SchaumburgStormer Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 I've seen worse snowfall maps for N IL today. Keep the trend going. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 18z GFS QPF through late Friday PM early Saturday AM... suppose you could have Chicago somewhere in a 6-8" range if we stick with a 15:1 average ratio or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: This is a good loop to see some of the changes that have occurred within guidance over the past few days. Notice the changes with the lobe around the Hudson, the lead wave in the main through becoming more amped, and changes with the ridging near the East Coast and along the West Coast. So Mondays little disturbance that raced up north into Canada killed us? That disruptive the lobe around Hudson? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: I've seen worse snowfall maps for N IL today. Keep the trend going. post of the day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, Chicago916 said: I'm not a MET but I have to think the GFS is undoing the precipitation to the west of a rapidly strengthening low? Interesting. Could it be drought feedback (looked like the vast majority of the CONUS was at least abnormally dry in the most drought monitor), coupled with the fact that this is true, Arctic air [very cold and dry]? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 LOT updated snow forecast range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: So Mondays little disturbance that raced up north into Canada killed us? That disruptive the love around Hudson? That was always expected to be there, but the evolution of it has changed with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Kaner88 said: LOT updated snow forecast range. Based Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kaner88 said: LOT updated snow forecast range. This is a fair forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, A-L-E-K said: Based Looks like the friction and uplift from the buildings might squeeze out an extra inch or two. Congrats. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: I've seen worse snowfall maps for N IL today. Keep the trend going. Agree, a continuation at 00z would be encouraging 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 The GFS SLP from HR 42-54 doesn't look realistic to me. Seems like it should scoot more west prior to heading north. Resulting in a further south track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 This is a fair forecastWe dont need much to it get back to ne illinois. Baby steps and a slight trajectory change upstream and you have something. Model bleed has slowed for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, jlauderdal said: 12 minutes ago, mimillman said: This is a fair forecast We dont need much to it get back to ne illinois. Baby steps and a slight trajectory change upstream and you have something. Model bleed has slowed for now. I'd say we're in the scabbing over phase rn, now we just need rapid cellular reconstruction and the wound shall heal. Still have a couple days. Edit: Don't care if it's a pipe dream, some of us troll about palm trees and some of us default to the worst from day 1 so I'm gonna cram my shamelessly tone deaf optimism into every one of your faces 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Man, the entertainment value of the storm thread is priceless. Watching weenies' emotions ebb and flow with each model run, especially the Chicago posters. This is still going to be a major-impact storm, whether you get three or nine. I've been kicked back over here in FWAland absolutely satisfied with my incoming 3" and 50 mph gusts. I'm looking forward to sitting in front of the picture window and enjoying the blizzard. Will be a white Christmas for almost all in the subforum, and after the past several Decembers, what's to be disappointed about? 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Minor changes in pressure has significant changes in the low places on the ensembles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Well, we have had plenty of 6-12" storms where 25-30 mph winds give cute drifts...might as well go for the rare 3-6" blizzard with 60+ mph winds. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 I don’t think I’ve ever been under a Winter Storm Warning while also having a Winter Storm Watch following on it’s heels but here we are. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 17 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Minor changes in pressure has significant changes in the low places on the ensembles. More then likely outcome but just looking at that and the placement of other features ( 500mb/700mb etc I have a difficult time buying that track that far north? Via the placement of the other features I would expect to see the slp down towards the se part of the state! Someone feel free to correct me if I am wrong? Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sielicki Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 59 minutes ago, Kaner88 said: 18z GFS QPF through late Friday PM early Saturday AM... suppose you could have Chicago somewhere in a 6-8" range if we stick with a 15:1 average ratio or so 15:1? Why stop there! If you want hopium just go straight to 30:1. Oh man, this thing is going to bury all of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 59 minutes ago, Kaner88 said: LOT updated snow forecast range. They must have already took this down. I love how they kept the little sliver of 6-8 for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 46 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Man, the entertainment value of the storm thread is priceless. Watching weenies' emotions ebb and flow with each model run, especially the Chicago posters. This is still going to be a major-impact storm, whether you get three or nine. I've been kicked back over here in FWAland absolutely satisfied with my incoming 3" and 50 mph gusts. I'm looking forward to sitting in front of the picture window and enjoying the blizzard. Will be a white Christmas for almost all in the subforum, and after the past several Decembers, what's to be disappointed about? Voice of reason…/\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Quote Knock on wood of course, but all things considered, you seem to be a good spot right now. Psst - he doen't do wind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 hour ago, SolidIcewx said: Even the social media is quiet. Definitely being patient late tonight or tomorrow we will see something from them Im sure Plenty of time for DTX. They like to see the whites of the eyes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 20 minutes ago, sielicki said: 15:1? Why stop there! If you want hopium just go straight to 30:1. Oh man, this thing is going to bury all of us! Not sure what you're getting at, as RC explained in the first thread these snows are unlikely to be 10:1 but will also struggle to reach the kind of ratios that spit out higher numbers via the Kuchera method. Somewhere in the ballpark of 15:1 ratios appears appropriate for this storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 11 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Psst - he doen't do wind. ???? Is that post you quoted in another thread? I went to look for it in this thread and natta?. **Edit*** I found it.. And yeah you are right I am not a fan of the wind especially not with the kind of cold involved. I enjoy being out in it and the wind makes it hard to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just a bit of range here MKX... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorePunch Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 I wonder if DTX saw the offices out west jumping the gun and decided to be more disciplined? All speculation at this point. Anyhow, the trends look great for Lower MI. Should be a solid wind machine and several inches of snow for Detroit up through Flint. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just a bit of range here MKX... Good shot of verifying with those ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 They must have already took this down. I love how they kept the little sliver of 6-8 for Chicago. I fixed that jankiness near the lake in Chicago. Didn't have time to fix it until after all the products were out. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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