Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Looks like the first ten days or so will be warm, but that is not a lock. After three years of La Nina, we are probably closing-in on our last few months of this ENSO phase. La Nina's often yield warm Januarys, but something makes me think we buck the trend this month for at least part of the month. I have January as AN in my seasonal forecast, but a portion of the last 20 days of the month could be quite cold. I still expect some wild swings this winter w/ a base warm pattern and very cold interludes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Definitely going to be warm it appears for New Year’s. The TWC yeah I know has here at 66 & 60’s most of that week. IF it stays that way for a couple weeks then the fescue will awaken. I just had to mow my yard this week. That should stop at least temporarily after this Christmas weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 16 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Definitely going to be warm it appears for New Year’s. The TWC yeah I know has here at 66 & 60’s most of that week. IF it stays that way for a couple weeks then the fescue will awaken. I just had to mow my yard this week. That should stop at least temporarily after this Christmas weekend. My yard has been dormant since mid November other than just picking up leftover leaves. After record cold or near record cold temps, I doubt my yard is gonna have much life it in after the extreme cold upcoming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Definitely going to be warm it appears for New Year’s. The TWC yeah I know has here at 66 & 60’s most of that week. IF it stays that way for a couple weeks then the fescue will awaken. I just had to mow my yard this week. That should stop at least temporarily after this Christmas weekend. I mowed today. Should be done until February preemerg . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 The 18z GEFS seems to have made a significant move to the 12z CMC at 500mb for the second week of January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 I guess we unloaded all the cold out of Siberia and it all headed our way lol. Hopefully we get a better pattern mid January and not waste it all on warm weather. I want a few real winter storms in our area or at least something to track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 I guess we unloaded all the cold out of Siberia and it all headed our way lol. Hopefully we get a better pattern mid January and not waste it all on warm weather. I want a few real winter storms in our area or at least something to track.If you like being disappointed, welcome to the site. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 The global ensembles overnight are singing the same song....The Hudson Bay block sags a bit too far south to help at all. At 0z and 6z, I don't see any remarkable cool downs. Again, normal temps will get it done, and it may be a struggle to get those. All of that said, we are ten days from January....LONG way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 No where to go but down for the SOI? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 Just a wee bit of variability....6z CFSv2 run on left. I "thin" January starts warm. How long that lasts is TBD. I do hear some chatter that it might have some aspects of November embedded in the pattern. That would mean a period of warmth followed by cold. I am 50/50 on whether this is a 4-6 week complete pattern change(see image on the right) or typical January thaw (end result see image on the left). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 Larry Cosgrove has had a pretty hot hand of late...These are his recent comments. He is a great follow on social media. Over the past five days, the various numerical forecast models have gone crazy with predictions of warming across the entire continent. I follow the more conservative GGEM ensemble run, since that is the only series that acknowledges the possible impact of a major storm undercutting a ridge in Nunavut AR. If you accept the idea of the January Thaw coming early, then a harsh winter weather pattern will return in the middle of next month. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: The global ensembles overnight are singing the same song....The Hudson Bay block sags a bit too far south to help at all. At 0z and 6z, I don't see any remarkable cool downs. Again, normal temps will get it done, and it may be a struggle to get those. All of that said, we are ten days from January....LONG way to go. Carver, what time intervals are "normal" temps generated from? What is the start date for historical data? If one moves that arbitrary start date to the year 2000, what is our normal temp at ktri? If you have a source I'll go to it and find the info myself. Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 10 minutes ago, Bigbald said: Carver, what time intervals are "normal" temps generated from? What is the start date for historical data? If one moves that arbitrary start date to the year 2000, what is our normal temp at ktri? If you have a source I'll go to it and find the info myself. Thanks The reanalysis page which I use has this message: Default climatology has been changed to 1991-2020 That site might be a good place to start as you can toggle the base period norms: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 9 minutes ago, Bigbald said: Carver, what time intervals are "normal" temps generated from? What is the start date for historical data? If one moves that arbitrary start date to the year 2000, what is our normal temp at ktri? If you have a source I'll go to it and find the info myself. Thanks Here is another page from that site. I really hope that data is made a pay site. Easily is my top historical site for climate data. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/correlation/long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: No where to go but down for the SOI? I always forget to look at the SOI. Let us know when the thing drops, especially if sharply...big storm signal if so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 @Holston_River_Rambler @jaxjagman I though this was pretty interesting. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: @Holston_River_Rambler @jaxjagman I though this was pretty interesting. Think this means the twitter met weenies.Would be the same people that say i told you but when they are wrong they go into a cave and hibernate.Seems like most signs are for a neutral or weak Nino into summer 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 I think we've been in a pretty stable pattern since October: 2.5 warm weeks , 1.5 cold weeks. If that continues we should rotate back through around around Jan. 20th give or take a few days. If it doesn't, we probably have a major pattern change. Raindancewx was mentioning that 84-85 was a good (but not perfect) analog so far as this winter has progressed. He thought maybe Jan 20 - Feb 20 was the best chance for our forum area. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Speaking of Ninos I've been struck lately by the STJ involvement in a storm around the New Year as depicted by the GFS: Watch that little jet streak over Mexico get pulled up into the Pac jet. GFS may not have the details, but it has been very insistent on something like that happening. To be clear I don't think there is a chance for snow with this, just interested to see the STJ 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I think we've been in a pretty stable pattern since October: 2.5 warm weeks , 1.5 cold weeks. If that continues we should rotate back through around around Jan. 20th give or take a few days. If it doesn't, we probably have a major pattern change. Raindancewx was mentioning that 84-85 was a good (but not perfect) analog so far as this winter has progressed. He thought maybe Jan 20 - Feb 20 was the best chance for our forum area. Wow, that is a big analog. It does look like a reloading pattern. The 12z CFSv2 has that. I really like 10-11 as my analog. If I had a wishful analog....raindance would be it. I was thinking today that maybe this wasn't our only bout of sever cold this winter w/ so much HL blocking showing up. Many forget that some of these really cold winters had very warm interludes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 Digging through this afternoon's teleconnections, it does looks like the Pacific will drive the next cold/cool shot maybe around Jan5th. Then, another warm interlude, then the -NAO takes a swing after that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 The 18z GFS, at range FWIW, is popping a massive PNA ridge after d10. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 It cuts off a low in the southwest or the flip to colder would happen much quicker IMO. Looks like the date(multiple models and not just the GFS) for the next cold pattern begins around Jan5th(slightly early if that cutoff kicks out of the Four Corners a bit quicker). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 And not to overkill one run of the LR GFS, but that is split flow under that PNA ridge to boot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Carver, I'm thinking mid January for our next opportunity imo. It's tough to tell what may happen this far out. Just enough cold air and moisture will be good enough 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2022 Author Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said: Carver, I'm thinking mid January for our next opportunity imo. It's tough to tell what may happen this far out. Just enough cold air and moisture will be good enough Sounds about right or just prior. Modeling is showing the second week in January switching to a decent PNA. If one accounts for modeling kicking the can, mid-month would be about right. If no can kicking, I might guess something in the 7th-10th range...and us actually beginning to track that system around the New Year. The end of the 18z GEFS is beginning the transition to an eastern trough. The operational flirted with that occurring much sooner. It really depends on which model is handling the MJO the best. The GEFS EXT this evening had a similar transition but maybe 2-3 days later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2022 Author Share Posted December 22, 2022 8 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Speaking of Ninos I've been struck lately by the STJ involvement in a storm around the New Year as depicted by the GFS: Watch that little jet streak over Mexico get pulled up into the Pac jet. GFS may not have the details, but it has been very insistent on something like that happening. To be clear I don't think there is a chance for snow with this, just interested to see the STJ Man, if we could get that to connect w/ some cold........................... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Man, if we could get that to connect w/ some cold........................... I agree. It's just tough in the south to get it all to come together. We evacuated Siberia so we will have to reload it if we can. I really thought with the -nao we would have gotten a southern slider but unfortunately it didn't work out. I take an icestorm at this point, as long as it's not too bad lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2022 Author Share Posted December 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said: I agree. It's just tough in the south to get it all to come together. We evacuated Siberia so we will have to reload it if we can. I really thought with the -nao we would have gotten a southern slider but unfortunately it didn't work out. I take an icestorm at this point, as long as it's not too bad lol I kind of hold to the idea that Canada does a really good job of making its own cold. We just need "normal" temps in January to score. The -NAO will be responsible for this cold shot. If the STJ had been active, we would have seen a pretty massive storm in the East. Some modeling suggests it returns later in January. The ideal game plan is +PNA followed by the -NAO. That is on the table. I still hold out a little hope for Dec 27th-28th. That said, climatology really just does not favor December here(but it has been good during the last 10-15 years). I am good with periodic cold shots for the next ten weeks. We can score with that. Honestly, if this is the start of winter(and not and '89 end which I don't think it is), we will look back on December as a fun start. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 On 12/21/2022 at 11:12 AM, Carvers Gap said: I always forget to look at the SOI. Let us know when the thing drops, especially if sharply...big storm signal if so. Well, I thought it couldn't go up much more..... At some point that has to drop pretty precipitously. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now