Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,601
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm
 Share

Recommended Posts

Temp hit 0° here, so I decided to drive down to the road to get my mail and check on the situation.

It's cold

It's windy

We got minimal snow (I'd guess an inch)

The power company hasn't shut down the wind turbines yet.

Overall, it's a run of the mill mid to high end storm, yet not anything we haven't seen before here at our home.

I'd give it a 7/10 so far.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, josh_4184 said:

Ready to be crushed wouldn't be surprised to see a few areas around my hit 30"+.  Biggert event I have ever experienced since moving here.

StormTotalSnow_APX.png

That honestly surprises me, Gaylord gets some of the most snow in the entire LP. I think only Keweenaw, Marquette, and Ontonagon get more than there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Been snowing since last night up here.  Nothing particularly heavy but snowed moderately from time to time today.  Have picked up 6.5" so far with the temp down to 9 degrees after a late morning high of 25.  Wind noticeably on the increase.

Another 20 inches still possible over the next 48 hours.

StormTotalSnow_MQT.thumb.png.75cf31f08191ad9960d22c262839f90f.png

 

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Front has already blasted through here, and down to 19 degrees.  The 5-hour period of snow begins here around 9am.  Models generally converge in the 0.15-0.20" range for qpf, so should fit nicely in that 2-3" window.  Not even gonna try to measure this, I'll just go with the average between whatever falls at DVN/MLI lol.

MLI finished with 0.7", and DVN with 2.3", so guess I'll go with 1.5" here.  

Temp down to -6 with the wind chill at -33.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Imneversatisfied said:

APX are the only place predicting Alpena stays too warm overnight and gets rain. It would cut into some of the best precip rates too. I only see two models showing that too. Hopefully they get that part wrong. Atleast for my sake lol 

During the explosive deepening phase I would expect rain to change to ice pellets and then heavy wet snow with thunder quite possible. From my reading of current map and guidance, the rapidly deepening low will head up through central s MI towards your location by 0600z and then may hover in place for a while as it connects through to the eastern center moving north across L Ontario. Eventually it drifts far enough north that you get into much colder air from the west, snow will remain heavy for a while then come and go in bursts as it becomes more lake effect and less synoptic. I think the deepening phase will drive out the 32-35F dew point air over Lake Huron and allow the rain to change phase, but it could go through a couple of oscillations along the way with heavy ice pellets quite possible around 02-04z. Let us know as you're sort of at ground zero for this. 

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

During the explosive deepening phase I would expect rain to change to ice pellets and then heavy wet snow with thunder quite possible. From my reading of current map and guidance, the rapidly deepening low will head up through central s MI towards your location by 0600z and then may hover in place for a while as it connects through to the eastern center moving north across L Ontario. Eventually it drifts far enough north that you get into much colder air from the west, snow will remain heavy for a while then come and go in bursts as it becomes more lake effect and less synoptic. I think the deepening phase will drive out the 32-35F dew point air over Lake Huron and allow the rain to change phase, but it could go through a couple of oscillations along the way with heavy ice pellets quite possible around 02-04z. Let us know as you're sort of at ground zero for this. 

Wow thanks so much for the breakdown on what might happen. Btw which models are you looking at? I'm definitely hoping all snow lol I'll have updates as things unfold. Unfortunately the main show might be just northwest of me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Blending all models with a nowcast on that Alpena forecast, right now it appears to me that some of the guidance is too progressive. The surface low is holding back a bit further west than the hour to hour positions on 18z models and so their 0600z positions appear too far east by at least 50 miles. I think the low will track very close to APN although it will elongate to form a double center with the eastern circulation. So my forecast was based on more of a nowcast approach than any direct model to forecast approach. Lake Huron as you know is quite warm compared to the air mass temperature coming in but so is Lake Michigan and I wonder if the models entirely processed those signatures into the first part of the evolution. All of the upper level circulations are well back to the west of Lake Michigan so a deepening low should in theory try to move towards the upper lows which may pull it back a bit further west at least through 06z. The explosive deepening phase is just starting now. It should continue for the next 12 hours or so. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Blending all models with a nowcast on that Alpena forecast, right now it appears to me that some of the guidance is too progressive. The surface low is holding back a bit further west than the hour to hour positions on 18z models and so their 0600z positions appear too far east by at least 50 miles. I think the low will track very close to APN although it will elongate to form a double center with the eastern circulation. So my forecast was based on more of a nowcast approach than any direct model to forecast approach. Lake Huron as you know is quite warm compared to the air mass temperature coming in but so is Lake Michigan and I wonder if the models entirely processed those signatures into the first part of the evolution. All of the upper level circulations are well back to the west of Lake Michigan so a deepening low should in theory try to move towards the upper lows which may pull it back a bit further west at least through 06z. The explosive deepening phase is just starting now. It should continue for the next 12 hours or so. 

Thanks again. I was thinking the low center would be further east initially watching the ecmwf,cmc,gfs the past few days. Now NAM and a few others show the low centered as u mentioned.Being that close to the low and Lake Huron will bring warmer air in for a period of time cutting into snow total right? Or could it make it produce more eventually being that close to the deepening low? Definitely an interesting setup taking shape. Just hope it's not a bust here after an initial 8-12" forecasted up until 3 hrs ago by NWS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...