Cary67 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 5 hours ago, mimillman said: We will have our time, don’t worry. And when that happens, it will likely be a nice cold rain for you. Seems we rely more on hybrid clippers than strong cutters to pan out the last several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Seems we rely more on hybrid clippers than strong cutters to pan out the last several years. Climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 My 3-6” range final call for LOT CWA probably busts a tad high, 2-4” would be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Will stick with 1-3" call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 06z euro still on that bs with the slp way out ahead of upper level features etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Cold without the snow to complement it is a waste. Let’s get dangerous and go for 2.6” at the Rockford airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 I'm still riding my call from Monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 14 minutes ago, Harry said: 06z euro still on that bs with the slp way out ahead of upper level features etc.. Another tick east too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Interesting lay out of snow if it verifies. If you werent tracking it I would think the evolution of this system would be hard to theorize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Maybe with the winds so strong, we can get some of the higher totals to the west and northwest to blow more snow in here helping "bump" totals. But yeah, locking in 1-2" for MBY total. Very short duration of snow and consistent drying trends on the models making me like that call. Hoping for those to the east, that solutions hold and they get buried. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Think I'll tweak the 2-4" call down to 1-3". Northwestern DVN cwa easily does the best since their precip won't be nearly as fleeting. A few days ago I never would have guessed the heaviest snows in the cwa would end up out that way lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 11 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: Another tick east too I actually left the Euro people a question about it. I am just not buying it as is. Upper levels or SLP placement is off which means snowfall totals are off. A matter of which? Most of them show nearly the same upper level features which suggests to me the slp placement is off along with snowfall totals. Jmho 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Harry said: I actually left the Euro people a question about it. I am just not buying it as is. Upper levels or SLP placement is off which means snowfall totals are off. A matter of which? Most of them show nearly the same upper level features which suggests to me the slp placement is off along with snowfall totals. Jmho As always, gonna come down to now casting with the timing of it bombing. Id say even detroit is still in the ballgame for the bigger snows, altho areas already outlined looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, Harry said: I actually left the Euro people a question about it. I am just not buying it as is. Upper levels or SLP placement is off which means snowfall totals are off. A matter of which? Most of them show nearly the same upper level features which suggests to me the slp placement is off along with snowfall totals. Jmho Which way do you think it will go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 It is the battle of the 1" or under QPF models (GPDS and ECMWF) vs those over 1" (GFS, UKMET, and even at 84 hours the NAM). I wonder which one(s) will win. Two very different scenarios on the map at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Just now, WestMichigan said: It is the battle of the 1" or under QPF models (GPDS and ECMWF) vs those over 1" (GFS, UKMET, and even at 84 hours the NAM). I wonder which one(s) will win. Two very different scenarios on the map at this point. I know who I’d pick 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, WestMichigan said: Which way do you think it will go? Hard to say? Been gone too long and have not paid close enough attention to the models and their trends? A question of which is off or if both are off? These types of storms are rare around here as is. 4 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: As always, gonna come down to now casting with the timing of it bombing. Id say even detroit is still in the ballgame for the bigger snows, altho areas already outlined looks good. Yep. I agree on all points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Fwiw the 9z SREF actually ticked totals up decently for everyone. Back to 5” mean at ORD, GRR at 17”, DVN substantially higher (9”), MKE 6” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shredded LES Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Good morning everyone! Been following along for the past several days and thought I'd join the fun. These models are really playing mind games and I'm surprised how early some NWS offices shared snow amounts. I think today is a big day to get some sort of confluence..We'll see! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 I'm grasping for straws, but the 12z HRRR ticked totals up in a bit in IL. Farther east, looks like it developed a bit faster, was a slight shift west, versus the 6z run. Might be just timing though. I don't know why I'm still paying attention to this thing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Chicago WX said: I'm grasping for straws, but the 12z HRRR ticked totals up in a bit in IL. Farther east, looks like it developed a bit faster, was a slight shift west, versus the 6z run. Might be just timing though. I don't know why I'm still paying attention to this thing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: I'm grasping for straws, but the 12z HRRR ticked totals up in a bit in IL. Farther east, looks like it developed a bit faster, was a slight shift west, versus the 6z run. Might be just timing though. I don't know why I'm still paying attention to this thing. Because you’ve invested time in it so you’re seeing it through. It’s like in Deal or No Deal where the $1 million gets knocked out with 6 cases left in the game; so the contestant just keeps playing until the end and wins $5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Going to be easy to nowcast this when zero snow falls. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 So the 12z NAM is hinting at what the SREF was onto (no surprise there) with main WAA more impactful in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, hence higher totals. That is believable 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Going to be easy to nowcast this when zero snow falls. I can only hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, mimillman said: So the 12z NAM is hinting at what the SREF was onto (no surprise there) with main WAA more impactful in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, hence higher totals. That is believable What's the chances we can get a last min secondary low to bring us a slug of moisture straight north ahead of the front, like we saw 2 weeks ago into N IL (rain at that time) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, ChiTownSnow said: What's the chances we can get a last min secondary low to bring us a slug of moisture straight north ahead of the front, like we saw 2 weeks ago into N IL (rain at that time) No clue. More NAM updates: it is more amplified out west in the DVN CWA, hence the higher totals there. Still lackluster across the majority of Illinois but an improvement from the glorified snow showers on the 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 hours ago, Cary67 said: What's your seasonal total so far? Some years the snows find you Up to 24.5” on the season. The last several years we’ve started hot. -4 and the snow just started here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Call looking $$$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Not much to like for anyone east of IA on that NAM. Totals in E MI have been nuked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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