Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm Part 2

[tuanis]

2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Nice flakes under the heavier returns. 

They’ve been nice lookin flakes for sure. Well-formed dendrites clumping together.

[Hoosier]

Despite the very cold air pouring in, I think there's some possibility of ratios actually trending worse or at least not improving much at a given location as time goes on.  There is more of a DGZ earlier on, and then later in the event there is little DGZ with winds continuing to increase.  Will be interesting to see how it shakes out.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Visibility at about 1/2 mile currently. Would have loved to keep this up all day, but the daytime flakeage is a bonus. 

[madwx]

still snowing here, the snow has been pixie dust through the daylight hours but the roads are becoming increasingly horrible with the wind picking up

 

Down to 1 F here.  should head below 0 within the hour

[Hoosier]

Starting to get some scattered whitening of paved surfaces.

Wow already down to 10 in Aurora.  Still in the low 30s here.

[Hoosier]

The initial temperature drop behind the front seems to be occurring faster than progged.  As an example the 17z HRRR had about 25 at ORD and it's currently 22.

Models do tend to have some trouble keeping up in rapid advective scenarios.  This goes the other way as well... we have all seen WAA be more robust than progged.

[OHweather]

2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

How things might go tonight through tomorrow night when the winds max out. Remember this event well, January 26, 2014. Shows that not much snow is needed for truly gnarly conditions. We don't often get northern Plains weather (with notable exception of 2013-14 and 14-15 winters), but when it happens, the wide open areas outside of the heart of the Chicago metro are prime for blizzard conditions and significant drifting.

The morning AFD update from my office notes that consideration is still being given to upgrading a larger portion of the area to a Blizzard Warning. Think that there's likely to be large sections of north south roads, including some of the interstates, shut down due to blowing and drifting snow tonight through tomorrow night. Hope most people don't chance driving in those conditions.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

I'm pretty worried about something similar playing out in parts of NW Ohio tomorrow through at least early Saturday, where they're getting 2-4/3-6" of snow with 50-60mph wind gusts for a very prolonged period. Just for the sake of picking your brain a bit, do you know if there was blowable snow already on the ground that made that worse? And I guess my other question, was the strongest wind with the heaviest snow, or did it occur afterwards? Because to me, the new snow amounts, wind and duration of it in NW Ohio (which, like northern IL outside of the Chicago area, is actually quite flat and open) seems at least as bad as what resulted in the impacts described in that entry, though the strongest winds probably start ramping up after the heaviest snow. I could see parts of NW Ohio being absolutely crippled tomorrow into the weekend though. 

[RogueWaves]

45 minutes ago, Owensnow said:

it seriously looks like we’re going to get the worst of the bruising down here in the south east corner of Michigan and southwestern Ontario across the lake into Toledo and northern OH

 

 

I mean apart from the lake effect on the west side of Michigan

DTX map says typ 4-6 storm

[Chambana]

Winds really getting after it now. Heavy band of snow just off to my west, things should really get going here soon. Really hoping I can squeeze out 3.5”

[SchaumburgStormer]

6/-15 out here with winds already gusting to 25

[kevlon62]

Did not take much.

[homedis]

As soon as the winds picked up here, the flakes are clearly getting pulverized to pixie dust

[beavis1729]

Looks like Denver (officially at DIA) hit -24 this morning.  That's the 3rd coldest daily low temp on record in December:

-25 on 12/22/1990

-25 on 12/24/1876

All-time coldest is -29 on 1/9/1875.

Also, Denver's coldest daily max temp on record in December is -8 on 12/21/1983 (high -8, low -21).  There's a slight chance of this being broken or tied today, but unfortunately I think it will warm up to around -5.

[kevlon62]

You guys to the east enjoy this.

[Chambana]

Sipping IPAs and watching the awesome conditions right now. Sign me up for this. 

[Jendoc]

13/feels like -5 here    I swear temp was just 25 a few minutes ago.  Winds have really picked up.  Thankful to be working from home today.   

[Hoosier]

Here's something that's kind of hard to believe.  Chicago's record daily snowfall for 12/22 is 3.6", which is tied with December 21 for the lowest value in December.

Also, there have only been 2 snowfalls over 2" on 12/22 -- in 1953 and 2009.

[sbnwx85]

Based on social media comments on my station's pages, people aren't quite grasping the seriousness of this. They're getting caught up on snow amounts, most saying it won't be that bad. I'm sure many are going to push it to make it home for Christmas. It's going to be a long weekend for first responders.

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Based on social media comments on my station's pages, people aren't quite grasping the seriousness of this. They're getting caught up on snow amounts, most saying it won't be that bad. I'm sure many are going to push it to make it home for Christmas. It's going to be a long weekend for first responders.

That's the potentially negative thing about the storm trending downward.  Many more people may risk going out.

[mississaugasnow]

5 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Based on social media comments on my station's pages, people aren't quite grasping the seriousness of this. They're getting caught up on snow amounts, most saying it won't be that bad. I'm sure many are going to push it to make it home for Christmas. It's going to be a long weekend for first responders.

same thing here in Ontario 

[Chicago Storm]

On 12/21/2022 at 12:09 AM, Chicago Storm said:

First and final call, 1.7” ORD.


.

bust high.

[Chicago Storm]

13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Here's something that's kind of hard to believe.  Chicago's record daily snowfall for 12/22 is 3.6", which is tied with December 21 for the lowest value in December.

Also, there have only been 2 snowfalls over 2" on 12/22 -- in 1953 and 2009.

and it's going to stay the record, too.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Alek going to bust about 4.5” high

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

The initial temperature drop behind the front seems to be occurring faster than progged.  As an example the 17z HRRR had about 25 at ORD and it's currently 22.

Models do tend to have some trouble keeping up in rapid advective scenarios.  This goes the other way as well... we have all seen WAA be more robust than progged.

In addition, I believe the frontal position may be a tad east as well, but haven't had time to really check that.

[Floydbuster]

13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

That's the potentially negative thing about the storm trending downward.  Many more people may risk going out.

Funny thing is here in Ohio, we seem to expecting a bit worse than we were thinking earlier.

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

and it's going to stay the record, too.

Regardless, it's mama Hoosier's birthday and I'm glad she gets to enjoy some snow.  

[Jendoc]

14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

That's the potentially negative thing about the storm trending downward.  Many more people may risk going out.

My husband is a dispatcher for a towing company and he was scheduled off tomorrow, he is now scheduled to work for double time and they have called all drivers to work.   I hope people pay attention to the road condition reports and stay home.    

[luckyweather]

and it's going to stay the record, too.

do you think tomorrow’s wind will create a multi hour ground stop at ord?

[Cary67]

11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

bust high.

Might cover the grass entirely with this. Tough accomplishment this winter so far.

[Hoosier]

Think we could still pull around 4" here.  Or at least 3".  Short range guidance is a bit iffy but it literally had 0" snow accumulation up until now, so there's a little head start so to speak.