January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread

[Carvers Gap]

9 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

You take the good with the bad in winters when the GOM is active


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Just reading the MA forum tea leaves...maybe the STJ stays active.  Modeling is still all over the place this morning in regards to timing, intensity, and duration of the next cold snap.  It ranges from seasonal to extreme cold to just slightly AN.   The bouncing around may be a hint that more intense cold is entering the pattern.

[Itryatgolf70]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Just reading the MA forum tea leaves...maybe the STJ stays active.  Modeling is still all over the place this morning in regards to timing, intensity, and duration of the next cold snap.  It ranges from seasonal to extreme cold to just slightly AN.   The bouncing around may be a hint that more intense cold is entering the pattern.

Merry Christmas to you buddy. I have head talk about a possible SSW event, but that's still far away. Hopefully one does pan out brings us a colder stormier pattern eventually this winter

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Merry Christmas to you buddy. I have head talk about a possible SSW event, but that's still far away. Hopefully one does pan out brings us a colder stormier pattern eventually this winter

Yeah, those things are feast or famine.  I have heard similar though.  Just kind of seems like our year in terms of cold.  Get that STJ lit, and things could be good.

[Daniel Boone]

Merry Christmas to all

[Vol Man]

Merry Christmas to all of our Tennessee Valley weather family!!!!

[PowellVolz]

Yeah, those things are feast or famine.  I have heard similar though.  Just kind of seems like our year in terms of cold.  Get that STJ lit, and things could be good.

Those are delayed two weeks right?


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[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

Those are delayed two weeks right?


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JB says this one is bottom up.  That should result in a quicker response in the troposphere.  At the point I think I have SSW stuff figured out, I realize I don't!  LOL.

[Itryatgolf70]

21 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

JB says this one is bottom up.  That should result in a quicker response in the troposphere.  At the point I think I have SSW stuff figured out, I realize I don't!  LOL.

To get a real ssw event, winds have to reverse from westerly to easterly and if don't happen, it's not one but can have stretching of pv. 

[Matthew70]

Merry Christmas to everyone & their families!  

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

To get a real ssw event, winds have to reverse from westerly to easterly and if don't happen, it's not one but can have stretching of pv. 

I think my working definition of an SSW is a heating of the strat which causes a disruption in the SPV.  Sometimes that has no effect on the TPV.  Sometimes it disrupts it normal position.  This month we have seen the disruption begin in the TPV and work up if I remember correctly.  We may be getting ready to see that again.  The upcoming warm episode is likely due to the TPV centering and getting its footing back. With the Pacific so hostile, we are prob going to need some help.  Without the disruption and consequential NAO this month....we would have likely been torch city otherwise as evidenced by the upcoming warmup.  December was a textbook Niña of extremes though.  
 

The 12z ensembles all looked like they were making a transition to either a PNA/EPO ridge and/or HB block.  That results in the SE ridge being abated.  The SER presence on modeling is strong.  It will come back as a standing wave every time the block relaxes.  As of now I lean base warm with several extended bouts of cold.
 

But unlike December, January’s climatology favors snow.  We will see.

[Itryatgolf70]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think my working definition of an SSW is a heating of the strat which causes a disruption in the SPV.  Sometimes that has no effect on the TPV.  Sometimes it disrupts it normal position.  This month we have seen the disruption begin in the TPV and work up if I remember correctly.  We may be getting ready to see that again.  The upcoming warm episode is likely due to the TPV centering and getting its footing back. With the Pacific so hostile, we are prob going to need some help.  Without the disruption and consequential NAO this month....we would have likely been torch city otherwise as evidenced by the upcoming warmup.  December was a textbook Niña of extremes though.  
 

The 12z ensembles all looked like they were making a transition to either a PNA/EPO ridge and/or HB block.  That results in the SE ridge being abated.  The SER presence on modeling is strong.  It will come back as a standing wave every time the block relaxes.  As of now I lean base warm with several extended bouts of cold.
 

But unlike December, January’s climatology favors snow.  We will see.

Typically every winter we have warming that tries to weaken the spv, but with no avail. Reversing the winds is the only way to get a real SSW from what I understand. Hopefully that takes place and we get cold and stormy. Still think mid January is good time frame but kicking can scenario will delay it

[Carvers Gap]

42 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Typically every winter we have warming that tries to weaken the spv, but with no avail. Reversing the winds is the only way to get a real SSW from what I understand. Hopefully that takes place and we get cold and stormy. Still think mid January is good time frame but kicking can scenario will delay it

We don’t even need a real split...just a disruption.  Often a true split results in cold going to Asia or the NA West.  The current cold is due to it being jostled earlier this month IMO.  A true split is often chaotic.  But the SPV and TPV, excluding the current time frame and for the upcoming couple of weeks, has been disrupted enough to produce the NAO which caused record or near record cold.  I am guessing that repeats in a less extreme way.  But that is only a guess.  It will be interesting to see.
 

At this point, lots of factors in play in addition to any strat warming - climatology, MJO, snowpack over NA, rising QBO, maybe a new NAO decadal cycle???, impending Nino....

[jaxjagman]

Dont care for when the SPV splits myself,it's just a wrecking ball for winter when its happens in our part.MJO still looks like it will be like when we seen it in Nov.Still believe as we head into the Mid month we will see changes towards the better,we could even see  more sliders as the MJO starts to head into the WH/Africa,just need the cold

 

[jaxjagman]

We already can see signs of the AO coming back to life,just need the Pac to work in tandem

[Carvers Gap]

The GFS seems to have returned to some sort of normal state.  Let's see if the new upgrade is as good as last winter's at being able to sniff out storms and cold at range.  The 18z GFS operational and the 12z GEPS ensemble are hinting strongly at cold air intrusion by around Jan 8th w/ the 500mb pattern transitioning w/ a cold front around the 5th.  The 18z GFS again is hinting at snow showers during that time frame.

We have the clipper tomorrow which Nashville already has a SWS for and some of western KY in a WWA.  I wouldn't be surprised if we weren't beginning to track a new system around the New Year - meaning we can "see" on modeling the next opportunity to track (likely second week of Jan or early third).  

So far, there is no can kicking, but that wouldn't surprise me.  There has been some question as to whether the Jan 8th system can break the ridge over the east and push it NE(maybe forming a new block over Greenland or pseudo block).

[Carvers Gap]

And looking back on the GFS struggles, those wild swings were possibly due to the anomalous cold in the patter during the long range.  I do see models flipping around quite a bit right now.  I would guess another cold intrusion is likely.  The CFSv2 is all over the place.  

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GEFS has decent storm signal Jan7th-ish.  Slides the slp under TN and then up the coast.  Long way out and just spitballing.

[Carvers Gap]

Sign me up for what the 18z GEFS is cooking after Jan5th.  A PNA forms while still holding some of the HB block.  This allows for an east/west storm track which is suppressed and just cold enough.

[PowellVolz]

Sign me up for what the 18z GEFS is cooking after Jan5th.  A PNA forms while still holding some of the HB block.  This allows for an east/west storm track which is suppressed and just cold enough.

Seems like we always get our best snows when the temps are just cold enough. I can only remember a handful of times over the years where temps where never in question for a big snow.


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[Carvers Gap]

33 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Seems like we always get our best snows when the temps are just cold enough. I can only remember a handful of times over the years where temps where never in question for a big snow.


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A gradient look is usual money here during January.  

[Itryatgolf70]

43 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

A gradient look is usual money here during January.  

Providing their is enough cold air 

[Carvers Gap]

33 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Providing their is enough cold air 

Goes without saying.  All caveats apply.   I usually don’t list the long list of ways it can’t snow.  

[PowellVolz]

Goes without saying.  All caveats apply.   I usually don’t list the long list of ways it can’t snow.  

Lol. There’s enough negativity as it is on here at times.


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[Carvers Gap]

15 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Lol. There’s enough negativity as it is on here at times.


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LOL.  Suppression.  Northwest jog.  Cold/dry pattern.  Wet/rainy pattern.  Warm nose.  Down slope.  Kick the can.  Best accums are always outlier runs.  MJO.  IO convection.  Convection in the Gulf.  Model loses the storm:  OTS.  Cold gets stuck on the Plateau.  Low in the Lakes.....

 

[Itryatgolf70]

18 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

LOL.  Suppression.  Northwest jog.  Cold/dry pattern.  Wet/rainy pattern.  Warm nose.  Down slope.  Kick the can.  Best accums are always outlier runs.  MJO.  IO convection.  Convection in the Gulf.  Model loses the storm:  OTS.  Cold gets stuck on the Plateau.  Low in the Lakes.....

 

So much energy flying around 

[PowellVolz]

LOL.  Suppression.  Northwest jog.  Cold/dry pattern.  Wet/rainy pattern.  Warm nose.  Down slope.  Kick the can.  Best accums are always outlier runs.  MJO.  IO convection.  Convection in the Gulf.  Model loses the storm:  OTS.  Cold gets stuck on the Plateau.  Low in the Lakes.....
 

We have battered snow syndrome but it’s warranted. We have all had “cant miss” storms and Mother Nature pulled the rug out from underneath us. I remember in 2014’ or 15’ we had a 2 day overrunning event with temps in the low 20’s. QPF was up to 1.5” for everyone. About 2 days out the 850mb started creeping north and by the day of the event, 850’s were in central Kentucky. I was beside myself.


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[Matthew70]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

LOL.  Suppression.  Northwest jog.  Cold/dry pattern.  Wet/rainy pattern.  Warm nose.  Down slope.  Kick the can.  Best accums are always outlier runs.  MJO.  IO convection.  Convection in the Gulf.  Model loses the storm:  OTS.  Cold gets stuck on the Plateau.  Low in the Lakes.....

 

Don’t forget the sun angle & ground is to warm! 

[Carvers Gap]

The LR pattern looks reasonably good.  We may well fight some zonal issues(there is another!) as the PNA isn't overly strong early on.  Maritime flow blasts right through it.  That said, the pattern at 500mb could possibly deliver normal temps for January...and that is plenty good.  Still a nice storm signal between say the 7th and 10th.

[Carvers Gap]

The CFSv2 continues to waffle with almost every run regarding whether a trough can take hold just prior to the 10th(and hold through most of the month).  The EPS, GEPS, GEFS, GFS operational....all look decent for a return to seasonal or colder weather by the 10th-ish.  Again, I think the MJO forecast is prob the culprit.  Please sign the waiver when discussions about the long range begin - LOL.

[snowmaker]

Well we received around 2.5 on the 23rd snow and we received 1.5 early this morning. That’s a pretty good start for here and we still have January and February at least for more chances. I feel good about our chances at a bigger event or maybe 2 as we get on in to January.