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Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm
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52 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

HRR seems like it's trying to strengthen the low in Western Ohio.  That would slow things down a bit and increase snow a bit for the western Ohio and SE MI crew.  

The rare last minute improvement for the region. Still if you go off the models verbatim it's 7-10" on the GFS and 2-4" on the NAM, not great disagreement this close to snowfall

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Hoping this snow band widens throughout the morning and afternoon as the low deepens and better upper air support rounds trough. Band pretty narrow right now. If it stays how it is now I will probably be looking at 1-2in. Hoping for 3-4in like hi res has been suggesting. Hrrr off it's rocker suggesting 5-6in. 

The HRRR isn’t off it’s rocker, if you’re not looking at the Kuchera output.


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2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Looking like some good banding of snow squalls into Saturday via Lake MI after the main event, but position of banding TBD. Either way looks like a fun but couple days. I probably won't get a liquid equivalent total til Saturday. Rain gauge can will likely freeze solid with flash freeze of rain to snow. 

 

 

Banding gonna hit DTW, yby, and just N of me. SOP for these parts :rolleyes:

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8 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

4 inches total here despite 0.47" liquid.  That is only about an 8.5 to 1 ratio.  I expected much higher than that given the cold atmosphere.  The flake size was quite small throughout.

Would be curious to know if there are any other ratio reports from around there to get an overall sense.

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15 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Yeah, but its long duration. Hours and hours of pixies

And maybe I'm looking at different models, but if anything, most of them are trending drier with weaker forcing for the Detroit area specifically, as the system is no longer getting as deep as originally expected and the deepening is at a slower pace.

That includes the GFS and FV3 compared to yesterday's runs.

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How things might go tonight through tomorrow night when the winds max out. Remember this event well, January 26, 2014. Shows that not much snow is needed for truly gnarly conditions. We don't often get northern Plains weather (with notable exception of 2013-14 and 14-15 winters), but when it happens, the wide open areas outside of the heart of the Chicago metro are prime for blizzard conditions and significant drifting.

The morning AFD update from my office notes that consideration is still being given to upgrading a larger portion of the area to a Blizzard Warning. Think that there's likely to be large sections of north south roads, including some of the interstates, shut down due to blowing and drifting snow tonight through tomorrow night. Hope most people don't chance driving in those conditions. f5b803bcb283bde820f17b87de894ef0.jpg

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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