Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm Part 2

[Chicago Storm]

7 minutes ago, luckyweather said:

do you think tomorrow’s wind will create a multi hour ground stop at ord?

if that's going to come to fruition, we're going to need a lot more snow.

so i'd say it's pretty unlikely right now, unless something changes pretty quickly.

[mimillman]

30 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Here's something that's kind of hard to believe.  Chicago's record daily snowfall for 12/22 is 3.6", which is tied with December 21 for the lowest value in December.

Also, there have only been 2 snowfalls over 2" on 12/22 -- in 1953 and 2009.

Wouldn’t expect today to get added to the list…

[Chicago WX]

Pounding here. Good flakes too. Winds gusty. 14 degrees. Good snows Won’t last long, but it’s pretty neat.

[michaelmantis]

Can someone share the background again on why the NWS reduced the types of Winter "advisories" a few years back? (Getting rid of Winter Weather Advisories, etc).

I'm out in an area along what is really the end of a populated area in N IL and we have an inch at most on the ground right now. However, drive 3 miles west of me to the open fields and it is not a place anyone should be driving or out right now. 

Forget about the "hype of a big storm" and "how could most of the models been so off" but really isn't the issue that the NWS doesn't have a way to effectively communicate the hazards of a winter storm? 

I get you don't want 100 types of advisories, but a clearly worded "we are only getting 2 inches of snow but driving will be impossible in some areas" type message would be better than a "Winter Storm Warning" where someone not as crazy as all of us (who have followed this thing for a week and every model run) looks outside and thinks "this isn't a storm" and puts themself at risk?

[Chicago Storm]

1/2SM SN FZFG DRSN here at ORD currently.

[WestMichigan]

18Z NAM products increased the total QPF across most of SW Michigan.  Flakes have started but are pretty light so far.

[sbnwx85]

Indiana Department of Homeland Security is deploying military personnel to help drivers who get stuck on the Indiana Toll Road starting tonight. 

[btcs31]

The roads are no joke already. Grass is still visible but the pavement is whitening, and as someone pointed out already there is a glaze of ice underneath. Will be a rough afternoon for anyone traveling, which has been the clear messaging from the NWS.

[jlauderdal]

1 minute ago, sbnwx85 said:

Indiana Department of Homeland Security is deploying military personnel to help drivers who get stuck on the Indiana Toll Road starting tonight. 

close the road if its that dangerous

[mimillman]

View in wicker

[TheNiño]

10 minutes ago, michaelmantis said:

Can someone share the background again on why the NWS reduced the types of Winter "advisories" a few years back? (Getting rid of Winter Weather Advisories, etc).

I'm out in an area along what is really the end of a populated area in N IL and we have an inch at most on the ground right now. However, drive 3 miles west of me to the open fields and it is not a place anyone should be driving or out right now. 

Forget about the "hype of a big storm" and "how could most of the models been so off" but really isn't the issue that the NWS doesn't have a way to effectively communicate the hazards of a winter storm? 

I get you don't want 100 types of advisories, but a clearly worded "we are only getting 2 inches of snow but driving will be impossible in some areas" type message would be better than a "Winter Storm Warning" where someone not as crazy as all of us (who have followed this thing for a week and every model run) looks outside and thinks "this isn't a storm" and puts themself at risk?

People can’t even figure out the difference between a tornado watch and warning. But I agree with you when people hear “winter storm” they are thinking a foot of snow not a couple inches and wind. I’m not sure what the answer is but information needs to be better communicated with the public somehow. Current verbiage isn’t working.

[luckyweather]

1/2SM SN FZFG DRSN here at ORD currently.

Kind of looks like Mannheim at the MMF

[homedis]

Let's keep that radar filling in with mod snow all evening

[Chicago Storm]

2 minutes ago, luckyweather said:

Kind of looks like Mannheim at the MMF

South end of the airport, off Irving.

[sbnwx85]

Light snow has commenced. 

[chuckster2012]

Raining pretty good down here rn..

[mimillman]

Starting to get a bit windy out there 

[Harry]

27 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

18Z NAM products increased the total QPF across most of SW Michigan.  Flakes have started but are pretty light so far.

 

GRR has a nice afd. Wouldn't surprise me to see this county get upgraded to a blizzard warning. Like WDM I as well think the heaviest snows/Les will be further inland because of the stronger winds. 

[michaelmantis]

Now that is a nice temp drop from 30 degrees at 10 am to 5 degrees now (my backyard). 

[josh_4184]

Ready to be crushed wouldn't be surprised to see a few areas around my hit 30"+.  Biggert event I have ever experienced since moving here.

[KokomoWX]

Mixed rain/snow has made it to Kokomo.


.

[josh_4184]

Great AFD from APX, WNW flow areas could see 3' by Sunday, with the drifting I can only imagine some of these drift piles. 

Quote

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

...Oh the Weather Outside is (about to be) Frightful...

High Impact Weather is expected. Long duration winter storm will
lash northern lower and eastern upper Michigan with snow, strong
winds, and a potent winter chill...all coinciding the holiday travel
times...which can make road conditions dangerous to impassible for
an extended period of time Friday and even into Saturday for some
places.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast... A quickly deepening low pressure will
likely be in the vicinity of Buffalo and Toronto by the time we get
to Friday morning. A surge of synoptic moisture owing to a well-
developed conveyor of theta-e advection will be overhead, and cooler
air will be wrapping into the region. Owing to favorable jet
dynamics, the low pressure will be in the process of "bombing
out"...which is a surface pressure fall of 24mb in 24 hours... with
surface low pressure deepening through the day Friday as the system
pivots over Ontario. Meanwhile, two separate strong areas of high
pressure, one over the Canadian maritimes, and a strong arctic high
pressure over Montana, will provide a compression of the pressure
gradient with this system, leading to a very strong area of synoptic
flow associated with the system. The low pressure will slowly move
into northern Quebec by Saturday, and synoptic moisture will slowly
filter out of the area; however, owing to sufficient flow and cold
air, we will be socked into lingering areas of lake effect
instability, with W to WNW surface flow.

Primary Forecast Concerns...high potential for LIFE-THREATENING
weather conditions clashing with pre-holiday travel plans.

A large shield of precip, mainly snow with some rain mixed over Lake
Huron, will be pivoting across APX land Friday morning. Surface low
pressure centered over southern Ontario looks to deepen
considerably, likely falling under 970mb as the system reaches the
vicinity of North Bay, Ontario by Friday night. The result of this
rapid deepening low pressure, combined with a pinched pressure
gradient from two separate areas of high pressure (a 1036mb high
over Atlantic Canada, and a 1050mb or greater high over the northern
plains), will be an area of very strong synoptic flow associated
with the system as it draws in arctic air across the region. As we
go through the day Friday, temperatures will be in the teens, which
will lead to snow composition going from a wetter, more dense snow
Thursday night to a drier and powdery snow through the day Friday.
Looking at flow aloft, models are generally in agreement that the
strongest flow (associated with racing 925mb flow mixing down in
snow processes) may hold across the area until later Friday morning
into the afternoon.

Once this area of stronger flow builds, travel conditions will
deteriorate rapidly, as winds gusting 40mph to as high as 60mph
(areas along Lake Michigan may gust to 65mph+) and snow/blowing snow
will create blizzard conditions (visibilities will be near-zero to
zero), along with extensive blowing and drifting across the area.
Once this occurs, travel will be dangerous at best across the
region, with several roads largely becoming impassable owing to the
extensive blowing and drifting, especially Friday evening into the
overnight. The big danger with this will be that the snowfall will
not be evenly distributed across the landscape from the blowing and
drifting. There may be spots that see little snow cover, and other
areas covered in several feet-deep drifts, which can snarl travel on
area roads. Make no mistake about it... Friday into Friday night
will be when the most widespread dangerous travel conditions will
be. If you must go out and about, be sure to plan ahead and have
essential supplies in your vehicle in the event you become stranded
in this system.

These conditions will generally hold into Christmas Eve, even with
synoptic moisture slowly tapering Friday night into Saturday. This
may result in more intermittent snowfalls over the SE CWA by Friday
night, as a more lake effect oriented profile develops into the day
Saturday with flow turning more W to WNW. Regardless as to whether
snow will be falling or not, road conditions may be slow to improve
through the day Saturday as blowing and drifting continues. As far
as lake effect goes, there will be some advection of the instability
far inland owing to continues sfc flow maintaining at 15-25mph. So,
the impacts of the lake effect may be felt farther inland that
traditional lake effect belts...which may slow the process of
improving travel conditions at least through the first half of
Christmas Eve. The lake effect may become a little less widespread
late in the day on Christmas Eve, which may provide areas outside
the lake effect belts with some improvement, but snow will continue
to fall and blow around across NW lower and eastern upper.

As far as snow accumulations go, the highest overall totals will
favor NW lower and portions of Chippewa County in the eastern Yoop.
Areas of accumulations exceeding two feet by Saturday evening are
well within the realm of possibility across NW lower, with most
spots seeing at least a foot of snow. Across the eastern Yoop,
accumulations may reach two feet by Saturday evening. Elsewhere in
the south and eastern CWA, totals largely favor 8-12", with locally
higher amounts possible. It cannot be overstated... when winds of
this magnitude are expected with a system like this, snow amounts
will not matter in regard to whether high impacts are
expected...however, areas that see the greatest accumulations will be
subjected to higher end (and potentially even crippling) impacts
from this system, as more snow means the greater possibility of
significant drifting of snow (in some instances, several feet deep),
particularly in open areas. Blizzard warnings will remain in effect,
but will be more tiered across the region, to pinpoint higher impact
areas.

While the snow will be quite impactful, the biggest concern with
this system will be the aforementioned surge in wind. Owing to snow
piling up on trees and winds consistently gusting to 40-50mph,
widespread and longer duration power outages are possible across
northern Michigan.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

High Impact Weather Potential...still high due to lingering lake
effect into Christmas Day.

Lake effect will generally taper in coverage through Saturday night,
which should allow for some improvements in conditions (but largely
still suboptimal at best) to build across areas not in lake effect
belts. Flow will be WNW to NW into Christmas Day, and additional
lake effect accumulations are expected in the aformentioned snow
belts. It is entirely possible for some spots in WNW flow snow belts
in NW lower MI to approach three feet of snow by the end of Sunday,
but will be dependent on band orientation and exact wind direction.
The coverage of the snow showers will gradually taper into Monday,
as high pressure dries out the DGZ, and lowers inversion heights to
around or below the 850mb layer. Early on Monday, it is possible for
snow to still be occurring, but at a much lighter quip, across the
snow belts. The snow will eventually taper to just some lingering
flurries as ridging ahead of another low pressure system in the
plains begins to build. There remains a lot of uncertainty with the
track of this system, but there is confidence that this system will
be more of a generalized clipper system, with a quicker burst of
light snow. Eventually, above-normal temps may return around midweek
and linger into the New Year, but exact estimates as to how warm
temperatures get, and the duration of this will be determined in the
coming days.

 

[Jonger]

This is going to primarily be a lake effect event.

[josh_4184]

APX planning on staying a while at the office. Gotta feel for them and their families on X-Mas weekend. NWS gets a lot of flak but they are committed to their jobs and responsibility of trying to keep everyone as safe as possible.  

-

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Starting to blow and drift pretty good here. The stuff coming off the trees is falling like new snow. 
 

-8F gusting to 33mph

[josh_4184]

4 minutes ago, Jonger said:

This is going to primarily be a lake effect event.

Yea, or at least the most impacted areas. To bad the GOM tap was cutoff or this thing could have been beyond crazy for the whole sub.

[mississaugasnow]

4 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Yea, or at least the most impacted areas. To bad the GOM tap was cutoff or this thing could have been beyond crazy for the whole sub.

the eastern half was walking a fine line. Not sure if GOM was feeding moisture Detroit eastwards would be getting much snow

[Imneversatisfied]

14 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Great AFD from APX, WNW flow areas could see 3' by Sunday, with the drifting I can only imagine some of these drift piles. 

 

APX are the only place predicting Alpena stays too warm overnight and gets rain. It would cut into some of the best precip rates too. I only see two models showing that too. Hopefully they get that part wrong. Atleast for my sake lol 

[josh_4184]

10 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

the eastern half was walking a fine line. Not sure if GOM was feeding moisture Detroit eastwards would be getting much snow

True, Backend snow would be great. looks like Near Years weekend will be a full deluge with wide open GOM lol.  Sorry for the off topic. 

[tuanis]

Update: grass blades out front are now 90% covered. Looking at Google Maps, roads just about everywhere are slow moving.

I hope western LP Michigan gets absolutely walloped (but everyone takes precautions and makes it through just fine).