BrewCrewMI Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: I mean for the areas not under a blizzard warning aaaah, duh. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 hour ago, Cary67 said: Should copy and paste this for future reference. It has definitely become the new norm... The ridiculously progressive northern stream flow makes it too difficult for any storm to dig and become too amped before it gets sheared apart by confluence.The days when we could get legitimately deep/amped storms such as Jan '99, Dec. '06, Dec. '09 or GHD 1 (2011) seem like a distant memory at this point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Same. Think we’ll be able to stack some nice dendrites overnight Not seeing anything from the 8th floor of Meriter Hospital.Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 16 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Euro def isn't what it used to be. Better off using tarot cards while trying to forecast anything beyond 72hrs these days lol. lol, yes. And that's just 3 days worth of runs. Euro didn't used to be like that. Remember outside of this timeframe, it was showing an east coast blizzard. Then moved 1000 miles west, and now in the last 3 days is escaping back east. Crazy awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TravisWx Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Np. You're just paying it forward. Don't forget to bump your orig post in about 24 hrs Will do. I plan on posting images and video during/after the system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 22, 2022 Author Share Posted December 22, 2022 26 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Garbage model aren't they all, aren't they all... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arctic Octopus Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 HRRR looks to be weaker on that lead shortwave through hour 6. May help with main low consolidation as it tilts negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Well for maybe the first time ever, the trend is our friend in Toledo 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 0.24” of precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 hour ago, mimillman said: Now that’s just very wrong How is that wrong? I have lived in this area for the majority of my life. The best storms go west and east of Michigan, it warms up and we lose the few inches we manage to get. Lansing is too far from the lake to get anything other than mood flakes, good storms that make it nearly every time have mixing issues as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, LansingWeather said: How is that wrong? I have lived in this area for the majority of my life. The best storms go west and east of Michigan, it warms up and we lose the few inches we manage to get. Lansing is too far from the lake to get anything other than mood flakes, good storms that make it nearly every time have mixing issues as well. Yup stuck in between big dog tracks/transfer zone. It is what it is. Once in awhile we can get a foot plus storm but prob happens once every 5 years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 10 minutes ago, LansingWeather said: How is that wrong? I have lived in this area for the majority of my life. The best storms go west and east of Michigan, it warms up and we lose the few inches we manage to get. Lansing is too far from the lake to get anything other than mood flakes, good storms that make it nearly every time have mixing issues as well. So, here’s a map of average snowfall in the Midwest. I’m sure Des Moines, Indy, St Louis, Chicago, or a number of other major Midwest metropolitan areas would trade you when it comes to snow in particular 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 hour ago, LansingWeather said: Thats because the climo here is among the worst in the midwest lol. Only saving grace are the lake when add a lot of mood flakes. So then who in the midwest and northeast has had a good start to this winter? I must have missed it lol. There is no truth to that statement whatsoever. This has been an abnormally slow start to winter everywhere, and for someone from a different area they need to know that. Dec 2020 literally no one but MI was enjoying a decent start, and we were one of the best spots in Dec 2017. Everyone gets hits and misses. If it was true that one area was a void, it would show up in climate data. And it does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: So, here’s a map of average snowfall in the Midwest. I’m sure Des Moines, Indy, St Louis, Chicago, or a number of other major Midwest metropolitan areas would trade you when it comes to snow in particular Exactly. And mood flakes traces don't add in anything, so it's silly to say mood flakes are the saving grace. Everyone gets hits. Everyone gets misses. It's called weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 11 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Yup stuck in between big dog tracks/transfer zone. It is what it is. Once in awhile we can get a foot plus storm but prob happens once every 5 years. I can count the number of 12" plus events on 1 hand since the 99 storm. I was expecting this one to have a good shot at that, but I guess I was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 56 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: How big of drifts you think? Idk. Its going to be a fun experience but I'm usually not a fan of drifty snow because you get bare spots lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 minute ago, LansingWeather said: I can count the number of 12" plus events on 1 hand since the 99 storm. I was expecting this one to have a good shot at that, but I guess I was wrong. We're not talking about the start to this winter. Josh can turd polish our snow avg vs other cities all he wants, but we miss out on the big dogs. We discuss this every winter, and nothing changes. It's just the way it is. Life goes on... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: So then who in the midwest and northeast has had a good start to this winter? I must have missed it lol. There is no truth to that statement whatsoever. This has been an abnormally slow start to winter everywhere, and for someone from a different area they need to know that. Dec 2020 literally no one but MI was enjoying a decent start, and we were one of the best spots in Dec 2017. Everyone gets hits and misses. If it was true that one area was a void, it would show up in climate data. And it does not. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 So the 0z HRRR was different. Heads up cyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: We're not talking about the start to this winter. Josh can turd polish our snow avg vs other cities all he wants, but we miss out on the big dogs. We discuss this every winter, and nothing changes. It's just the way it is. Life goes on... Just in case you missed this… ok I’m done now. Sooooo, how about that SREF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 minute ago, Chicago WX said: So the 0z HRRR was different. Heads up cyclone NAM follows the trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 minute ago, mimillman said: Just in case you missed this… ok I’m done now. Sooooo, how about that SREF Yea anyone can paint brush their own snow map in paint, even if you have windows 98. Nicely painted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: So the 0z HRRR was different. Heads up cyclone Different as in better (for snow) or worse? I dont typically check those meso models out. EDIT: what matters is how the snow falls over the year, in most of michigan outside of the snowbelts its nickel and dimes. In places east and west its usually a couple bigger storms to get the same total. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said: Yea anyone can paint brush their own snow map in paint, even if you have windows 98. Nicely painted. I actually used windows 96 for this one 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: We're not talking about the start to this winter. Josh can turd polish our snow avg vs other cities all he wants, but we miss out on the big dogs. We discuss this every winter, and nothing changes. It's just the way it is. Life goes on... Lmao. Actually we ARE talking about the start to this winter. That's exactly what was said to the new york city person who moved to Port huron. "Sorry for the slow start". Then suddenly we segway OT. There's a LOT more to weather than a big dog. And back to the original comment. Columbus hasn't had a 6"+ storm since 2015. Detroit has had about a dozen. We are about to get our 3rd Christmas snowstorm since 2017. Poor us. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Latest FV3 might come through with another run for Michigan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Fwiw, not a single 21z SREF member is below 5" here. I'll take it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, LansingWeather said: Different as in better (for snow) or worse? I dont typically check those meso models out. EDIT: what matters is how the snow falls over the year, in most of michigan outside of the snowbelts its nickel and dimes. In places east and west its usually a couple bigger storms to get the same total. I'd love to see ANYTHING other than heresay that backs that up lol. Ie stats. Last time. We all get hits and we all get misses 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 hour ago, Scottie16 said: So the question is are the models behind with the frontal timing, or are they behind with the temperature drop behind the front? There's a difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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