Chicago Storm Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 GFS goes absolute nuke mode starting around 00z Fri. Hi-res guidance delays that. Don't expect the world around Chicago, but it may be a nowcasty type of event. Still a way to get 6" or even more in the city (esp downtown) IF things break right.You need to let this one go.. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Third straight run of outright halving QPF in Chicago from last night's 0z Euro... from 1.2" to 0.15" in just 36 hours. Not a great performance by model guidance across the board with this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, Kaner88 said: Third straight run of outright halving QPF in Chicago from last night's 0z Euro... from 1.2" to 0.15" in just 36 hours. Not a great performance by model guidance across the board with this storm. Except the NAM, don’t want people to forget that for next time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, mimillman said: Except the NAM, don’t want people to forget that for next time That was, what, the 78hr NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Pretty much a no win position for the forecasters. Fantastic model agreement showing a widespread paralyzing blizzard over one of the biggest travel days of the year. You have to beat the drum for the public, but even tempering expectations would not have you expecting this level of bed shitting by the models. Real tough look to go from 10-12+ to T-3 in 48 hours. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 GRR going with blizzard warnings for those of us on the west side National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1217 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 LATEST UPDATE... Update .UPDATE... Issued at 1217 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 After coordinating with nearby offices, we are planning to issue a Winter Storm Warning for our eastern counties from Thursday evening until Saturday morning (likely 7 am). For our western CWA very likely we will issue a blizzard warning from Thursday evening through Saturday afternoon. The latest model trends over the past 3 runs of those model have stopped backing off on QPF and continue to support the idea of sustained winds in the 25 mph range with gusts to 40 mph on Friday. So the reason to have a blizzard warning over the western counties is that there would be significantly more snow during the day on Friday to blow around then there would be over our eastern counties. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Not sure on amounts but still Friday should be a fun winter day. Happy 1st day of Winter today all. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 35 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The lack of a deep moisture feed must have something to do with it. Models show the deep moisture surging up the east coast and into southeastern Canada... pretty far away from Michigan. I remember GHD 1 well. That storm had a big ball of deep gulf moisture on top of the low as it ejected toward the lakes. That's what we need. The references to GHD 1 is like Bears fans recalling 1985. Too many pieces have to fall in place to get a storm of that magnitude here. And 98% of the time they don't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Light snow this morning. So it begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 from my experiences with the normies, people are going to do a lot of complaining when this one does what it's gonna do 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Considering this is only at 42 hours, it's a decent spread in surface low position/strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 6 hours ago, Powerball said: Will be interesting to see if the other global models (NAM may never get a clue) start to catch on to a 06z GFS solution by the 12z runs. Would need blizzard warnings across all of Lower MI for that, easily. 6 hours ago, Powerball said: BTW, DTW finally issued a Winter Storm Watch for all of its CWA. They're hitting the blizzard wording fairly strong too. Didn't get too specific with amounts, other than calling for the potential of at least 5-6". Are you in TX for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 This might be the most empty feeling Winter Storm Warning I can recall. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Sciascia said: This might be the most empty feeling Winter Storm Warning I can recall. no question. Time to issue a Travelers Advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Are you in TX for this? Yes. Still, rooting for y'all to get a big dog, plus, there's shit else to talk about down here besides freezing my ass off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said: Still 1009 to 975, that's pretty impressive. I've seen better def band snows with 995 lows. GFS at this point is a fair bit deeper than the other models. Even the EURO only gets to ~980mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Remember what I said about Indiana and Michigan folks will feel the trend? Have a gander at the 12z Euro. And it ain’t done yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, Powerball said: GFS at this point is a fair bit deeper than the other models. Even the EURO only gets to ~980mb. 974 mb over Huron 18z Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 56 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: I don't by it deepening that quickly I'm not sure I buy it either lol. Highly dynamic setup though and I would not be surprised to see quicker deepening than the non-GFS models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, RogueWaves said: 974 mb over Huron 18z Friday But the GFS had it that low over the Thumb, which was my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, Powerball said: GFS at this point is a fair bit deeper than the other models. Even the EURO only gets to ~980mb. NAM hits 971 on latest run by 00z Sat. Of course that's centered NE of Lake Huron by then. LES will be cranked at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, mimillman said: Remember what I said about Indiana and Michigan folks will feel the trend? Have a gander at the 12z Euro. And it ain’t done yet Dude. We get it you're sore from bad trends, but seriously? Troll elsewhere 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Brian D said: NAM hits 971 on latest run by 00z Sat. Of course that's centered NE of Lake Huron by then. LES will be cranked at that point. Yeah, the NW flow LES belts should still do well if the synoptic snows are underwhelming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Just now, RogueWaves said: Dude. We get it you're sore from bad trends, but seriously? Troll elsewhere I’m not sore, threw in the towel long ago, just trying to discuss realistic outcomes with the board 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Powerball said: But the GFS had it that low over the Thumb, which was my point. GFS always too amped. My point was they aren't as far apart at end of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: GFS always too amped. My point was they aren't as far apart at end of the day In terms of overall evolution, yeah. But on a micro level, how quicky it deepens and takes on a negative tilt will dictate the extent of snowfall and blizzard conditions the further SE in Michigan you get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Dude. We get it you're sore from bad trends, but seriously? Troll elsewhere Thread teetering toward trainwreck 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Powerball said: In terms of overall evolution, yeah. But on a micro level, how quicky it deepens and takes on a negative tilt will dictate the extent of snowfall and blizzard conditions the further SE in Michigan you get. Yes, ofc. I want the most amped-up option on the table to verify I just think GFS is being the GFS at this point. Every swings for the fences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Christmas LES gonna be good. GFS bombs to 961 Sat am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: You need to let this one go. . Just some counterbalance to the negative nellying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now