Floydbuster Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: Curious if this will mean a quicker hitting snow if cf is faster and stronger caa eating at western edge of snow. Hi res hinted at that in previous runs but 0z seemed to have improved it a bit. I'd prefer it earlier. I'd rather have it move out before Christmas Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: I'd prefer it earlier. I'd rather have it move out before Christmas Day. For you yes. Here not so much or I won't see hardly any snow if it moves through too fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 8 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: For you yes. Here not so much or I won't see hardly any snow if it moves through too fast True. I was speaking for NE Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 22 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Saw someone share this on FB I've noticed over the years that models are often too slow with the speed of CAA behind the front in these setups (and also sometimes too slow with the front itself). Seems to be a bigger issue in the Plains but it happens elsewhere too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I've noticed over the years that models are often too slow with the speed of CAA behind the front in these setups (and also sometimes too slow with the front itself). Seems to be a bigger issue in the Plains but it happens elsewhere too. Topography out there definitely influences it then it gets in Plains and is like YEET. Lol. Apparently KC area getting a good glaze of ice now. Don't remember that being forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 14 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Topography out there definitely influences it then it gets in Plains and is like YEET. Lol. Apparently KC area getting a good glaze of ice now. Don't remember that being forecasted. My local NWS forecast near Akron, OH has heavy snow earlier than before. Emphasizing Thursday night more than Friday mid-day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 5 hours ago, Torchageddon said: From TWN. That 50-75 contour is incredible and I'm smack in the middle of it. Sorry Toronto however I don't buy one bit into maps like this and it was a snapshot from this morning. Stoked for the S Ontario crew! Looks like a big one... Always wanted to see a proper blizzard. I'm a bit jealous I'll be honest. I have a buddy who's supposed to drive Guelph to Hanover for the weekend... I'm trying to get him to leave early or I don't know if he'll make it at all! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 D5 call looking $$$ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 55 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: D5 call looking $$$ may get there a little different than planned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorePunch Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 2 hours ago, harrisale said: Stoked for the S Ontario crew! Looks like a big one... Always wanted to see a proper blizzard. I'm a bit jealous I'll be honest. I have a buddy who's supposed to drive Guelph to Hanover for the weekend... I'm trying to get him to leave early or I don't know if he'll make it at all! Looks like near Blizzard Conditions for Detroit and Windsor tomorrow afternoon. DTX had a strongly worded AFD detailing wind gusts in excess of 60mph. Definitely liking the trends for this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Sounds like LOT was considering going with a blizzard warning for my area here in rural IKK along the IN border. Upped the totals to 3-6 and I’m liking the higher end of things. Final call 5.5 inches and a ton of wind 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 LOT bumped totals an inch for I-55 and east, now 3-5". My p&c now has 3-7". Also considered upgrading the same area to a Blizzard Warning, but don't think it'll quite meet visibility/wind criteria. 9z HRRR and RAP look pretty solid. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: LOT bumped totals an inch for I-55 and east, now 3-5". My p&c now has 3-7". Also considered upgrading the same area to a Blizzard Warning, but don't think it'll quite meet visibility/wind criteria. 9z HRRR and RAP look pretty solid. Yeah I noticed one county north of me (Ford) upped their totals from 2-4 to 3-6. Champaign it looks like is sticking to 2-4. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigHoss48192 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 I just drove into work (downtown Detroit) and I don't recall the last time I saw a winter storm warning posted on the DOT digital billboards). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 My expectations have been exceeded again. Snow ended around 3am. Current temp of -6F. Full throttle winter. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 8 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Let’s go! Going to be wild for a bit around here dude. Hopefully you don’t have to be on the roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 I’m going to attempt to go skiing today before the winds kick in. Gotta get that powder! There should be a nice window of calm today before things start rocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Hoping this snow band widens throughout the morning and afternoon as the low deepens and better upper air support rounds trough. Band pretty narrow right now. If it stays how it is now I will probably be looking at 1-2in. Hoping for 3-4in like hi res has been suggesting. Hrrr off it's rocker suggesting 5-6in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 43 minutes ago, King James said: Let’s go! Going to be wild for a bit around here dude. Hopefully you don’t have to be on the roads I have to work in it. Though hopefully get off before it really gets bad. Even though the snow part will be over tomorrow, the cold and wind part is going to be really "fun" for those of us out in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: D5 call looking $$$ Standard LOT snow map layout in effect 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 geos really left a curse over what used to be the chosen land 2 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 9% chance for Alek to hit/exceed 8". LOT knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Front has already blasted through here, and down to 19 degrees. The 5-hour period of snow begins here around 9am. Models generally converge in the 0.15-0.20" range for qpf, so should fit nicely in that 2-3" window. Not even gonna try to measure this, I'll just go with the average between whatever falls at DVN/MLI lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Front has already blasted through here, and down to 19 degrees. The 5-hour period of snow begins here around 9am. Models generally converge in the 0.15-0.20" range for qpf, so should fit nicely in that 2-3" window. Not even gonna try to measure this, I'll just go with the average between whatever falls at DVN/MLI lol. Our temp just fell below zero. It's actually not blowing that much, yet, so the snow is still measurable. I was at 3 inches at 6am, so I'll probably end up with 4-5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 I haven’t watched TV weather in ages, but decided to flip on channel 9 this morning. Their “go to” weather model is apparently the IBM Graf model. Lol, interesting. Alek down through Lansing jackpot with 6 and change FWIW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Some flurry action in Poplar Grove. I’m surrounded by a few houses, but mainly open fields. The blowing & drifting should be solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Dropped down to -9F with WCs in the -30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Everyone’s favorite model the SREF is pretty consistent at 9z. Looks like ORD plumes have all but 1 member above 4”, a cluster between 4-6”, and a cluster of 8-10”. The mean is skewed high as a result, but think the lower cluster could pan out, albeit highly ratio-dependant. Some other stations I’m rooting for: Benton Harbor, MI: mean of 28.5” GRR: mean of 20.5” South Bend: mean of 18.7” Toledo: mean of 3.8” Lansing, aka the snow desert of the Midwest: 9.1” Indy: 4.7” The plumes in SW MI are some of the most impressive SREF outputs I’ve seen for this area with a cluster at 17-25” and a cluster at 25-35”. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Front already through here. Came through at about 4 AM Temp spiked up to 26 overnight. Back down to 14 with NW winds gusting up to 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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