shakeup. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 While the 12z GFS is still cutter city, it is worth noting that the 12z CMC has not one(but two) ice events for E TN north of I-40. There is wrap around snow with each system. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 You can definitely tell the CMC is feeling the cold air mess pressing southward. The first system takes the low road as the 0z Euro did and the second system tries to cut but ends up sliding across KY and traps cold air over E TN in the valleys. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 Let's see where the Euro goes. There is a growing possibility for a weak Mller A w/ system one and WAA w/ the second system if the Candadian at noon and overnight run of the Euro are correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 The 12z GFS has yet a third system around the 30th which is a really good look as the boundary shout be set on both the GFS and CMC at 12z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: While the 12z GFS is still cutter city, it is worth noting that the 12z CMC has not one(but two) ice events for E TN north of I-40. There is wrap around snow with each system. Yeah as usual the risk is for these to all cut. That's been the theme more or less this winter. Let's see if we can get some blocking pressure to hold these south. I'm doubtful for now. Feel like these setups general like to bleed north vs south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 minute ago, fountainguy97 said: Yeah as usual the risk is for these to all cut. That's been the theme more or less this winter. Let's see if we can get some blocking pressure to hold these south. I'm doubtful for now. Feel like these setups general like to bleed north vs south. Nina climatology to a tee. We will see where it goes w/ the Euro. Right now the least accurate model has the cutters. I suspect we see at least one cut thought. That said, I think the greater risk is for suppression once modeling figures out the cold boundary. I actually feel like this is the best pattern we have seen for winter weather this winter - on paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 To have a decent shot at a big storm, we want to sit right on the boundary between cold and warm air masses at this time of year. Sometimes that is a plus and sometimes not - meaning sometimes we will be north of that line and sometimes south. But we have to be on the edge to score snow. This window of Jan22 to roughly Feb5th is actually a better window IMHO than December as the STJ is actually active. No STJ, and it can be really tough to get snow into the forum area, especially the eastern valley. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Yes, hopefully we can get the boundary to sit over or just south of us. Don’t need it to cut to quick or too far south and east especially for middle and west tenn. The one bad deal for Tennessee winter weather lovers is what works for west and middle often doesn’t for East Tenn. It’s been a long time since we have had the perfect southern slider that nails the entire state just right. Hopefully we have enough systems come through everyone gets in on something in the next 2-3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Let's pay attention to the 50-50 area during the systems propagation crossing the Mississippi. Hopefully, we'll have at least a semblance of one as we need it to help stave them from cutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 So the 12z Euro has an Apps runner for the 22/23 system and a very, very suppressed look for the one on the 25th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Not at a place where I can check modeling. Is west/mid TN in play for the 25th? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, *Flash* said: Not at a place where I can check modeling. Is west/mid TN in play for the 25th? At this point I'd say yes. GFS and Canadian cut the low right across TN while the Euro is down on the gulf. If we can split the difference we'll be golden. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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