mimillman Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Man… 21z SREF drops ORD mean to 3.5”. There are 14 members below to mean, 9 above. Of the 14 members below the mean, 10 of them are < 2” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imneversatisfied Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 52 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: We don't have the Fujiwara effects of '78 in this case, so if we can indeed keep this track nudged east across Lk Erie this could certainly treat SEMI better than that did. To all the down-players of less SN total = storm cancel. Keep in mind that '78 did this in Mansfield OH on just 5-6" of new accums. Awesome post! I appreciate the info. My parents have a picture of them on a drift level with a two story window for 78'. I definitely dont expect that but should be a fun storm here in Alpena. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: Man… 21z SREF drops ORD mean to 3.5”. There are 14 members below to mean, 9 above. Of the 14 members below the mean, 10 of them are < 2” Izz'd HARD 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 10 minutes ago, Harry said: Per the nowdata for here there was 7 on the ground when that hit. Topped out at 30" when the blizzard finished. Other than maybe lake effect, you haven't had 30 on the ground since? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 24 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: That's all quite interesting about 1-26-78 but the actual storm track was closer to Sarnia-Port Huron and up Lake Huron, I was actually in a weather office drawing up a map at 0800h and still have the map. There was a pressure of 955 mb at Sarnia and at one point maybe around 09-10h London ON had hurricane force southerly winds that were wrap-around arctic air. This won't quite get that wrapped up anywhere. I realize the technology has improved but the 24h prog position of that storm was over western Lake Ontario (it came up from around central AL). We were expecting a snowstorm in Toronto and got one from the wrap-around instead of northeast winds, so the public were not that aware of a forecast bust. I think it probably came as more of a shock further west, the intensity was quite unforeseen in southwestern ON. Those winds knocked down several large hydro-electric towers in that region. You don't often see arctic air blowing from the south in that part of the world. I'm well aware. The shooting NNW of the S Low pulled a bubble of warm layer with it that caused a prolonging of mixing issues at DTW and a lot of SEMI reducing eventual snow totals. Why I said a track a bit east over Erie could treat this area better than '78 did. You can see that blob of lighter green over Wayne Cnty and a bit north indicating 7.5-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Other than maybe lake effect, you haven't had 30 on the ground since? iirc, that was the all-time depth at BC and only time on record to crest 30" depth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Blowing dab. Final call. . 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 hour ago, SolidIcewx said: pm AFD written by He/She/It/Bot #99. Dry like they were copying someone else's homework to turn in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: pm AFD written by He/She/It/Bot #99. Dry like they were copying someone else's homework to turn in I feel like dtx are snow weenies like us and are so jaded and upset with how much we suck, that they have no motivation to write an afd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 15 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: I'm well aware. The shooting NNW of the S Low pulled a bubble of warm layer with it that caused a prolonging of mixing issues at DTW and a lot of SEMI reducing eventual snow totals. Why I said a track a bit east over Erie could treat this area better than '78 did. You can see that blob of lighter green over Wayne Cnty and a bit north indicating 7.5-10" Apologies if my comment seemed related to that, I was just commenting on a graphic in somebody's post showing the low tracking further east in Ontario than what I recall. That was possibly the track of the triple point though. In Toronto we went from 40F and rain at 0700h to 18F and snow two hours later. The fropa had wind gusts over 70 mph locally whether that was picked up at airport or not, in fact where I normally parked there was a big a/c unit that had blown off the roof five minutes before I arrived for work. So that plus the fact it was still mild at 0700h tipped me off that the prog position had busted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Hoping everyone is preparing for possible power outages with this system and frigid cold...even areas that don't get a lot of snow. We lost power during the November 5th wind event with winds between 60 and 70 mph. This event won't be as strong but with the cold temps any power outages could become a big problem if you can't keep warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 00z HRRR down to about a 4-5hr period of post-frontal snow for the QC and a good chunk of northern IL. The event ends over 24hrs earlier than what was shown a few days ago. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 18 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Other than maybe lake effect, you haven't had 30 on the ground since? I dont believe so? 24" I believe is the closest it has gotten since that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: 00z HRRR down to about a 4-5hr period of post-frontal snow for the QC and a good chunk of northern IL. The event ends over 24hrs earlier than what was shown a few days ago. Headed for a dry fropa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 29 minutes ago, Frog Town said: The December and January prior to the Blizzard of 78 was mild Yes, but across much of S Lakes/OHV there was a decent remnant snowpack. 5" was typical across non-LES regions of SMI as the storm set in. This was a slushy compacted base which rapidly re-froze and did aid in allowing the new snow which was of a high ratio type to blow and drift quickly. An ideal state most of us will not have from an impact standpoint. As mentioned there was the 1st in the series of triple blizzards that had run through the OHV around the 19th iirc. It was a big deal for IN and OH and eastward. Then the bomb cut N over the remnant snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Can't believe I'm spending my Tuesday evening comparing 500mb vorticity ribbons across Wyoming and Colorado from the 0z NAM to previous runs 3 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 9 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: 00z HRRR down to about a 4-5hr period of post-frontal snow for the QC and a good chunk of northern IL. The event ends over 24hrs earlier than what was shown a few days ago. Gotta lose that northern bs.. ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 13 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: I feel like dtx are snow weenies like us and are so jaded and upset with how much we suck, that they have no motivation to write an afd. New here, so not gotten a feel for weenie-isms or not. Their overnight crew AFD's the past couple/few days have been awesome and in depth without seeming too upbeat or downbeat. But right when you think they'd issue something or at least express some concerns for public safety, they 99'd us. It is a few days before the holidays and notoriously in these situations in big storms of the past GRR's better Mets would be out and we'd get total BS from "04" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, Kaner88 said: Can't believe I'm spending my Tuesday evening comparing 500mb vorticity ribbons across Wyoming and Colorado from the 0z NAM to previous runs I find myself saying I can't believe I'm doing this during every snow tracking event, like staying up for the euro when I gotta start work at 5am. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Harry said: Gotta lose that northern bs.. ugh Yep. It makes very little sense though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: New here, so not gotten a feel for weenie-isms or not. Their overnight crew AFD's the past couple/few days have been awesome and in depth without seeming too upbeat or downbeat. But right when you think they'd issue something or at least express some concerns for public safety, they 99'd us. It is a few days before the holidays and notoriously in these situations in big storms of the past GRR's better Mets would be out and we'd get total BS from "04" DTX is always like this. They dont issue watches until way late, like sometimes watch, then next cycle warning. Totally negates the point of a watch... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, RogueWaves said: Yep. It makes very little sense though No it doesn't.. I mean it could happen but that would mean the models are screwing the pooch with the upper level features etc.. Really have not paid enough attention to know which it is the models are screwing with? Regardless to get better snows ( even Les here ) down this way back to Chicago that northern stuff needs to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: I find myself saying I can't believe I'm doing this during every snow tracking event, like staying up for the euro when I gotta start work at 5am. Same here but ima wait till I get to my job site at 6 and set up my work/storm tracking station in my work truck lol. I will be up late as hell next few days tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, LansingWeather said: DTX is always like this. They dont issue watches until way late, like sometimes watch, then next cycle warning. Totally negates the point of a watch... Amazing thing about the watch here ( GRR ) is who did it here. They are usually on the conservative side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 I’m liking 6-8” for Madison. Should see higher ratios with mostly a front end bump vs wrap around. Throw in some winds on Friday and it will be as wintery as anyone could ask for. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 if anyone was hoping the 0z OP NAM would lead the way with progress back in a positive direction... my condolences. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 The NAM follows roughly the same path but does at least seem to be a bit more moist 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 oddly, i still think this will be a memorable event and NWS offices will have been justified in the early lead time watches. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 28 minutes ago, Harry said: No it doesn't.. I mean it could happen but that would mean the models are screwing the pooch with the upper level features etc.. Really have not paid enough attention to know which it is the models are screwing with? Regardless to get better snows ( even Les here ) down this way back to Chicago that northern stuff needs to go. Globals aren't showing that though. Seems like the models do like to amplify the N stream Lows more for some reason. Due to proximity to the thermal boundary perhaps. I don't see this returning to a CF passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, Baum said: oddly, i still think this will be a memorable event and NWS offices will have been justified in the early lead time watches. Can you image the range of model solutions we'd be forced to endure with the '78 mega-merger scenario Or the board crashing because EC Weenies were already salivating at Feb 5th on LR runs? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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