DaveNay Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Temp hit 0° here, so I decided to drive down to the road to get my mail and check on the situation. It's cold It's windy We got minimal snow (I'd guess an inch) The power company hasn't shut down the wind turbines yet. Overall, it's a run of the mill mid to high end storm, yet not anything we haven't seen before here at our home. I'd give it a 7/10 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartan77 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 No problem sticking here. Winds ramped up pretty quickly so the fine snow is blowing easily already. Roads are gonna be a mess in a couple hours. Thats before we even get to the worst of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Ready 2 b buried. Sorry, did I say buried? I meant frozen. Because jiminy cricket, does it hurt to be outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Be lucky to crack 2. Weak sauce 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Still 32 degrees and snowing moderately. Good banding trying to form. Closing in on an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Snow has begun here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIllinoisSnow Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Got about an inch of snow and likely won't last much longer, at least it's blowing around good outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Bit more than an inch down here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 hour ago, josh_4184 said: Ready to be crushed wouldn't be surprised to see a few areas around my hit 30"+. Biggert event I have ever experienced since moving here. That honestly surprises me, Gaylord gets some of the most snow in the entire LP. I think only Keweenaw, Marquette, and Ontonagon get more than there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Been snowing since last night up here. Nothing particularly heavy but snowed moderately from time to time today. Have picked up 6.5" so far with the temp down to 9 degrees after a late morning high of 25. Wind noticeably on the increase. Another 20 inches still possible over the next 48 hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Think I am gonna faint. They are being proactive here with salt trucks out already.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 10 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Front has already blasted through here, and down to 19 degrees. The 5-hour period of snow begins here around 9am. Models generally converge in the 0.15-0.20" range for qpf, so should fit nicely in that 2-3" window. Not even gonna try to measure this, I'll just go with the average between whatever falls at DVN/MLI lol. MLI finished with 0.7", and DVN with 2.3", so guess I'll go with 1.5" here. Temp down to -6 with the wind chill at -33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Still raining down here. Where's the bombogenesis? Where's the low? All I see right now is a frontal passage.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Some of the worst conditions I’ve worked in, this afternoon. The temp drop and everything freezing over instantly. Ripped snow for a couple hours, lighter stuff otherwise. Hard to get a good measure, but thinking about 2.5” IMBY. Time to warm up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 hour ago, Imneversatisfied said: APX are the only place predicting Alpena stays too warm overnight and gets rain. It would cut into some of the best precip rates too. I only see two models showing that too. Hopefully they get that part wrong. Atleast for my sake lol During the explosive deepening phase I would expect rain to change to ice pellets and then heavy wet snow with thunder quite possible. From my reading of current map and guidance, the rapidly deepening low will head up through central s MI towards your location by 0600z and then may hover in place for a while as it connects through to the eastern center moving north across L Ontario. Eventually it drifts far enough north that you get into much colder air from the west, snow will remain heavy for a while then come and go in bursts as it becomes more lake effect and less synoptic. I think the deepening phase will drive out the 32-35F dew point air over Lake Huron and allow the rain to change phase, but it could go through a couple of oscillations along the way with heavy ice pellets quite possible around 02-04z. Let us know as you're sort of at ground zero for this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Another December finished with less than 2”. Ready 2 torch next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 10 minutes ago, Chambana said: Another December finished with less than 2”. Ready 2 torch next week My sentiments exactly. I leave the 30th, and it can't come fast enough. They are expecting like 3-6 here, not a terrible storm, but definitely feels that way after what could have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imneversatisfied Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 15 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: During the explosive deepening phase I would expect rain to change to ice pellets and then heavy wet snow with thunder quite possible. From my reading of current map and guidance, the rapidly deepening low will head up through central s MI towards your location by 0600z and then may hover in place for a while as it connects through to the eastern center moving north across L Ontario. Eventually it drifts far enough north that you get into much colder air from the west, snow will remain heavy for a while then come and go in bursts as it becomes more lake effect and less synoptic. I think the deepening phase will drive out the 32-35F dew point air over Lake Huron and allow the rain to change phase, but it could go through a couple of oscillations along the way with heavy ice pellets quite possible around 02-04z. Let us know as you're sort of at ground zero for this. Wow thanks so much for the breakdown on what might happen. Btw which models are you looking at? I'm definitely hoping all snow lol I'll have updates as things unfold. Unfortunately the main show might be just northwest of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 down to -5. Actually got to see the sun pop out right at sunset. Would estimate 5" or so but definitely impossible to get an actual measurement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Blending all models with a nowcast on that Alpena forecast, right now it appears to me that some of the guidance is too progressive. The surface low is holding back a bit further west than the hour to hour positions on 18z models and so their 0600z positions appear too far east by at least 50 miles. I think the low will track very close to APN although it will elongate to form a double center with the eastern circulation. So my forecast was based on more of a nowcast approach than any direct model to forecast approach. Lake Huron as you know is quite warm compared to the air mass temperature coming in but so is Lake Michigan and I wonder if the models entirely processed those signatures into the first part of the evolution. All of the upper level circulations are well back to the west of Lake Michigan so a deepening low should in theory try to move towards the upper lows which may pull it back a bit further west at least through 06z. The explosive deepening phase is just starting now. It should continue for the next 12 hours or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 22, 2022 Author Share Posted December 22, 2022 Snowfall total of 1.1" at ORD so far as of 0z, and likely the final total with snow about to wrap up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: 1.1" ORD, and likely the final total. Alek ready 2 torch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 1.1" ORD, and likely the final total.Barely travelers advisory criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imneversatisfied Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Blending all models with a nowcast on that Alpena forecast, right now it appears to me that some of the guidance is too progressive. The surface low is holding back a bit further west than the hour to hour positions on 18z models and so their 0600z positions appear too far east by at least 50 miles. I think the low will track very close to APN although it will elongate to form a double center with the eastern circulation. So my forecast was based on more of a nowcast approach than any direct model to forecast approach. Lake Huron as you know is quite warm compared to the air mass temperature coming in but so is Lake Michigan and I wonder if the models entirely processed those signatures into the first part of the evolution. All of the upper level circulations are well back to the west of Lake Michigan so a deepening low should in theory try to move towards the upper lows which may pull it back a bit further west at least through 06z. The explosive deepening phase is just starting now. It should continue for the next 12 hours or so. Thanks again. I was thinking the low center would be further east initially watching the ecmwf,cmc,gfs the past few days. Now NAM and a few others show the low centered as u mentioned.Being that close to the low and Lake Huron will bring warmer air in for a period of time cutting into snow total right? Or could it make it produce more eventually being that close to the deepening low? Definitely an interesting setup taking shape. Just hope it's not a bust here after an initial 8-12" forecasted up until 3 hrs ago by NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TravisWx Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Started snowing here in Rogers City (35 miles north of Alpena) about 15 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Pixie dust flying. Down to 21 degrees. Wind has picked up but not too bad yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 We have at least 3/4in up here in Kenosha. Buried! ⛄️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Ord busted my dab call . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Well the good news is with the clipper on Monday, we may just get to double what’s on the ground if we’re lucky! Wowza!! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 This is rather lack-luster so far, and the back end of the snow is approaching quickly. Will be interesting to see what transpires, but the 3-6” by 1am looks to be in dire jeopardy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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