Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm
 Share

Recommended Posts

Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

Curious if this will mean a quicker hitting snow if cf is faster and stronger caa eating at western edge of snow. Hi res hinted at that in previous runs but 0z seemed to have improved it a bit. 

I'd prefer it earlier. I'd rather have it move out before Christmas Day.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Saw someone share this on FB

received_669548198287780.jpeg

I've noticed over the years that models are often too slow with the speed of CAA behind the front in these setups (and also sometimes too slow with the front itself).  Seems to be a bigger issue in the Plains but it happens elsewhere too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I've noticed over the years that models are often too slow with the speed of CAA behind the front in these setups (and also sometimes too slow with the front itself).  Seems to be a bigger issue in the Plains but it happens elsewhere too.

Topography out there definitely influences it then it gets in Plains and is like YEET. Lol. Apparently KC area getting a good glaze of ice now. Don't remember that being forecasted. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Topography out there definitely influences it then it gets in Plains and is like YEET. Lol. Apparently KC area getting a good glaze of ice now. Don't remember that being forecasted. 

My local NWS forecast near Akron, OH has heavy snow earlier than before. Emphasizing Thursday night more than Friday mid-day.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

5 hours ago, Torchageddon said:

From TWN. That 50-75 contour is incredible and I'm smack in the middle of it. Sorry Toronto however I don't buy one bit into maps like this and it was a snapshot from this morning.

Stoked for the S Ontario crew! Looks like a big one... Always wanted to see a proper blizzard. I'm a bit jealous I'll be honest. I have a buddy who's supposed to drive Guelph to Hanover for the weekend... I'm trying to get him to leave early or I don't know if he'll make it at all!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, harrisale said:

 

Stoked for the S Ontario crew! Looks like a big one... Always wanted to see a proper blizzard. I'm a bit jealous I'll be honest. I have a buddy who's supposed to drive Guelph to Hanover for the weekend... I'm trying to get him to leave early or I don't know if he'll make it at all!

Looks like near Blizzard Conditions for Detroit and Windsor tomorrow afternoon. DTX had a strongly worded AFD detailing wind gusts in excess of 60mph. Definitely liking the trends for this one. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

LOT bumped totals an inch for I-55 and east, now 3-5". My p&c now has 3-7". Also considered upgrading the same area to a Blizzard Warning, but don't think it'll quite meet visibility/wind criteria. 9z HRRR and RAP look pretty solid. 

Yeah I noticed one county north of me (Ford) upped their totals from 2-4 to 3-6. Champaign it looks like is sticking to 2-4. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hoping this snow band widens throughout the morning and afternoon as the low deepens and better upper air support rounds trough. Band pretty narrow right now. If it stays how it is now I will probably be looking at 1-2in. Hoping for 3-4in like hi res has been suggesting. Hrrr off it's rocker suggesting 5-6in. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, King James said:

Let’s go! Going to be wild for a bit around here dude. Hopefully you don’t have to be on the roads 

I have to work in it. Though hopefully get off before it really gets bad. Even though the snow part will be over tomorrow, the cold and wind part is going to be really "fun" for those of us out in it. :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Front has already blasted through here, and down to 19 degrees.  The 5-hour period of snow begins here around 9am.  Models generally converge in the 0.15-0.20" range for qpf, so should fit nicely in that 2-3" window.  Not even gonna try to measure this, I'll just go with the average between whatever falls at DVN/MLI lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Front has already blasted through here, and down to 19 degrees.  The 5-hour period of snow begins here around 9am.  Models generally converge in the 0.15-0.20" range for qpf, so should fit nicely in that 2-3" window.  Not even gonna try to measure this, I'll just go with the average between whatever falls at DVN/MLI lol.

Our temp just fell below zero.  It's actually not blowing that much, yet, so the snow is still measurable.  I was at 3 inches at 6am, so I'll probably end up with 4-5 inches.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Everyone’s favorite model the SREF is pretty consistent at 9z. Looks like ORD plumes have all but 1 member above 4”, a cluster between 4-6”, and a cluster of 8-10”. The mean is skewed high as a result, but think the lower cluster could pan out, albeit highly ratio-dependant.

Some other stations I’m rooting for:

Benton Harbor, MI: mean of 28.5”

GRR: mean of 20.5”

South Bend: mean of 18.7”

Toledo: mean of 3.8”

Lansing, aka the snow desert of the Midwest: 9.1”

Indy: 4.7”

The plumes in SW MI are some of the most impressive SREF outputs I’ve seen for this area with a cluster at 17-25” and a cluster at 25-35”.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...